Tag Archives: Mike Orr

200392710-001

Valley Partnership reveals reality of residential real estate

Valley Partnership has announced the topic for its upcoming monthly breakfast on Friday, April 17. The month’s program will feature an update on the Valley’s residential real estate market in 2014.

Panelists will discuss whether 2015 will be more of the same or if the industry will finally see the uptick many believe is around the corner.

The panel will feature residential analysts Mike Orr, Director of the Center for Real Estate Theory & Practice at Arizona State University, and Jim Belfiore, President of Belfiore Real Estate Consulting.

The panel will also feature Greg Abrams, Vice President of Land for Taylor Morrison’s Phoenix Division, and Tom Lemon, Vice President of Land Acquisitions and Development for Maracay Homes.

The strong return of single-family home development is essential to the Valley’s full economic recovery,” said Cheryl Lombard, CEO and President of Valley Partnership. “We keep hearing that full recovery is ‘right around the corner’ and first quarter numbers have been promising. This group of experts will unpack that data and give our partners an in-depth look at what they can expect this year and in coming years.”

In addition to the panel, this month’s Mayor’s Minute will feature Cathy Carlat of the City of Peoria. Mayor Carlat will speak on economic development policies, current projects in her community, as well as future opportunities for the commercial real estate and development community.

Registration begins at 7 a.m.; program begins at 7:45 a.m. To register, please visit www.valleypartnership.org and click on the “Monthly Breakfast” tab.

Luxury Home - AZ Business Magazine November 2008

Expect a stronger spring in the Phoenix housing market

Expect to see a stronger spring this year in the Phoenix housing market than we saw last year. January was the “lull before the storm,” according to the latest monthly report from the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University. Here are the highlights of that report on Maricopa and Pinal counties for January:

  • The median single-family-home sales price went up 5.6 percent from January 2014 to January 2015 — $197,000 to $208,000.
  • Condos and townhomes continue to gain a larger share of the market.
  • Preliminary February figures show demand about to boom, with the number of homes under contract dramatically rising.

After the housing crash, Phoenix-area home prices quickly rose from September 2011 to summer 2013. Then, the median single-family home price went up about another 5.6 percent from last January to this January – from $197,000 to $208,000. Realtors will note the average price per square foot gained 5.1 percent.

Condos and townhomes picked up even more momentum, with their median price up 11.6 percent – from $121,000 to $135,000. While single-family home sales activity dropped 7 percent from last January to this January, townhome and condo sales activity rose 6 percent. In fact, the amount of money spent on mid-range townhomes and condos was up an incredible 54 percent. Orr credits interest in easy-to-maintain homes.

Despite the attached-home phenomenon, though, the Phoenix market experienced relatively weak home-sales activity both last year and in January. However, things finally appear ready to change.

“January is always a quiet month, but we believe this was a lull before the storm,” explains the new report’s author, Mike Orr, director of the Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice at the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University. “We have already seen early signs of much stronger activity from buyers in February and March. Looking at the number of homes going under contract, there was significantly increased demand in the lower and middle price ranges.”

Orr notes that listings for non-distressed homes under contract in the Phoenix area were up 26 percent from last year on a typical day in February. Listings from $150,000 to $600,000 were up more than 30 percent. He attributes this largely to lenders starting to relax their tight loan-underwriting guidelines and “boomerang buyers” who went through foreclosure or short sale being able to come back into the market.

Rental homes are also doing well.

“With relatively fast turnover and low vacancy rates, rents have been increasing in the most popular locations,” says Orr. “We are currently seeing a 5.8-percent rise over the last 12 months across the Greater Phoenix area.”

However, supply is an issue when it comes to all types of homes, including affordably priced rentals, which Orr says are at the lowest level he has seen in 14 years. Single-family home listings (excluding those under contract) were down 7 percent on Feb. 1 from the already depressed level at the same time last year.

“Supply remains relatively low except at the high end of the market,” Orr says. “At the moment, we are seeing early signs that demand is likely to recover quite a bit faster than supply. It would only take a modest increase in first-time home buyer demand to overwhelm the current weak level of supply, making it tougher to find affordable homes for sale.”

Don’t expect more supply to come from foreclosures. Completed foreclosures were down 43 percent from last January to this January.

One last note: Orr says home builders aren’t enjoying 2015 much yet. In January, newly built single-family homes hit their lowest monthly sales total in three years. However, he expects that trend to reverse, too.

Those wanting more Valley housing data can subscribe to Orr’s monthly reports at www.wpcarey.asu.edu/realtyreports. The premium site includes statistics, charts, graphs and the ability to focus in on specific aspects of the market. More analysis is also available at the W. P. Carey School of Business “Research and Ideas” website at http://research.wpcarey.asu.edu.

housing.prices

Phoenix-area housing market sees uptick

The sluggish Phoenix-area housing market just got a pleasant surprise. New figures show a sudden uptick in buyer demand, with a significant boost in homes under contract since late January.

“I do NOT think this has anything to do with the crowds that came in for the recent Super Bowl in Arizona, but that is coincidentally when we started to see this rise in demand,” says Mike Orr, director of the Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice at the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University.

Orr looked at statistics from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) for his W. P. Carey School of Business analysis. In 2014, the Phoenix-area housing market had relatively low demand, and sales activity even dropped 14 percent. However, the new ARMLS numbers show this year has already brought in more than the usual seasonal uptrend in almost every price range.

These numbers are for non-distressed homes under contract in Maricopa and Pinal Counties, on a typical day in late February 2015 versus the same day in 2014:

  • Under $150,000 – Up 7 percent
  • $150,000 to $250,000 – Up 35 percent
  • $250,000 to $400,000 – Up 38 percent
  • $400,000 to $600,000 – Up 33 percent
  • $600,000 to $1.5 million – Up 12 percent
  • More than $1.5 million – Down 10 percent

Overall, non-distressed listings under contract are up 26 percent. Orr says luxury homes aren’t seeing as much impact from recent changes in market conditions, but entry-level and mid-range homes are attracting far more buyer interest.

“The reasons for these increases include: 1.) that lenders have started to relax their previously tight loan-underwriting guidelines and 2.) that more people who went through foreclosure or short sale are now able to return to homeownership,” explains Orr. “These changes largely affect the lower and middle ranges of the market.”

Orr calculates that, in 2014, the median single-family-home price in the Phoenix area went up 5.4 percent. He now expects 2015 to be a much better year for home sellers, if the new trend continues. However, he does have one note of caution.

“The Phoenix area was already dealing with a relatively low supply of available homes for sale before this uptick,” says Orr. “If the higher-demand trend continues for several months, then that tight supply could become a bigger issue.”

