Glimmer of Hope: 2010 Forecast
Submitted by Allie_Bell on Fri, 02/05/2010 - 3:33pm
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In his Linneman Letter, Dr. Linneman says, "we hit bottom around April 2009. However, let's be clear: government panic and subsequent market incursions both lengthened and deepened the cyclical recession that was underway in mid-2008, creating our third post-WWII 'super recession.'"
But it's not all bad news out there, Dr. Linneman continues later on in his letter to say, "The good news is that real GDP bottomed in May, while monthly job losses have slowed to near zero. Once job declines end, there will have been a net loss of about 7.24 million jobs over the duration of the current recession. This is equivalent to about 4 years of normal job growth, which is about 1.8 million jobs per year."
That is definitely good news to hear job losses have slowed, however, as most of us know the worst isn't over yet. "Not surprisingly, U.S. employment and unemployment continue to worsen, as they are lagging indicators," Dr. Linneman says. "However, we expect job gains to begin in March 2010."
... Job growth so soon? I'm not sure many in the commercial real estate industry would agree with this forecast, but Dr. Linneman has some facts to help back up his prediction: "Consumer confidence bottomed in November 2008 at 55.3, but stood at 67.4 one year later. We anticipate that it will continue a rolling rebound in 2010, much as it did in 1976 and 1983."
Well, history does tend to repeat itself. Let's hope it will continue to do so. |
"The recession is over!" Or at least that's what Dr. Peter Linneman says, who is the chief economist for
