Forecast 2010: The Valley and State’s Economy Will Take Years to Recover

Submitted by Janet_Perez on Wed, 12/02/2009 - 3:36pm

Arizona Ranks Last in Job GrowthSome of the top economists in the Valley gathered earlier today at the Phoenix Convention Center for the 46th Annual Economic Forecast Luncheon, co-sponsored by the economics department at Arizona State University’s W. P. Carey School of Business and JPMorgan Chase.

Lee McPheters, director of the JPMorgan Chase Economic Outlook Center at the W. P. Carey School of Business and editor of Economy@W. P. Carey, looked at the Valley and state economy. Anthony Chan, managing director and chief economist for JPMorgan Chase Private Client Services, commented on the U.S. economy and the financial sector. Elliott D. Pollack, CEO of Elliott D. Pollack and Company, spotlighted the state and Valley real estate and construction sectors.

McPheters says 2010 will be a recovery year in which the state will continue to post annual net job losses, with only comparably small increases in retail sales and personal income.


As for the state’s residential housing industry, McPheters expects an uptick in single-family home permits for 2010, but they will remain below Arizona’s historically high levels.

Pollack expects the housing market to remain shaky through next year and possibly 2011. He says the market’s health is being adversely affected by having a 60,000 to 80,000 excess home inventory, a large number of improved lots and the continuing high rate of foreclosures.

He says 2010 will be increasingly rough for the commercial real estate market, with vacancy rates for industrial and office buildings growing. Pollack says it is unlikely Phoenix will see construction of another major office building for five years

AZ Employment

Based on the graph alone, I

Submitted by camillevaldez on Wed, 05/26/2010 - 7:32am.
Based on the graph alone, I guess it isn't too much to hope for a better year. We're almost halfway through. I wonder if it is any better. Soakaway

Hopefully the year 2010 will

Submitted by Rohit on Tue, 01/05/2010 - 11:30pm.
Hopefully the year 2010 will be a year to bounce-back after faltering from deep economic depression. It will take gradually, since economic leaders will take a lot of considerations on this kind of mess. It is close to impossible to do very much – it isn't to say that no one can subsist, but subsisting and prospering are two different things. Since several states peg minimum wage to costs of living, recessions lead invariably to decreased wages – for instance, the Colorado minimum wage is being decreased by 3 cents an hour for that reason, to the federal minimum wage. That adds up to over $500 a year, about the average payday loan, and when you only make minimum wage, that's a lot of money