Orr’s next regularly-scheduled monthly housing report will be out in mid-March. Meantime, those wanting more Valley housing data can subscribe to Orr’s monthly reports at www.wpcarey.asu.edu/realtyreports. The premium site includes statistics, charts, graphs and the ability to focus in on specific aspects of the market. More analysis is also available at the W. P. Carey School of Business “Research and Ideas” website at http://research.wpcarey.asu.edu.

housing.prices

Phoenix home prices rose 5 percent in 2014

The final numbers are out for 2014, and the median single-family-home prices in the Phoenix area officially went up 5.4 percent. That’s according to the latest monthly report from the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University. Here are the highlights of that report on Maricopa and Pinal counties, as of December:

• The median single-family-home sales price rose 5.4 percent in 2014 – from $204,000 to $215,000.
• Demand for townhomes and condos is strengthening, and the median sales price for those types of homes went up a whopping 15 percent in 2014.
• Demand for rental homes also remains strong.

After the housing crash, Phoenix-area home prices shot up from September 2011 to summer 2013. Then, the median single-family-home price rose just another 5.4 percent — $204,000 to $215,000 — from December 2013 to December 2014. Realtors will note the average price per square foot went up about 3 percent. At the same time, townhomes and condos really took off, with their median sales price up about 15 percent – from $123,900 to $142,000.

“The most promising signs in 2014 were for townhomes and condominiums, where both sales volumes and prices were higher than expected,” says the report’s author, Mike Orr, director or the Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice at the W. P. Carey School of Business. “Demand is shifting away from single-family homes and toward smaller attached homes that are easier to maintain and to ‘lock and leave.’ Growing numbers of baby boomers, whose children have grown up and left, are downsizing. Many millennials also seem to show a preference for smaller, easy-to-maintain homes in central locations.”

Orr adds that mid-range and luxury homes continue to do relatively well in the Phoenix market, while it’s tougher to find homes priced below $150,000. The amount of single-family home sales overall was up 3 percent from December 2013 to December 2014.

Meantime, the supply level remains low. The number of active listings available on Jan. 1, 2015 was down 3 percent from the already low level of Jan. 1, 2014. Fewer “distressed” homes are coming onto the market, with completed foreclosures down 42 percent from December 2013 to December 2014. That lack of cheap inventory is keeping investor interest significantly lower than it was during the initial housing recovery.

Other home buyers weren’t filling the gap, but we may see a positive turn soon.

“We anticipate a modest increase in sales in 2015, as compared with 2014,” says Orr. “The primary increase in demand is likely to come from boomerang buyers who have repaired their credit after foreclosure or short sale several years ago.”

Multifamily units and rental homes continue to command local attention. The multifamily vacancy rate for the end of 2014 was at an all-time low, and multifamily construction permits have been on a strong upward trend. Rental homes are seeing relatively fast turnover and low vacancy rates. As a result, rents are up 6.8 percent in the Phoenix area over the past 12 months.

Lastly, Orr mentions that some Canadians may decide to lock in profits made on Phoenix-area homes bought since the housing crash. In 2014 alone, the prices went up an additional 15 percent when converted to the Canadian dollar.

Those wanting more Valley housing data can subscribe to Orr’s monthly reports at www.wpcarey.asu.edu/realtyreports. The premium site includes statistics, charts, graphs and the ability to focus in on specific aspects of the market. More analysis is also available at the W. P. Carey School of Business “Research and Ideas” website at http://research.wpcarey.asu.edu.

housing.prices

Are investors returning to Phoenix housing market?

Investors appear to be returning to the Phoenix-area housing market. The latest monthly report from the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University examines that new trend, as well as the possibility of a future supply problem. Here are the highlights of the new report on Maricopa and Pinal counties, as of November:

  • The median single-family-home sales price went up 5.5 percent from November 2013 to November 2014 – from $200,000 to $210,990.
  • President Obama announced a housing plan in Phoenix last week that might help create both more demand and a supply problem.
  • Investors are returning to Phoenix, with their percentage of the area’s home purchases up over the past four months.

After the housing crash, Phoenix-area home prices shot up from September 2011 to summer 2013. Then, the median single-family-home price rose just another 5.5 percent from November 2013 to November 2014. Realtors will note the average price per square foot went up about 5 percent. The median townhome/condo sales price actually dropped 2 percent.

“Prices in the Phoenix-area housing market remained relatively flat in 2014, when you take into account the general level of inflation,” says the report’s author, Mike Orr, director of the Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice at the W. P. Carey School of Business. “When you look at the change in the mix of sales – with more expensive luxury homes being sold – there is not much real upward price momentum.”

Orr adds there also isn’t much downward price momentum because both supply and demand remain relatively low. The number of single-family-home sales dropped 9 percent from November 2013 to November 2014. The low demand has largely been masking the fact that the market also has a low supply of homes – a situation that appears to be getting worse.

“The rate of new listings has dropped significantly since April, and active listings even dropped slightly in November, which is unusual and signals a weakening supply,” explains Orr. “It would not take much of an increase in demand to overwhelm the current level of supply, and if this occurs, we should expect prices to start rising once more. We will have to wait and see how first-time home buyers react to the new lending environment in 2015.”

Orr’s concern about the potential supply problem stems from a number of things meant to stimulate housing demand:

  • Down payments being reduced to 3 percent on certain Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac conventional loans
  • Continued drops in mortgage interest rates for all types of loans
  • Reduced mortgage insurance premiums announced by President Obama in Phoenix last week

Orr weighed in on the president’s new housing initiative by saying it may help middle-income renters buy their first homes. However, he also doesn’t think the overall impact will be that great.

“By the government’s own numbers, it will only add 250,000 sales nationally over the next three years – increasing sales only about 1.6 percent,” Orr says. “It’s a step in the right direction, but only a small step. A resurgence in home buying will probably occur anyway.”

Meantime, foreclosures remain well below long-term averages for the Valley. Completed foreclosures were down 39 percent from November 2013 to November 2014. Earlier, the loss of these bargain properties prompted a trend of investors leaving the Phoenix area for cheaper areas of the country, but now, that’s changing. The percentage of residential properties bought by investors was up to about 16 percent in November, the highest level since May. All-cash purchases are also back on the upswing.

“While investor purchases are still below the peak levels we saw in the Phoenix area after the housing crash, the levels have started to recover over the last four months,” says Orr. “However, we may see fewer international buyers in the market now because of the recent dramatic rise in the value of the dollar against most foreign currencies.”

