Tag Archives: Economic Club of Phoenix

Arizona Is Losing Economic Grounds To Other Southwestern States, 2008

Rebound for Arizona and U.S. Slows Down

Jobs, home prices and population growth are all slowly rebounding in Arizona. However, experts from the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University say we still have a long way to go, and the automatic federal budget cuts known as the sequester aren’t helping our momentum. The experts delivered their forecasts today at the annual Economic Outlook Luncheon sponsored by the Economic Club of Phoenix.

Research Professor Lee McPheters, director of the JPMorgan Chase Economic Outlook Center at the W. P. Carey School, confirmed Arizona is once again a Top 15 growth state for both employment and population, but we’re not back to normal levels. From 1960 to 2007, we routinely ranked among the Top 5 states for both employment and population growth. In the rough years from 2008 to 2011, we dropped down to No. 48 and No. 14 in those areas.

“Last year, we finally bounced back to No. 8 for employment growth and No. 7 for population growth,” said McPheters. “However, the sequester and other factors have been clouding the economy here in recent months, and the year-over-year job-growth ranking issued this March dropped Arizona down to No. 13. The state will have to wait a couple more years for full recovery.”

Arizona added 48,900 jobs in 2012. The state is projected to add 61,000 jobs this year. The fastest-growing industries are construction, wholesale trade, information, state government and leisure/hospitality.

“Arizona has gained back 39 percent of the 314,000 jobs we lost in the recession,” explained McPheters. “However, that’s a pace well behind the nation as a whole, which has regained 67 percent of its 8.8 million lost jobs.”

In recent years, population growth in Arizona had dropped from the state’s typical 2- to 3-percent range to less than 1 percent. Finally last year we popped back up to 1.3 percent.

Personal income may also be coming back. The consensus of Arizona Blue Chip economists shows growth in this area of 3.7 percent in 2012, 5.1 percent expected in 2013, and 6 percent expected in 2014.

“The bottom line is that Arizona is doing better than most states, but this will still be the seventh year in a row of lean, subpar growth for us,” said McPheters.

Dennis Hoffman, economics professor and director of the L. William Seidman Research Institute at the W. P. Carey School of Business, reiterated that Arizona is recovering more slowly from this recession than from others in the past. However, we are coming back stronger than the nation as a whole in most areas of the economy. Hoffman expects the United States to see 2- to 3-percent gross-domestic-product (GDP) growth this year. That will likely include more moderate job growth and low inflation.

“The economy is plodding along, assisted by the real-estate and stock-market recoveries, low fuel prices and innovation in the business world,” said Hoffman. “Still, we face a lot of uncertainty from our national-debt crisis, political squabbling in Washington, economic difficulties in Europe and China, and changing demographics. One huge issue remains the problem of future funding for Social Security and Medicare.”

At the state level, Hoffman says we’re going to be strongly affected by the decisions still to be made this year on possible Medicaid expansion, the loss of the temporary sales tax, the potential taxing of online sales, and other big issues. For now, state revenue has been coming back with the rebounding economy.

When it comes to the housing market, Mike Orr, director of the Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice at the W. P. Carey School of Business, delivered good news about the recovery. Specifically, the median Phoenix-area home price was up a whopping 58 percent from a low of $111,000 in May 2011 to $175,000 this March. Foreclosures were down 60 percent just over the last year from March 2012 to March 2013, and Orr expects foreclosure rates to dip below long-term averages by the end of next year. Also, less than 5 percent of Arizona home loans (not already in foreclosure) are delinquent now.

However, we do face some problems in the housing market. For one thing, there’s a chronic shortage of homes for sale. Now that there’s no flood of cheap foreclosures and short sales coming onto the market, buyers are dependent mostly on normal resales and new-home sales.

“Higher prices would normally bring more ordinary home sellers into the market, but many are either locked into their homes because of negative equity, or they’re simply waiting for prices to go up more,” explained Orr. “As a result, some buyers are turning to new-home sales, but developers are reluctant to overbuild as much as they did at the market peak. Therefore, we may see about 50,000 to 60,000 new people being added to our local population this year, but only around 12,000 new single-family homes being built.”

Today’s Economic Outlook Luncheon was held at the JW Marriott Desert Ridge Resort & Spa in Phoenix. The Economic Club of Phoenix hosts this event every spring, as one of its opportunities for Valley business leaders and others to network and engage. The club was founded by a group of prominent business executives called the Dean’s Council of 100, in conjunction with the W. P. Carey School of Business. More information about the club can be found at www.wpcarey.asu.edu/ecp.

Today’s presentations will be posted at knowWPCarey, the business school’s online resource, at http://knowwpcarey.com.

deal

ASU program helps leaders of small businesses

The fifth annual Small Business Leadership Academy at the W. P. Carey School of Business at ASU helps small business owners and executives learn how to improve efficiency, streamline operations and raise profits.

“Classes are held just one night per week, so they fit right into busy executives’ schedules,” said Dawn Feldman, executive director of the W. P. Carey School of Business Center for Executive and Professional Development, which hosts the program. “Participants not only take away great business knowledge, but also a new support network of peers that will exist long after the program is over.”

Salt River Project (SRP), the program’s founding co-sponsor, offers a number of scholarships to its current suppliers and small business customers.

