Tag Archives: carey school

carey school - graduate

More Than 2,000 Will Graduate From W. P. Carey School

More than 2,000 students will graduate from Arizona State University’s W. P. Carey School of Business next week. This is one of the biggest graduation classes ever for the school, known as one of the largest and highest-ranked business schools in the country. The president of the Phoenix Suns, a group of executives flying in from China, and a student who already started a nonprofit to help foster teens will be part of the ceremonies.

“We have another fantastic graduating class this year,” says W. P. Carey School of Business Dean Robert Mittelstaedt. “These students exemplify why our undergraduate, full-time MBA and part-time MBA programs are all ranked Top 30 by U.S. News & World Report. It’s another batch of high achievers.”

The school’s graduate-level convocation will include more than 900 students, most of them receiving MBAs, but others getting master’s degrees in accountancy, tax, information management, real estate development and health systems management. The event will be held Friday, May 4 at 5 p.m. at the Wells Fargo Arena in Tempe. The featured speaker will be Brad Casper, president of the Phoenix Suns basketball team, who is known for his community involvement and heavy focus on area schools.

In addition, about 20 of the 120 executives graduating from the school’s executive MBA program in Shanghai are traveling to Phoenix to participate in the Tempe ceremony. The Shanghai program educates some of the highest-level business and government leaders in China and is currently ranked among the Top 20 executive MBA programs in the world by the Financial Times, Britain’s equivalent of The Wall Street Journal. Past students have included the CEOs of Baosteel and Shanghai Electric, three vice governors of China’s major provinces, six city mayors, the chief executive officer of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, several bank chairmen and the chairman of Shanghai Airlines.

At the undergraduate level, more than 1,100 students are eligible to walk the stage, and more than a dozen different types of business degrees will be awarded. The undergraduate convocation is set for Thursday, May 3 at 8 a.m. at the Wells Fargo Arena. The main speaker will be Chris Spinella, chief executive officer of Apriva, which develops and advances smart-card technology and wireless applications for payment processing and secure mobile communications.

The graduates at this ceremony will include the winner of the spring 2012 Turken Family Outstanding Graduating Senior Award, Christos Makridis. He co-founded the Quanta Foundation LLC, an educational services company that connects high school students with high-profile university projects to produce research and multimedia materials. Makridis is also a McCord Scholar, an economics teaching assistant, chairman of the business school’s Dean’s Advisory Council and editor in chief of an international undergraduate-research journal on science policy at ASU.

Another finalist for the Turken Family award, Priya Nathan, co-founded a nonprofit to benefit young people. Partnered for Success helps foster and orphan youth successfully transition out of the foster care system in the Phoenix area. The program has been recognized by Fast Company magazine and was selected as an ASU Innovation Challenge grant winner twice.

“Many of these graduates are already making their mark well beyond the classroom,” says W. P. Carey School of Business Executive Dean Amy Hillman. “We have students who are small-business owners, working moms, members of the military and lots of others already making us proud. We look forward to their continued success.”

For more information on W. P. Carey School of Business, visit W. P. Carey School of Business’ website at wpcarey.asu.edu.

leadershiphorizontal

Learn The Principles Of Effective Leadership

Knowledge: Great companies and great leaders are often synonymous, but what does it take to be a great leader? Dr. Angelo Kinicki is professor of management at the W.P. Carey School of Business. As a consultant, Kinicki often works with top management teams. Here, Kinicki discusses the principles of transformational and managerial leadership in increasing the efficiency of executives and the companies they lead. (18:09)

money in vice

The Economic Recovery Begins In 2009, But It Will Be Slow Going

The national and state economies are expected to start feeling the effects of a recovery during the last quarter of 2009. However, the recovery over the next year will be slow, with unemployment continuing to rise and economic growth anemic at best. Meanwhile, the state’s expenditures are rising, even as revenue continues to fall, setting the stage for future budget cuts and an expected tax increase.

