Tag Archives: global economic growth

Global Economy

With The Global Economy, Far-Off Natural Disasters And Wars Affect Us All

Today, the United States, China, Japan, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom are among the largest economies in the world. Each of them has grown significantly in past decades and provides our global world with needed goods and services. This was not always the case; politics, religion and cultural differences kept us from working together. Throughout time, many of our leaders have put their best foot forward to improve our government relationships. As improvements in technology, communication and transportation evolve it has allowed us to grow globally.

On one hand, global economic growth is great. But on the other hand, being a global economy also has its drawbacks. As our economies work together and we rely more and more on each other, we have become more vulnerable. For example, war, government policies, political leaders and natural catastrophic situations can affect all of us. There are certainly pros and cons to having a global economy, but given recent events many of us may question this direction.

The recent situation in the Middle East and the tragic earthquake and tsunami in Japan show us how our markets and social humanity can affect not only that country, but also the rest of the world. Since the rebellious strikes in Libya, we have seen a spike in gas prices, commodities and will incur a great financial obligation for the military efforts to help the civilians of Libya. Also, the rebuilding of Japan will be very costly and cause slower production of their goods and services for quite some time. Not only is it a devastating situation for the people of Japan, but it also will hurt them economically for years to come.

Analysts have spent countless hours struggling to quantify the effects and make projections about how these situations will affect our global economy. Until it’s behind us and we look back on history we will not know the full impact

Without a doubt, economically we are more dependent today on other countries to provide importing and exporting of goods and services for growth. We will continue to experience this progression in our future, so we must adapt and learn to change as our environment changes.

Projections

Fewer Jobs Will Be Lost This Year, But Growth Will Remain Slow In 2011

In an updated forecast released today, the Arizona Department of Commerce Forecast reports that the state’s nonfarm job losses for 2010 have been revised downwardly. The department now forecasts that the state’s economy will lose 25,700 jobs this year, as opposed to the 50,400 originally forecast. However, the department also revised its forecast on how many nonfarm jobs Arizona’s economy will create in 2011, from 23,100 to 16,500. The fact that Arizona will be losing fewer jobs this year is being attributed to:

  • Federal government economic stimulus program spending that began in 2009.
  • Continued employment growth in the education and health services sector.
  • Improved job growth in the professional and business services; trade, transportation, and utilities; leisure and hospitality; and natural resources and mining sectors.
  • Stronger than anticipated global economic growth.


The downward revision in 2011’s job growth rate is being attributed to:

  • Tepid growth in the private sector due to sluggish business and consumer spending.
  • Large state and local government budget deficits.
  • A slowdown in population growth.
  • Limited consumer and small business lending by banks.


Gains in five sectors and losses in six sectors are expected over the two-year period (2009 to 2011). The major sectors in the Arizona economy where job gains are forecast include: educational and health services; professional and business services; trade, transportation and utilities; leisure and hospitality; and natural resources and mining. Sectors with projected job losses during the same time period include: government; construction; financial activities; information; manufacturing; and other services.

Arizona Sector Employment
Average Annual Over-the-Year Change


2009

2010

2011

Total Nonfarm

-7.3%

-1.1%

0.7%

Manufacturing

-11.6

-3.0%

1.3%

Natural Resources/Mining

-17.8%

1.8%

12.3%

Construction

-30.8%

-11.8%

1.8%

Trade, Trans. & Utilities

-7.1%

0.6%

0.6%

Information

-6.4%

-6.4%

-2.9%

Financial Activities

-5.0%

-3.2%

-1.6%

Professional & Business Svcs

-10.4%

-0.3%

2.8%

Educational & Health Svcs

2.7%

2.6%

1.8%

Leisure & Hospitality

-5.2%

0.4%

0.8%

Other Services

-6.6%

-2.1%

2.0%

Government

-2.2%

-1.8%

-1.9%


Total Nonfarm Employment
Annual Average Growth Rate

2009

2010

2011

Arizona

-7.3%

-1.1%

0.7%

Phoenix MSA

-7.9%

-1.0%

0.8%

Tucson MSA

-5.1%

-1.1%

0.4%

Rest of State

-6.4%

-1.1%

0.6%