I come across a lot of different viewpoints on where the commercial real estate industry stands daily. Each viewpoint ranges from overly optimistic to drumming up the depths of doom and gloom, but all of them convey the same message — one of fear and hope. Sometimes the two are so close together, some would not be able to tell the difference.
In one recent CoStar article, a local capital services company was quoted as saying, "The commercial real estate industry is a disaster waiting to happen." In that same article just a few paragraphs later, an East Coast firm states that there are still "signs of life in each sector." So which is it? CoStar tried to draw a fine line between the two, only to confirm that 2010 will meld both hope and fear into one sphere.
"Going into 2010, there is a sense the industry could mangle Franklin Roosevelt's famous quote: We have nothing to fear but fear itself. This year, the saying might go: We have nothing to fear but those things for which we hope." — CoStar
For every hope industry professionals have, there is an underlying fear tied directly to that hope. For example, CoStar quoted a CRE executive that stated, "I am excited by a return to basics that we are witnessing — a move away from chasing vague or general opportunistic strategies." He goes on to add, "I am concerned that one, the commercial lending market will be slow to react to the increase in activity and to accommodate it, and two, that managers won't recall the restraint and lack of underwriting standards that got them in trouble in the first place."
And as CoStar summarizes it:
"There in a nutshell is the irony that we are at a point in this recession where the dichotomy between hope and fear is so narrow that the two seem as one."
What are your thoughts about the hopes and fears of 2010?
Unemployment rate