“The academy offers an outstanding opportunity for small business owners to gain knowledge from highly acclaimed professors and establish lasting relationships with other community small business owners,” said Carrie Young, senior director, corporate operations services for SRP. “The partnership we have with ASU, coupled with the sponsorship and scholarships we offer to the academy, is a natural fit for SRP in supporting economic development within our own community.”

As part of a larger partnership with ASU focused on small business support, JPMorgan Chase is also a top sponsor, providing 15 scholarships to the academy.

“As Arizona’s number one SBA lender, we know how important small businesses are to our economy,” said Joe Stewart, chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase in Arizona.

Participants must come from companies that have been in business for at least three years; have annual revenues between $1 million and $10 million; and have fewer than 100 employees.

For more information, call (480) 965-7579, e-mail wpcarey.execed@asu.edu or visit wpcarey.asu.edu/sbla.

speakers

Hear from Top Business Leaders in the New ECP Season

Top leaders from Sam’s Club, Intel, the United Services Automobile Association (USAA), and the Arizona Diamondbacks are among those taking the stage during the current season of the Economic Club of Phoenix speaker series. Every year, Phoenix-area audiences are invited to attend the club’s luncheons and hear from some of the biggest names in the business world.

“We want Valley businesspeople to be able to hear from the heads of major local companies and top executives from international firms,” says W. P. Carey School of Business Dean Robert Mittelstaedt. “This series brings leaders from a variety of industries to talk about what’s happening in their own companies, as well as in the business arena as a whole.”

The Economic Club of Phoenix (ECP) was founded by a group of prominent business executives called the Dean’s Council of 100, in conjunction with the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University. The club is now the preeminent Arizona forum for the exchange of ideas about business and the economy. Its monthly luncheons and other activities offer business leaders and others opportunities to network and engage.

This season’s speaker lineup (subject to change) is:

Thursday, Nov. 8 – William Toler, chief executive officer, AdvancePierre Foods; Matt Wilson, managing director, Oaktree Capital Management
Wednesday, Jan. 23 – Derrick Hall, president and chief executive officer, Arizona Diamondbacks
Tuesday, Feb. 12, 2013 – Charles Redfield, executive vice president of merchandising, Sam’s Club
Tuesday, March 19 – Doug Davis, vice president and general manager, Arizona fab/sort manufacturing site, Intel Corporation
Thursday, April 25 – Maj. Gen. Josue Robles Jr., president and chief executive officer, United Services Automobile Association (USAA), Dean’s Council of 100 Executive of the Year
Thursday, May 16 – Annual Economic Outlook Luncheon

All luncheons run from 11:30 a.m. to 1:30 p.m. The November event will take place at JW Marriott’s Camelback Inn in Scottsdale, with the rest of the locations still to be announced.

Non-members are welcome for a $75 luncheon fee. Funds in excess of the cost of lunch are used to support scholarships and faculty research at the W. P. Carey School of Business.

For more information about the club or to reserve seats, call (480) 727-0596, e-mail wpcarey.ecp@asu.edu or go to www.econclubphx.org.

Top Business Leaders will speak in the New ECP Season

Top leaders from the NFL Network, Harkins Theatres, the United Services Automobile Association (USAA), and the Arizona Diamondbacks are among those who will take the stage during the new season of the Economic Club of Phoenix speaker series. Every year, Phoenix-area audiences are invited to attend the club’s luncheons and hear from some of the biggest names in the business world.

“We want Valley businesspeople to be able to hear from the heads of major local companies and top executives from international firms,” says W. P. Carey School of Business Dean Robert Mittelstaedt. “This series brings leaders from a variety of industries to talk about what’s happening in their own companies, as well as in the business arena as a whole.”

The Economic Club of Phoenix (ECP) was founded by a group of prominent business executives called the Dean’s Council of 100, in conjunction with the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University. The club is now the preeminent Arizona forum for the exchange of ideas about business and the economy. Its monthly luncheons and other activities offer business leaders and others opportunities to network and engage.

This season’s speaker lineup (subject to change) is:

Thursday, Oct. 11 – Dan Harkins, owner and chief executive officer, Harkins Theatres
Thursday, Nov. 8 – William Toler, president and chief executive officer, AdvancePierre Foods
Wednesday, Jan. 23 – Derrick Hall, president and chief executive officer, Arizona Diamondbacks
February – TBA
Wednesday, March 13 – Kim Williams, chief operating officer and chief financial officer, NFL Business Ventures/NFL Network
Thursday, April 25 – Maj. Gen. Josue Robles Jr., president and chief executive officer, United Services Automobile Association (USAA), Dean’s Council of 100 Executive of the Year
Thursday, May 16 – Annual Economic Outlook Luncheon

All luncheons run from 11:30 a.m. to 1:30 p.m. The first event will take place at the JW Marriott Desert Ridge Resort & Spa in Phoenix, with the rest of the locations still to be announced.

Non-members are welcome for a $75 luncheon fee. Funds in excess of the cost of lunch are used to support scholarships and faculty research at the W. P. Carey School of Business.

For more information about the club or to reserve seats, call (480) 727-0596, e-mail wpcarey.ecp@asu.edu or go to www.econclubphx.org.