Rental-housing demand in the Valley remains strong, partly because many people had their credit damaged during the housing crash and because millennials are waiting until later in life to enter the home market. Rents rose 4.8 percent in the Phoenix area from November 2013 to November 2014.

Those wanting more Valley housing data can subscribe to Orr’s monthly reports at www.wpcarey.asu.edu/realtyreports. They also hear directly from Mike Orr about his latest housing report at an event co-hosted by The Arizona Republic and the W. P. Carey School of Business tomorrow morning at Arizona State University. More information and tickets are available attickets.azcentral.com.

Phoenix-Area Housing Market

How to survive the Phoenix-area housing market

The new year brings new challenges for those who want to buy or sell homes in the Phoenix area. Do you know what to expect? The Arizona Republic and the ASU Real Estate Council at the W. P. Carey School of Business will host an event Saturday, Jan. 17 to help you find out the current trends and prices in the market.

“Phoenix Housing Market Explained III,” a third annual event, will feature an overview of the local housing market, including trends like employment and population growth. The experts will also answer submitted questions from the audience.

The speakers – all experts frequently quoted in the media — will be:

Catherine Reagor, senior real estate reporter for The Arizona Republic
Mike Orr, director of the Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice at the W. P. Carey School of Business
Mark Stapp, director of the Master of Real Estate Development (MRED) program at the W. P. Carey School of Business

Reagor says, “We hope to provide helpful information to both those in the real estate industry and those who are thinking about buying or selling their own homes in the Phoenix area.”

The event will be held in the Business Administration C-Wing Building, or BAC, at 400 E. Lemon St. on Arizona State University’s campus in Tempe. Registration starts at 9 a.m., followed by the presentations and discussion from 9:30 to 11 a.m. The cost is $30 per person, with a 30-percent discount available for subscribers to The Arizona Republic and ASU students, employees and alums.

Parking is available just across the street at the intersection of Apache Boulevard and Normal Avenue. Signage will direct participants from the garage to room BAC 116 on the first floor of the BAC building.

Space is limited, and you can register at tickets.azcentral.com. More information about the event can be found at www.money.azcentral.com, www.wpcarey.asu.edu, or by calling (480) 965-8517.

More information on the Valley housing market can also be found at the W. P. Carey School of Business website, including monthly housing reports available via subscription at www.wpcarey.asu.edu/realtyreports.

housing.prices

Phoenix housing market ending relatively flat year

After several years of wild roller-coaster activity, the Phoenix-area housing market is ready to end a relatively flat year. That’s according to the latest monthly report from the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University. Here are the highlights of the new report on Maricopa and Pinal counties, as of October:

• The median single-family-home sales price went up just 4 percent from last October to this October – from $200,000 to $208,000.
• Demand remains lower than last year, with sales of single-family homes down 5 percent from last October.
• The Valley is experiencing a very small bump up in two areas – investor interest and new-home sales.

After the housing crash, Phoenix-area home prices shot up from September 2011 to summer 2013. Then, the median single-family-home price rose just 4 percent more – from $200,000 to $208,000 – from last October to this October. Realtors will note the average price per square foot also went up 4 percent. The median townhome/condo sales price rose only 2 percent.

“We’ve seen very little change in the Greater Phoenix housing market for the last year, and stability is the order of the day,” says the report’s author, Mike Orr, director of the Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice at the W. P. Carey School of Business. “Price increases look tame over the last 12 months and even tamer if you examine just the last six months. There is no longer any real upward price momentum greater than the general level of inflation.”

Orr’s report notes that demand in the market remains lower than last year. In fact, the amount of single-family-home sales dropped 5 percent from last October to this October. Activity from first-time home buyers has been unusually low, in part because some people had their credit badly damaged during the housing crash and also because millennials are waiting to enter the home market until later in life than previous generations. These are also reasons the rental market is strong. Rents have increased 3.7 percent over the last 12 months in the Phoenix area.

Meantime, Valley foreclosures have dropped way down over the past year. Completed foreclosures of single-family and condo homes were down 19 percent from last October to this October. The lack of cheap foreclosures here has been largely driving investors to other areas of the country, where bargains are more plentiful. However, there was a little bump back up between this September and October. The percentage of residential properties bought by investors hit 15.5 percent, the highest level since May, but still well below last year’s levels.

“Investors and out-of-state buyers are showing a small recovery in buying interest, but to get our market back to what we would consider normal will still require a major increase in demand from local first-time home buyers,” explains Orr.

Some expect the coming introduction of conventional home loans with a lower, 3-percent down payments next year to stimulate more interest, but Orr isn’t sure this will make a major dent. He anticipates small, incremental improvements.

“The big economic gains of the last few years have helped companies, but not necessarily the average person who might consider taking out a home loan,” says Orr.

One other note from Orr: The market share for new-home sales is doing better and has recovered to 14 percent – the same level as October 2013. Taylor Morrison, Pulte Homes and Meritage Homes are leading the way in the Phoenix area.

Those wanting more Valley housing data can subscribe to Orr’s monthly reports at www.wpcarey.asu.edu/realtyreports. The premium site includes statistics, charts, graphs and the ability to focus in on specific aspects of the market. More analysis is also available at the W. P. Carey School of Business “Research and Ideas” website at http://research.wpcarey.asu.edu.

Land Advisors, WEB

Metro Phoenix Land and Housing Forecast examines ‘refined opportunity’

While the industry has experienced sub-par housing activity over the past 11 months, the anticipated pace of growth going forward depends on a few factors, not the least of which is credit and qualification conditions, household formation, employment growth, the cost of new construction and outsiders’ perceptions of the local market. What are the expectations for growth in the nation’s economy, real estate capital markets, and residential real estate? Will these perceptions of a “refined opportunity” in real estate change how you operate your business now and in the future?

On Wednesday, December 10, 2014 the Land Advisors Organization will bring together a distinguished group of industry experts including Tim Sullivan (Meyers LLC), Nick Taratsas (DMB), Joel Shine (Woodside Homes), Mike Orr (Arizona State University, W. P. Carey School of Business), Don Garner (Alliance Bank of Arizona) and Matt Cody (Cachet Homes), to provide their considerable insight. Greg Vogel, CEO of Land Advisors Organization will moderate the panel.

Event Information:
DATE:        Wednesday, December 10, 2014
TIME:        2:30 Registration, 3:00 Program, 5:00 Networking Reception
LOCATION:    Sheraton Downtown Phoenix
COST:        $100 per person; $75 for public agencies and officials ($25 increase after Dec. 3)
REGISTER:    www.landadvisorsevents.com

All net proceeds benefit New Pathways for Youth and Arizona State University Real Estate Programs.

