The number of obese adults, along with related disease rates and health care costs, is on course to increase dramatically in Arizona over the next 20 years, according to F as in Fat: How Obesity Threatens America’s Future 2012, a report released today by Trust for America’s Health (TFAH) and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation (RWJF).
For the first time, the annual report includes an analysis that forecasts 2030 adult obesity rates in each state and the likely resulting rise in obesity-related disease rates and health care costs. By contrast, the analysis also shows that states could prevent obesity-related diseases and dramatically reduce health care costs if they reduced the average body mass index of their residents by just 5 percent by 2030. (For a six-foot-tall person weighing 200 pounds, a 5 percent reduction in BMI would be the equivalent of losing roughly 10 pounds.)
“This study shows us two futures for America’s health,” said Risa Lavizzo-Mourey, MD, RWJF president and CEO. “At every level of government, we must pursue policies that preserve health, prevent disease and reduce health care costs. Nothing less is acceptable.”
The analysis, which was commissioned by TFAH and RWJF and conducted by the National Heart Forum, is based on a peer-reviewed model published last year in The Lancet. Findings include:
Projected Increases in Obesity Rates
If obesity rates continue on their current trajectories, by 2030, the obesity rate in Arizona could reach 58.8 percent. According to the latest data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), in 2011, 24.7 percent of adults in the state were obese.
Nationally, by 2030, 13 states could have adult obesity rates above 60 percent, 39 states could have rates above 50 percent, and all 50 states could have rates above 44 percent. Mississippi could have the highest obesity rate at 66.7 percent, and Colorado could have the lowest obesity rate for any state at 44.8 percent.
Projected Increases in Disease Rates
Over the next 20 years, obesity could contribute to 728,569 new cases of type 2 diabetes, 1,517,230 new cases of coronary heart disease and stroke, 1,449,229 new cases of hypertension, 968,616 new cases of arthritis, and 217,683 new cases of obesity-related cancer in Arizona.
Currently, more than 25 million Americans have type 2 diabetes, 27 million have chronic heart disease, 68 million have hypertension and 50 million have arthritis. In addition, 795,000 Americans suffer a stroke each year, and approximately one in three deaths from cancer per year (approximately 190,650) are related to obesity, poor nutrition or physical inactivity.
Projected Increase in Health Care Costs
By 2030, obesity-related health care costs in Arizona could climb by 11.1 percent, which could be the 11th lowest increase in the country. Nationally, nine states could see increases of more than 20 percent, with New Jersey on course to see the biggest increase at 34.5 percent. Sixteen states and Washington, D.C., could see increases between 15 percent and 20 percent.
In the United States, medical costs associated with treating preventable obesity-related diseases are estimated to increase by $48 billion to $66 billion per year by 2030, and the loss in economic productivity could be between $390 billion and $580 billion annually by 2030. Although the medical cost of adult obesity in the United States is difficult to calculate, current estimates range from $147 billion to nearly $210 billion per year.
How Reducing Obesity Could Lower Disease Rates and Health Care Costs
If BMIs were lowered by 5 percent, Arizona could save 7.5 percent in health care costs, which would equate to savings of $ 13,642,000,000 by 2030.
The number of Arizona residents who could be spared from developing new cases of major obesity-related diseases includes:
154,737 people could be spared from type 2 diabetes,
114,546 from coronary heart disease and stroke,
112,018 from hypertension,
68,326 from arthritis, and
9,983 from obesity-related cancer.
“We know a lot more about how to prevent obesity than we did 10 years ago,” said Jeff Levi, PhD, executive director of TFAH. “This report also outlines how policies like increasing physical activity time in schools and making fresh fruits and vegetables more affordable can help make healthier choices easier. Small changes can add up to a big difference. Policy changes can help make healthier choices easier for Americans in their daily lives.”
On the basis of the data collected and a comprehensive analysis, TFAH and RWJF recommend making investments in obesity prevention in a way that matches the severity of the health and financial toll the epidemic takes on the nation. The report includes a series of policy recommendations, including:
* Fully implement the Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act, by implementing the school meal standards and updating nutrition standards for snack foods and beverages in schools;
* Protect the Prevention and Public Health Fund;
* Increase investments in effective, evidence-based obesity-prevention programs;
* Fully implement the National Prevention Strategy and Action Plan;
* Make physical education and physical activity a priority in the reauthorization of the Elementary and Secondary Education Act;
* Finalize the Interagency Working Group on Food Marketed to Children Guidelines;
* Fully support healthy nutrition in federal food programs; and
* Encourage full use of preventive health care services and provide support beyond the doctor’s office.
The full report with state rankings in all categories is available on TFAH’s website at www.healthyamericans.org and RWJF’s website at www.rwjf.org. TFAH and RWJF collaborated on the report, which was supported by a grant from RWJF.