That was the consensus forecast unveiled by top economic experts from the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University and the Arizona governor’s office at the annual Economic Outlook Luncheon on May 20. Lee McPheters, director of the JPMorgan Chase Economic Outlook Center at W.P. Carey and editor of Economy@W.P. Carey, provided an overview of current economic conditions on the state and national level, and offered a forecast for the coming year.
“The economy is going to show some signs of recovery in the last part of 2009, but the way I like to look at this is that lots of our economic indicators will still be underwater in a sense — they just won’t be as far underwater,” he said. “We’ll probably see positive growth in GDP, we will see job losses getting smaller, but there will still be job losses. There will still be people claiming unemployment insurance and, of course, unemployment rates will still be going up.
“It’s going to be a deep, sort of U-shaped recovery and 2011 will probably be a pretty good year of job growth,” McPheters added. 
In the meantime, job losses will continue to mount. In March, with an over-the-year employment decline of 7.1 percent and 136,000 jobs lost, the Valley just edged out Detroit as the weakest large metro labor market in the nation. And even as the economy begins to recover, the Greater Phoenix area will still see its labor market contract by 1 percent in 2010, according to McPheters.
Nationally, McPheters stressed that while the current recession has been painful, it still is not on par with the Great Depression. The Great Depression was marked by four consecutive years of decreases in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), while the current recession is expected to result in four consecutive quarters of decrease in inflation-adjusted GDP. In fact, in the first year of the recession, the national GDP actually increased by 1.1 percent.
“During 2008, the first year of the recession, you would expect that the GDP would be decreasing,” he said. “Well, one of the factors holding it up was exports. Exports continued strong in the United States through 2008.”
This year, however, exports are expected to drop by 10 percent. That’s just one example of how the national and state economies will continue to struggle as the recovery begins to take hold. Another example is the expected freefall in the commercial real estate market, especially in Arizona.
“Commercial is the next shoe to drop and we have seen this pattern before,” McPheters said. “Even as you see residential (construction) begin to pick up, I think you can expect that commercial building is going to be very, very weak all the way through 2010 and probably 2011, because what we need to see is population growth come back and job growth to come back. There’s no point in building retail space and office space if the jobs are not there and the consumer is not coming out to shop.”
And it is consumers, who account for 71 percent of GDP, who really hold the key to the economic recovery.
“The consumer is the only part of this economy that can bring us back,” McPheters said. “Consumers are not going to come back into the game until home prices stop falling, until the stock market stabilizes, until they see unemployment rates have peaked out and job losses start to get smaller and smaller. And the consumer has to have confidence to buy, and believe it or not, the consumer has to back off of their inclination to save their money.”
In March, the savings rate as a percent of disposable income was 4.2 percent, up from 2.6 percent six months earlier. While increased savings are considered a good thing in robust economic times, a pullback by consumers as an economy tanks can have devastating effects. McPheters pointed out that for each 1 percent increase in the savings rate, approximately $100 billion are being pulled out of the consumer-spending stream.
However, McPheters expressed confidence that the very calamity that sent our state and national economies reeling will eventually add to Arizona’s attractiveness to new residents and businesses — falling home prices.
“Housing prices have now returned to the traditional level, where Arizona housing prices are now more affordable than the national average,” he said. “In 2005 and 2006, we had come to the point where we were one of the least affordable markets. That has turned around and it has turned around very quickly. Of course that has been very painful.”

Dennis Hoffman, director of the L. William Seidman Research Institute at W.P. Carey, agreed with McPheters, adding that he believes the state’s economic rebound will be strong.

“This of course is the big question: What kind of bounce will take place? Now, I’ll have to say that the dramatic shakeout in prices in housing, while it has been absolutely disastrous for a number of folk and put a lot of pressure in a lot of different places, it might set us up for a more robust recovery than I would have thought six to nine months ago,” he said. “The thinking is really, very, very simple; an attractive attribute of Arizona has historically been great climate, affordable housing and a place to get a job. That third aspect really doesn’t exist right now, but it could exist if our economy recovers at a little faster pace.”
In the economic downturns of the past four decades, Arizona has bounced back strongly, and Hoffman is confident history will repeat itself, especially if the state and Valley can re-create the environments that people from around the country have found so attractive.

However, a major wrench in making the state attractive again is Arizona’s current budget crunch. In fiscal year 2009, the state’s budget gap stands at $1.6 billion. In fiscal year 2010, that’s expected to almost double to $3 billion dollars. As the economy has worsened, unemployment has soared to almost 8 percent, foreclosures have skyrocketed and businesses have closed their doors. As a result, billions of dollars in revenue from income, property, sales and business taxes have evaporated. Conversely the need for state services has exploded.