Since 1989, New Pathways for Youth has transformed the lives of more than 2,600 at-risk youth through mentoring. Their programs are designed to build self-esteem and leadership skills, increase school attendance and performance, end gang activity and violence and decrease substance abuse.

The Division of Real Estate at the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University provides the research and experience-based expertise necessary to address challenges in the contemporary real estate industry. Real estate faculty members bring real-world expertise into the classroom. Their collaboration and vision have contributed to an international real estate projects emphasizing ethical and responsible development that enhances community value and vibrancy and is sustainable and financially successful.

For companies interested in supporting this event and its chosen charity, they can review the sponsorship opportunities.

housing.prices

Could Looser Lending Standards Boost Phoenix Market?

Will banks start to drop their standards and let people with slightly lower credit scores and much lower down payments buy homes? That’s the big question, after the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and other agencies voted to approve new, looser lending rules this week. A well-known expert from the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University says if the change happens, and the adjustments are reasonable, then it could be good for the Phoenix-area housing market, stimulating growth.

Here are the highlights of the school’s monthly housing-market report on Maricopa and Pinal counties, as of August:

• The median single-family-home sales price went up 11 percent from last August, but that’s largely just due to having fewer sales clustered at the bottom end of the market.
• Both supply and demand in the market remain relatively low.
• Lenders have been reluctant to expand the number of people eligible for home loans, which is helping to stunt market growth.

After the housing crash, the Phoenix area had a fast boost in home prices from September 2011 to last summer. This year, prices leveled off and then rose somewhat. The median single-family-home price went up 11 percent – from $192,000 to $213,500 — from last August to this August. The average price per square foot jumped 7 percent. The median townhouse/condominium price went up 10 percent. However, the report’s author explains the median gains are not reflective of higher home values across the board.

“The median went up largely just because we saw a big drop in sales clustered at the low end of the market,” explains Mike Orr, director of the Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice at the W. P. Carey School of Business. “The average price per square foot actually dropped last month. I expect prices to move sideways to slightly down over the next few months until supply and demand get back into balance.”

Both supply and demand are relatively low in the Phoenix-area housing market right now. Single-family-home sales activity dropped 15 percent from last August to this August. Investor interest, in particular, has dramatically fallen over the last year. The percentage of homes bought by investors in August was 14.4 percent, way down from the peak of 39.7 percent in July 2012. There aren’t a lot of cheap “distressed” homes to buy, with completed Phoenix-area foreclosures down 43 percent from last August to this August.

“Better bargains for investors can be found in other parts of the country,” says Orr. “Over the last three months, the percentages of homes bought by investors have been lower than we have seen for many years, confirming investors are no longer driving the market the way they did between early 2009 and mid-2013.”

Rental homes remain popular for those who don’t want to buy a house or who can’t qualify for a home loan. Fast turnover and low vacancy rates have already pushed rents up 5.8 percent over the last year in the Phoenix area.

Meantime, we’re seeing a lot of speculation about whether banks will lower their standards and start letting people with good – but not great – credit scores qualify for home loans. Also, conventional loan down payments could be dropped from 10 percent to as little as 3 percent. The chairman of the Federal Housing Finance Agency spoke in Las Vegas this week and indicated that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would likely still purchase and retain those loans, if the banks make them.

“Right now, funds are flowing only to a small proportion of potential buyers, who have excellent credit, which is contributing to weaker-than-normal demand for homes to purchase,” explains Orr. “Lenders are reluctant to take any unusual risks in an environment when Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac might take negative, profit-damaging action against the banks on loans sold to them. It appears it will take a major move by Fannie and Freddie to limit those risks before mortgage availability can get back to a normal level and support the next stage in the housing recovery.”

Orr adds, “Banks have to walk the line on their lending standards. They went from the porridge being too hot (standards too lax) to the porridge being too cold (standards too tight). It’s still a while until we get to ‘just right,’ but striking the right balance could move the Phoenix-area housing market toward more sales and more demand.”

Those wanting more Phoenix-area housing data can subscribe to Orr’s monthly reports at www.wpcarey.asu.edu/realtyreports. The premium site includes statistics, charts, graphs and the ability to focus in on specific aspects of the market. More analysis is also available at the W. P. Carey School of Business “Research and Ideas” website at http://research.wpcarey.asu.edu.

Villas-Models

Boomers looking to downsize, but keep favorite amenities

Mike D’Elena

Mike D’Elena

Mike Orr

Mike Orr

Steve Soriano

Steve Soriano

The residential real estate market is about to go “boom.”

According to AARP, for the next 18 years, Baby Boomers will be turning 65 at a rate of about 8,000 a day. That’s a lot of homeowners who may be thinking about unloading their large family homes.

“It is often misleading to generalize for a whole generation,” said Mike Orr, director of the Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice at the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University. But Orr said some Baby Boomer trends that will impact the residential real estate industry are:

· Financing retirement by selling up and moving to a less expensive location.
· Downsizing from large family-oriented trophy homes to smaller low-maintenance homes.
· Continuing to work at least part time, often from home, so looking for high-speed Internet service.
· Looking for diverse cultural, educational and recreational opportunities and good restaurants.

Valley real estate leaders are prepared for the impact.

“Throughout the next decade, we will witness large numbers of Baby Boomers downsizing,” said Mike D’Elena, a Realtor at HomeSmart Elite Group. “The first wave of Boomers turned 65 in 2011. However, most who wanted to sell had negative equity and couldn’t. Since then, the Phoenix market has bounced back significantly so the wave is coming.”

Hoping to ride that wave, Valley-based Robson Resort Communities has developed a “lock and leave” product, allowing Boomers to downsize, while still enjoying the amenities they crave, such as golf, tennis, swimming and social clubs and events.

“With the Boomer demographic, builders must consider what amenities they will offer, now more than ever,” said Steve Soriano, CFO of Robson Communities. “Buyers are looking for added value to maintain an active and social lifestyle.”

One of the fastest-growing trends, the lock and leave concept allows residents to walk away and know their home is safe within a gated community and the grounds will be maintained while they’re gone.

“The lock and leave product appeals to Baby Boomers that seek a seasonal home without a lot of upkeep,” Soriano said. “The single-story, attached townhomes in the Villa Home Series showcase an open floor plan with landscaping and exterior maintenance covered by the Villas’ homeowner association. These homes give our resident more time to enjoy the weather, luxuries and the numerous activities that they come to enjoy in Arizona.”

housing

No Housing Bubble Right Now in Phoenix

The Phoenix-area housing market is NOT creating another housing bubble to pop anytime soon. The latest monthly report from the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University shows a lack of enthusiasm from both buyers and sellers. Here are the latest details on Maricopa and Pinal counties, as of July:

• The median single-family-home sales price went up 8 percent from last July, but forward price movement is greatly slowing down.
• Activity in the market was also much slower this July than last July, with the number of single-family-home sales down 19 percent.
• The W. P. Carey School is launching an enhanced-content website where those interested in more in-depth housing-market statistics can get customized views of what’s happening.

Phoenix-area home prices dramatically recovered from the housing crash, quickly rising from September 2011 to last summer. This year, prices dropped a little, leveled off, and then finally, the median single-family-home price rose this summer. The median jumped 8 percent — from $194,000 last July to $210,000 this July. Realtors will note the average price per square foot also went up about 8 percent. The median townhouse/condo price went up about 6 percent to $130,000. However, don’t expect much more upward momentum.

“Most of the median-price increase over the last 12 months is because a greater percentage of the homes being sold are in the luxury market, not because home values overall are increasing,” says the report’s author, Mike Orr, director of the Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice at the W. P. Carey School of Business. “We anticipate pricing will move sideways or slightly down over the next few months until supply and demand get back into balance.”

At the moment, both demand and supply are low in the Phoenix area. The amount of single-family-home sales dropped 19 percent from last July to this July. (The only bright spot is new-home sales, which increased their market share from 9 to 12 percent.) Investors have focused on other areas of the country with better bargains, so the percentage of residential properties they bought in July was just 13.6 percent, down from the peak of 39.7 percent in July 2012. Orr says other home buyers aren’t stepping in, and supply isn’t rebounding.

“Usually, when demand is weak for an extended period, supply starts to grow, as it did in the second half of 2005 and throughout 2006 and 2007, heralding the collapse of the housing bubble,” Orr explains. “However, this summer, supply is slowly weakening. It appears that the lack of enthusiasm among buyers has spread to sellers, instead of causing them to panic. Many sellers clearly have the patience to wait for better times and are unwilling to drop prices to dispose of their homes.”

Orr adds the choices for anyone who wants to buy a Phoenix-area house for less than $175,000 are pretty slim. For example, bargain foreclosures are few and far between. Completed foreclosures on single-family homes and condos are down 45 percent this July from last July.

The limited options at the low end of the market are also contributing to the booming demand for single-family rental homes. Orr says fast turnover and low vacancy rates have already pushed the rent on single-family homes in the most popular areas up 7.5 percent over the last 12 months. Affordable apartment and condo rentals have also become hard to find.

In order to better serve the public with more insight on the Phoenix-area housing market, Orr and the Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice at the W. P. Carey School of Business are launching a new enhanced-content website today. In addition to the free news releases distributed by the school, those wanting more housing data can subscribe at www.wpcarey.asu.edu/realtyreports. The premium site includes statistics, charts, graphs and the ability to focus in on whatever interests you most about the market.

“Though we’ve already had a great response to our housing reports, we wanted to make our real estate information even more useful to people,” says Orr. “With the enhanced site, you’re able to customize your view to more closely examine data in particular price ranges, specific parts of the Valley, and even certain transaction categories. We think the real estate community will be really pleased with the new tools.”

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Phoenix Housing Market in a Slump

The Phoenix-area housing market is officially in a slump. That’s according to a new report from the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University, which reveals the latest details on Maricopa and Pinal counties, as of June:

* Though the median single-family home price went up 11 percent from last June, the forward price movement has dramatically slowed down from last year.
* Activity in the market remains sluggish, with single-family home sales down 11 percent from last June.
* A few slightly encouraging signs were for builders, who saw an uptick in new-home sales in June and their highest monthly total of new single-family construction permits in more than two years.

Phoenix-area home prices shot up from September 2011 to last summer, before slowing down and then even dropping a little earlier this year. Then, this June – after three months of almost stagnant prices – the median single-family-home price finally rose to $211,000. That’s up 11 percent from $190,000 last June. Realtors will note the average price per square foot went up about 10 percent. However, the report’s author says we’re not likely to see much more forward movement for a while.

“We’re in an 11-month slump in demand; sales were very low in the spring,” says Mike Orr, director of the Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice at the W. P. Carey School of Business. “There are a few positive signs that demand may gradually start to recover during the second half of this year, but we are unlikely to see much help for pricing until 2015 because there is always a long delay – typically nine to 15 months — between any change in the market and the resulting change in pricing. Meantime, we may see a little downward correction, not a bubble bursting, as some have predicted.”

While sales of luxury homes continue to do OK in this market, demand for other categories remains weak. Sales of single-family homes and condos were down 11 percent from last June to this June.

Fewer investors are focusing their attention on the Phoenix area, now that better bargains can be found elsewhere. The percentage of Phoenix-area residential properties purchased by investors dropped all the way from the peak of 39.7 percent in July 2012 to 14.4 percent this June. That’s down around the historic norm for the Phoenix area. However, something is changing a little to create a different type of demand.

“We are finally seeing a change in the trend of low household formation,” explains Orr. “The nation saw some improvement in the second quarter of 2014. This means more people may be moving out and renting or buying their own homes.”

Perhaps in response to increased household formation, new-home sales had a pretty good month in June. For the first month all year, new-home sales topped the same time last year. In fact, new-home sales went up 5 percent just from May to June alone. New single-family construction permits also hit their highest monthly total since May 2012. Multi-family construction permits and rents continue on a strong upward trend, too.

Still, the supply of homes available for sale, especially at the lower end of the market, remains slim. Active listings (excluding homes already under contract) fell 5 percent during June. Also, new foreclosures aren’t broadly becoming available to create new supply. Completed foreclosures went down 35 percent from last June to this June.

Orr’s full report, including statistics, charts and a breakdown by different areas of the Valley, can be viewed and downloaded at www.wpcarey.asu.edu/realtyreports. A podcast with more analysis from Orr will also be available from knowWPCarey, the business school’s online resource and newsletter, at http://knowwpcarey.com/index.cfm?cid=13.

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Phoenix Housing Shortage Coming?

The Phoenix area could soon see another shortage of homes for sale, like the one it endured from 2012 to 2013. According to a new report from the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University, very weak demand is masking the fact that relatively few homes are coming onto the market for sale. The area only recently emerged from another shortage, when buyers had to battle each other for relatively few home options.

Here are the latest details about Maricopa and Pinal counties, as of May:

* The median single-family-home sales price was $205,000, almost unchanged for three months in a row.
* Activity in the market is extremely slow, with demand down around 20 percent from last May.
* This quietness is covering up the fact that the market’s supply of homes for sale has stabilized at about 10 percent below normal, which could lead to another shortage, if demand eventually picks up.