“We’re really seeing the effects of the downturn in the economy, both in terms of state revenues — our collections are down at a very significant rate — and likewise, our caseloads are up at a very significant rate, because more of our citizens are in need of services,” said Eileen Klein, director of the Arizona Governor’s Office of Strategic Planning and Budgeting, adding that in the past two months alone the Arizona Health Care Cost Containment System (AHCCCS) has enrolled 50,000 people.
Hoffman pointed out that in the past, $48 to $50 out of every $1,000 of personal income had gone into the state’s general fund.

Investing man

Changing Investment Management Firms Can Be Costly

Patience, it turns out, can be indeed a virtue — especially for retirement plan sponsors. Sunil Wahal, professor of finance at the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University, and his co-authors compiled a database of hiring and firing decisions made by more than 3,700 plan sponsors between 1994 and 2003. The reasons plan sponsors change investment management firms vary, but often the sponsors hire firms that have recently earned significant excess returns.

However, Wahal and his team found that those high fliers do not perform as well after they are hired, and the fired firms sometimes go on to turn in impressive numbers. If plan managers had stayed with their original managers, Wahal says, their excess returns would have been larger than those delivered by the newly hired managers.

“When firing decisions are made, one needs to be very careful and cognizant of the costs involved,” Wahal says.

Factor costs into decisions
Wahal’s study of the selection and termination of investment management firms by plan sponsors looked at 9,684 hiring decisions by 3,737 plan sponsors between 1994 and 2003. The plan managers hired by the sponsors were responsible for delegating $737 billion in investments. The study also examined 933 firing decisions by 515 plan sponsors between 1996 and 2003. Nearly $117 billion of investments were impacted by those decisions.

“There is an enormous amount of money that is invested in the market by plan sponsors. These organizations make a lot of decisions about who gets to manage the assets for the beneficiaries,” Wahal observes. “Sometimes the hiring and firing decisions they make work well. Sometimes they don’t. The frictions involved in these decisions are costly to beneficiaries.”

The rationale for a change varies. Plan sponsors usually fire investment management firms for poor performance, but sometimes they act because of an organizational change. For example, the investment management firm may have gone through a merger, or a star stock picker or portfolio manager may have left. The plan sponsor also may decide to change direction with its investments, such as switching from running a large-cap stock portfolio to a bond portfolio.

Factors that point to success
Wahal found that consultants are hired to assist plan sponsors in nearly two-thirds of all hiring decisions. Excess returns from consultant-supported decisions are higher, consistent with the notion that a consultant’s expertise adds value when selecting managers. But there’s a downside to consultants. They often take the blame, in place of the firm’s treasurer, when a company with a defined benefits plan selects a plan manager that performs poorly. Even so, using a consultant led to a 3.7 percent increase in three-year, post-hiring returns.

The researchers also found that returns were higher as the size of the plan increased, presumably because the sponsors of bigger plans have more experience selecting investment managers. In addition, they discovered that plan sponsors like to hire investment management firms within their own states. The study found that those in-state, post-hiring returns were positive.

Despite evidence that a number of factors can predict success, plan sponsors typically selected investment management firms by screening their performance based on excess returns. Firms are usually hired after investment managers have done very well, with an average excess return of 13.8 percent three years before the hiring decision.
Yet, after an investment management firm was hired, the study found the excess returns were close to — or below — zero.

“It’s not that they do poorly,” Wahal explains, “they don’t do as well as they had been doing prior to being hired. In other words, when you chase returns, you chase hot hands. But those hot hands don’t seem to persist.”
Wahal also learned that three years after the firing decisions, excess returns were sometimes up, with performance-based firings resulting in bigger return reversals. In fact, it was discovered that had plan sponsors stayed with the fired investment managers, excess returns would be more than what the newly hired managers delivered at some horizons.

Transition costs can add up
When a plan sponsor decides to fire an investment manager, the sponsor then has to take those funds and provide them to the newly hired investment management firm. This process entails what are commonly referred to as transition costs, that is, the cost of selling the old portfolio and creating a new one. Wahal says that “such costs can frequently be as much as 2 percent, and add to any other losses that the plan sponsor might suffer.” So, the newly hired manager is expected not only to deliver superior returns, but also perhaps to recover the 2 percent transition costs. Wahal argues that “to the extent that we do not live in Lake Wobegon, this is quite a challenge.”

“What’s really important is that the firing and hiring process be set up very well,” he says. “You can’t be too quick to jump the gun on firing and hiring because those costs have to be factored into the decision. Someone’s going to bear that loss and typically it’s the beneficiaries of the plan sponsors.”