Phoenix-area home prices quickly rose from September 2011 to last summer, before slowing down and even dropping a little earlier this year. The median single-family-home sales price was $205,000 in May, about the same as it was in April and March. However, that’s still up about 11 percent from the median of $185,000 last May. Realtors will note the average price per square foot went up 6 percent year-over-year. The median townhouse/condo price went up 4 percent.

The market has now become extremely quiet, and further price increases are unlikely this year without some growth in demand. The amount of single-family-home sales went down 19 percent from last May to this May. Sales of townhomes and condos dropped 20 percent.

“Demand has been much weaker since July 2013,” says the report’s author, Mike Orr, director of the Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice at the W. P. Carey School of Business. “The slight recovery in demand that had been developing over the last two months dissipated again in May. While move-up homeowners and second-home buyers are starting to compensate for the departure of investors who went to other areas of the country for better bargains, activity by first-time home buyers is still unusually slow.”

Orr says some home sellers even appear to be canceling their listings and waiting for another time when buyers have a greater sense of urgency. These families are: 1.) choosing to stay in their homes longer than they did 10 to 15 years ago; 2.) possibly stuck with negative or little equity in their homes, discouraging buying or selling; and/or 3.) wanting to stay in their current homes to preserve their very low mortgage interest rates.

That means the market’s short supply of homes isn’t expected to get much bigger in the near future. Though the supply of active listings went up 69 percent from June 1, 2013 to this June 1, it basically stabilized at about 10 percent below normal. Completed Phoenix-area foreclosures were down 50 percent from last May to this May, eliminating another possible significant source of supply. This could lead to another shortage like the recent one when we saw 95 offers on a single home.

“Between 2012 and 2013, we experienced a chronic housing shortage in Greater Phoenix,” explains Orr. “This shortage has just been temporarily masked by unusually low demand, but that could change at any time. The market has plenty of pent-up demand.”

Orr points out that population and job growth have recovered faster in the Phoenix area than home construction has. The level of single-family-home construction permitting remains very small by historic standards, and single-family new-home construction and sales remain about 65 percent below normal. One bright spot is Pinal County, where new-home sales went up 22 percent from last May to this May.

Meantime, multi-family construction permits and rental-home demand remain strong in the Phoenix area. Unemployment, falling birth rates and greater home-sharing are helping to drive this demand. The supply of single-family homes available for rent was down to 32 days on June 1. The fast turnover and low vacancy rates have already pushed rent up in the most popular locations.

Orr adds, “In Maricopa County, the percentage of properties purchased without financing in May was still at 25 percent. The normal range for cash buyers is only 7 to 12 percent, so mortgage lending still has a long way to go toward recovery.”

Orr’s full report, including statistics, charts and a breakdown by different areas of the Valley, can be viewed and downloaded at www.wpcarey.asu.edu/realtyreports. A podcast with more analysis from Orr will also be available from knowWPCarey, the business school’s online resource and newsletter, at http://knowwpcarey.com/index.cfm?cid=13.

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Big Increases Unlikely for Phoenix Housing Market

The Phoenix-area housing market has officially rebounded from artificially low recession levels, and we’re unlikely to see any more big price increases this year. That’s according to a new report from the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University. Here are the latest details about Maricopa and Pinal counties, as of April:

* The median single-family-home sales price stabilized at just under $205,000.
* Demand and sales activity were low for the normally strong spring selling season.
* Rental homes continue to be extremely popular, since many people are ineligible for home loans and/or uninterested in home ownership.

Phoenix-area home prices rose fast from September 2011 to last summer, before slowing down and then even dropping a little bit earlier this year. This April, for the second month in a row, the median single-family-home price was just under $205,000. That’s up 13 percent – from $181,399 last April to $204,900 this April. Realtors will note the average price per square foot was up 12 percent. The median townhouse/condo price went up 4 percent.

Low demand is largely putting the brakes on more significant upward price movement. The amount of single-family-home sales activity was down 16 percent this April from last April. Sales of homes in the range below $150,000 alone fell 37 percent. New-home sales went down 12 percent. All of this, even though the period from March to May is almost always the strongest part of the year for demand.

“The market has completed its rebound from the artificially low prices that prevailed between 2009 and 2011, and further significant increases are unlikely without some growth in demand,” says the report’s author, Mike Orr, director of the Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice at the W. P. Carey School of Business. “It’s also likely that the recent advance in pricing will fade during the summer months, when the luxury, snowbird and active-adult markets go relatively quiet.”

Investors continue to show disinterest in the Phoenix housing market now that better bargains can be found in other areas of the country with more foreclosures. The percentage of residential properties purchased by investors was down to just 16.3 percent in April from the peak of 39.7 percent in July 2012. Completed foreclosures on single-family homes and condos were down 54 percent from April 2013 to April 2014.

In contrast, the supply of homes available for sale is way up, with 73 percent more active listings on May 1 of this year than May 1 of last year. As a result, buyers have far more choices. However, Orr believes that may change, if demand and prices don’t pick up. Potential home sellers may stay out of the market, deciding to wait for better times.

“The underlying key problem for entry-level and mid-range housing demand is a lack of household formation due to many factors, including unemployment, falling birth rates, lower net migration and greater home-sharing, especially among millennials,” explains Orr. “However, if household creation were to return to the normal long-term average, we would quickly have a housing shortage here in Greater Phoenix.”

Meantime, the demand for rental homes is very high, and Orr says the availability of those homes is dropping to unusually low levels. He estimates there’s only a 29-day supply of single-family rentals, and therefore, rent is starting to rise in the most popular locations. As a result of this demand, the Phoenix area is seeing a strong upward trend in multi-family construction permits.

Orr’s full report, including statistics, charts and a breakdown by different areas of the Valley, can be viewed and downloaded at www.wpcarey.asu.edu/realtyreports. A podcast with more analysis from Orr is also available from knowWPCarey, the business school’s online resource and newsletter, at http://knowwpcarey.com/index.cfm?cid=13.

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What Comes Next for housing market?

The Phoenix-area housing market is experiencing a normal seasonal spring bounce in activity and prices, but what will happen next? A new report from the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University talks about the waves of consumers that will likely start returning to the housing market next year, for the first time since the recession.

Here are the latest details about Maricopa and Pinal counties, as of March:

> The median single-family-home sales price recovered from two months of drops and is back to a level similar to December.
> However, demand and sales activity are still dramatically lower than at this time last year.
> The report’s author examines why certain waves of consumers may start returning to the housing market over the next several years.

Phoenix-area home prices quickly rose from a recession low point in September 2011 until last summer, when the jumps slowed down. Then, this January and February, we saw the first two back-to-back monthly drops in the area’s median single-family-home sales price. This March, we saw that dip erased, but probably not for long.

“The bounce is a normal effect of the busy spring sales season, combined with a lot more high-priced homes in the current sales mix,” says the report’s author, Mike Orr, director of the Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice at the W. P. Carey School of Business. “The period from March to May is almost always the strongest part of the year for demand, and it is highly probable we will see pricing fade again during the summer months, when the luxury, snowbird and active-adult markets go relatively quiet. We may still be looking at little to no annual price appreciation by the end of the year.”

The median single-family-home sales price was up about 17 percent from last March to this March – from $175,000 to $204,520. The average price per square foot was up 15.5 percent. The median townhouse/condominium sales price was up 16 percent. We no longer have a tight supply of homes for sale like we did at this time last year. Supply stabilized in March, with 64 percent more listings this April 1 than last April 1.

However, low demand continues to be a problem. Single-family-home sales activity was down 20 percent this March from last March. Some of the drop comes from regular home buyers, but also institutional investors are just not as interested in Phoenix, now that better bargains can be found in other parts of the country with more foreclosures. The percentage of residential properties purchased by investors in the Phoenix area this March was down to 17.4 percent from the peak of 39.7 percent in July 2012.

“The institutional investors are doing very little buying or selling in the Phoenix area at the moment,” says Orr. “Their focus has turned to property management, rather than acquisition or disposal.”

The areas doing especially well right now in Phoenix?

Luxury homes priced at more than $500,000 represented 11 percent more of the market’s sales activity this March than last March. High-end demand above $1.5 million was greater in the first quarter of this year than in any first quarter since 2007.
Rental homes are experiencing very strong demand. Interest is so robust that only a one-month supply is currently available on the market.
Multi-family construction permits are on a strong upward trend. In fact, Orr says the first quarter of 2014 was the second-highest quarter for multi-family permits in 12 years.

Meantime, single-family construction permits were down 18 percent this March from last March. New-home sales were down 15 percent.

Orr says, “A key underlying problem for current housing demand is lack of household formation due to many factors, including unemployment, falling birth rates, lower net migration and greater home-sharing, especially among millennials. However, we could see lenders become the most influential decision-makers in this situation. Many lenders are hurting for business, with applications at their lowest level since 2000, and some may become more forgiving, accepting lower credit scores for loans.”

Orr also predicts we’ll see the first major waves of consumers who lost their homes through foreclosure during the recession coming back into the market, starting next year. He says those who lost their homes at the beginning of the downturn will have spent their required seven years in the “penalty box,” and they’ll reemerge from 2015 to 2019. He adds it’s just a question of how many of them want to try again at home ownership.

Orr’s full report, including statistics, charts and a breakdown by different areas of the Valley, can be viewed and downloaded at www.wpcarey.asu.edu/realtyreports. A podcast with more analysis from Orr is also available from knowWPCarey, the business school’s online resource and newsletter, at http://knowwpcarey.com/index.cfm?cid=13.

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Phoenix Home-Price Rebound May Be Over

The big home-price rebound in the Phoenix area may officially be over. For the first time since last summer, the market experienced a month-to-month decrease in the median single-family-home sales price. A new report from the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University reveals that and other details about Maricopa and Pinal counties, as of January:

> The median single-family-home sales price was $196,900.
> Demand is very low, from both investors and normal homeowner-occupiers.
> Phoenix-area home prices are finally back in line with the Consumer Price Index, as if the recession and recovery had never happened.

Valley home prices started quickly rising after hitting a low point in September 2011, but they began slowing down this past July. Finally, this January, the median single-family-home sales price hit $196,900 — down 4 percent from December. It was the first month-to-month drop since the normal summer seasonal blips, and it’s largely due to a big drop in demand/sales activity.

“January is usually the quietest month of the year for sales, but this January was far weaker than January 2012 and 2013,” says the report’s author, Mike Orr, director of the Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice at the W. P. Carey School of Business. “Despite the huge price increases between January 2013 and 2014, the total dollars spent on homes here this January actually dropped by 7 percent. This is the second lowest level of demand we’ve seen in 14 years, behind only 2008.”

Still, the median single-family-home sales price remained up 21 percent from last January, when it was at $163,000. Realtors will note the average price per square foot was up 19 percent. The median townhouse/condo price was up about 17 percent.

“The price gains now are weak, but it’s not clear that they’ll get much weaker or stronger,” explains Orr. “We’ve already seen a significant change in the market, which has completed its rebound from the artificially low prices between 2009 and 2011. Pricing is back to the level it would have attained if it had increased from 2000 in line with the Consumer Price Index.”

Demand from both investors and ordinary owner-occupiers is way down. Even though the available supply of homes for sale was up 47 percent from Feb. 1 of last year to Feb. 1 of this year, sales activity plummeted. Sales of single-family homes were down 23 percent from last January to this January. Sales of townhomes and condos were down 18 percent.

Luxury homes are one of the only bright spots in the market, with homes above a half-million dollars representing 14 percent more of the sales transactions this January than last January. However, even the supply of luxury homes is quickly rising, so sellers in that space will face tougher competition in 2014.

Investors continue looking to other parts of the country for bigger bargains, since Phoenix prices have risen. In January, the percentage of residential properties bought by investors was down to 21.1 percent from the peak of 39.7 in July 2012.

New home sales were also down 21 percent from last January to this January, representing the steepest fall in new-home closings in several years. Millennials and those who lost their homes to foreclosure or short sale in the recession appear more interested in renting than buying. That’s led to an upward trend in multi-family construction permits. It could also lead to higher rental rates in the next two years, during which time, home sales may continue to be relatively slow.

“The market conditions suggest prices will struggle to make any further upward progress in 2014,” Orr adds. “With February through June the strongest part of the year, we may yet see a little forward movement, but it’s likely to be tentative at best. The real test will come in the second half of the year, which is likely to see lower prices unless demand takes a distinct turn for the better.”

Foreclosure levels remain below the normal, historic trends for Maricopa and Pinal counties. Foreclosure starts – owners receiving notice their lenders may foreclose in 90 days – were down 55 percent from January 2013 to this January. Completed foreclosures were down 54 percent.