CDRates

CD Rates Inching Higher Again

Bank-issued certificates of deposit rates are inching up, but if your one-year CD is maturing, you’re probably not going to like what’s being offered. That’s because CD rates took a dramatic drop in the past year as the Federal Reserve marched through a series of reductions starting last summer. The downward spiral was triggered by a belt-tightening credit crunch and a pervasive housing downslide.

Rates plunged as much as 325 basis points in the past year, dropping to as low as 2 percent from 5.25 percent.

Early last summer, it was not uncommon to see banks offering 5 percent interest or more on certificates of deposit. Then came the steady stream of rate cuts, and CDs were paying in the neighborhood of 2 percent. Now we’re seeing rates flirting with 3 percent, and teasers that are a tempting couple of percentage points higher.

Does the move to higher ground indicate that an economic turnaround has begun? Not necessarily, say banking experts.

“Rates are down considerably from what a consumer could have gotten last summer,” says Herb Kaufman, professor of finance and vice chair of the Department of Finance at Arizona State University’s W. P. Carey School of Business. “Now they’ve come back a little bit. They’re trending up as banks try to rebuild their deposit base and retain the deposits they have.”

Kaufman and Rick Robinson, regional investment manager for Wells Fargo Wealth Management Group, agree that one of the reasons for the modest increase is the perception that the Fed is not likely to reduce interest rates anytime soon. Another factor is inflation.

Robinson says the Fed is taking a wait-and-see approach to determine how the economy responds to seven rate cuts and whether inflation will remain somewhat subdued or will increase.

Kaufman notes that inflation, fueled by gasoline and food prices, appears to be accelerating.

“As that happens — and the feds are very conscious of that — you can expect banks will have to reflect the rise in inflation with their CD rates,” Kaufman says.

A significant improvement in the credit market adds to the likelihood of CD rates continuing to drift upward through summer, Kaufman says. He expects to see CD rates somewhat higher than they were last spring.

Is the inching up of CD rates a good or bad sign for the economy?

“I’d say it’s a little bit of a good sign,” Kaufman says. “It wouldn’t happen if the Feds weren’t comfortable with the credit market. Concerns have eased. Banks are comfortable to bid up rates, which means some of the constipation in the credit market has eased.”

The rise in interest rates could be tied to various factors.

“It’s usually a signal that the economy is beginning to do well or that the Federal Reserve wants to slow down the economy,” Robinson says. “Or it could mean that interest rates go higher because of supply and demand, because of inflationary pressures.”

But Robinson cautions: “A small uptick in rates is not a signal that we’re out of the woods or that economic growth is turning around. I still think it will be subdued in the second half of 2008. We expected low growth for the first portion of this year, and we expect to pick up the pace slightly in the second half.”

Another word of caution for investors: “Some banks might offer teaser rates of 5 percent for three months,” Robinson says, “but when it matures and resets, the rate will be consistent with what other banks are offering. Any bank in Arizona must remain competitive with the bank on the opposite corner.”

The creep upward of CD rates is a good sign for aging investors who rely on income from these investments to maintain their lifestyle. Conversely, the drastic decrease in rates since last summer was hurtful, especially for seniors.

“There is less money in their pocket,” Robinson says. “As their CDs matured, if they reinvested their money they’re more likely earning less than they earned previously. They have less to live on.”

Kaufman, too, says the increase is a good sign for retirees, so long as the rise does not pose a threat to economic recovery. Because of the roller-coaster ride the stock market has been on, some investors seeking a safe haven switched to CDs covered by the FDIC.

The collapse of investment bank Bear Stearns & Co. in March spawned some movement to CDs and safer, less volatile investments, including government-backed bonds. Robinson calls it “a flight to quality.”

“In the summer of 2007, banks went through a confidence crisis,” Robinson says. “Investors were worried. Some banks experienced an outflow of deposits, given investor concerns over their viability. That concern seems to have lessened. As the crisis grows longer, more information becomes available, which lessens the panic. People can understand the viability of their institution.”

The reason for the subtle increase in CD rates is anybody’s guess.

“Some banks might be willing to take a loss on deposits to shore up their capital base,” Robinson says. “They may want to increase deposits because they see opportunities to make loans. There are myriad reasons why rates go up, fluctuating in small increments of five to 10 basis points. It could be strategic or market related.”