Orr’s full report, including statistics, charts and a breakdown by different areas of the Valley, can be viewed and downloaded at www.wpcarey.asu.edu/realtyreports. A podcast with more analysis from Orr is also available from knowWPCarey, the business school’s online resource and newsletter, at http://knowwpcarey.com/index.cfm?cid=13.

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Phoenix Housing Market Quiets Down

The Phoenix-area housing market is quietly ending the year, with a drop in demand and activity. A new report from the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University provides the latest data for Maricopa and Pinal counties, as of October:

* The median single-family-home price was up 27 percent, to $200,000, since last October, but price increases are slowing down.
* Demand is rapidly dropping, and the supply of homes available for sale is quickly rising.
*First-time home buyers, especially those under 30, are showing little interest in getting into the market.

Phoenix-area home prices have been going up since they hit a low point in September 2011. The median single-family-home price went up an incredible 71 percent from October 2011 to October 2013. It rose 27 percent – from $157,000 to $200,000 – from just last October to this October. Realtors will note the average price per square foot went up about 24 percent year-over-year. The median townhouse/condo price rose 27 percent, to $119,900.

However, the report’s author says the market has been cooling since July and will continue to lose momentum.

“I anticipate sales will be way down in November and through the holidays, when some people even take their homes off the market until late January,” says Mike Orr, director of the Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice at the W. P. Carey School of Business. “We also anticipate a much slower rate of price appreciation in 2014 than the furious pace we have witnessed over the last two years.”

Conditions are getting better for buyers and worse for sellers, as the supply of homes available for sale has been rising fast. The Phoenix area had 40 percent more active listings (those not under contract) this Nov. 1 than last Nov. 1. At the same time, demand has been plummeting. The amount of single-family-home sales activity dropped 19 percent from last October to this October.

Orr believes supply will exceed demand before the end of the year, even though supply is still 15 to 20 percent below what would be considered normal. He blames the sudden weakness partly on poor consumer sentiment, including concern over the recent government shutdown. He also notes Census numbers showing fewer households are forming, as some young adults stay with their parents and others show little interest in leaving their rentals to buy a home.

“When you ask people under 30 whether they want to buy a home, they’re not planning on it like past generations,” explains Orr. “Also, demand for starter homes is limited by the difficulty of first-time home buyers in qualifying for loans. Plus, less than 3 percent of the new homes sold in Maricopa County in October were priced below $150,000, so new entry-level homes are getting very scarce.”

Investors and out-of-state buyers are also losing interest in the Phoenix area. The percentage of residential properties purchased by investors has dropped from the peak of 39.7 percent in July 2012 down to 22.6 percent this October. The percentage of Maricopa County homes sold to out-of-state buyers was down from 20.1 last October to 16.4 this October. That’s the lowest percentage since January 2009.

The luxury home market continues to gain ground, with the stock market booming and the growing availability of jumbo loans. Sales of single-family homes priced above $500,000 grew 34 percent from last October to this October. At the same time, sales of lower-end homes priced below $150,000 fell by almost half — 49 percent.

Cheap homes are hard to find as foreclosure levels continue to drop. The number of completed foreclosures fell about 64 percent from October 2012 to this October. The number of foreclosure starts — owners receiving notice their lenders may foreclose in 90 days – dropped 50 percent at the same time.

Orr’s full report, including statistics, charts and a breakdown by different areas of the Valley, can be viewed and downloaded at www.wpcarey.asu.edu/realtyreports. A podcast with more analysis from Orr is also available from knowWPCarey, the business school’s online resource and newsletter, at http://knowwpcarey.com/index.cfm?cid=13.

housing.prices

Phoenix Housing Market Affected by Government Shutdown

The government shutdown may have dampened interest in buying Phoenix-area homes this fall. A new report from the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University shows the latest data for Maricopa and Pinal counties, as of September:

* The median single-family-home price was up about 33 percent from last September, to $199,000.
* However, demand is waning, and that may be at least partly due to the recent government shutdown creating economic uncertainty.
* Meantime, housing supply continues to rise, with more people willing to put their homes on the market as prices go up.

Phoenix-area home prices have been rising since hitting a low point in September 2011. The median single-family-home price rose 32.7 percent — from $150,000 to $199,000 –from last September to this September. Realtors will note the average price per square foot went up 22 percent. The median townhouse/condo price went up 30 percent, to $117,000. However, the price gains are expected to slow down.

“Since the beginning of July, the Phoenix-area housing market has cooled dramatically,” says the report’s author, Mike Orr, director of the Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice at the W. P. Carey School of Business. “The main change is a steep fall in demand, which we can see in the 12-percent drop in single-family-home sales activity just between August and September alone. Going forward, we anticipate a much slower rate of price appreciation than the furious pace we have witnessed over the last two years.”

Orr says the recent government shutdown may be at least partly to blame for the hard brakes on the housing market.

“The sudden weakness in owner-occupier demand since July is unusual and unexpected,” says Orr. “Poor consumer sentiment and concern over the government shutdown seem to have accelerated the decline. We also have no government information available yet on new-construction permits because of the shutdown.”

On the positive side, the number of available homes for sale continues to rise, after the area experienced a very tight supply for months. Active listings, not including those already under contract, went up 32 percent from Oct. 1 of last year to Oct. 1 of this year. More people appear willing to put their homes up for sale as prices rise.

“If the current trend continues, supply will exceed demand by the end of the year,” says Orr. “We now expect a balanced market to prevail during November. This is great news for buyers since they will experience less competition and be in a strong position to negotiate.”

The luxury market continues to perform well, thanks to the rising stock market and a big increase in the availability of jumbo loans. Sales of $500,000-plus, single-family homes grew an incredible 51 percent from September 2012 to September 2013.

However, cheap homes are tough to find, with fewer foreclosures coming onto the market. Foreclosure starts – owners receiving notice their lenders may foreclose in 90 days – dropped 61 percent from last September to this September. Completed foreclosures declined 63 percent. Orr expects foreclosures to keep falling over the next several years, thanks to tight underwriting standards.

Institutional investors and out-of-state buyers continue to lose interest in the Phoenix area, since better bargains can now be found elsewhere. The percentage of homes and condos bought by investors in September was down to 22.7 percent, from the peak of 39.7 percent in July 2012. Also, the percentage of Maricopa County residences sold to owners from outside Arizona was only 16.4 percent, the lowest percentage since January 2009.

Orr’s full report, including statistics, charts and a breakdown by different areas of the Valley, can be viewed and downloaded at www.wpcarey.asu.edu/realtyreports. A podcast with more analysis from Orr is also available from knowWPCarey, the business school’s online resource and newsletter, at http://knowwpcarey.com/index.cfm?cid=13.

Phoenix-Area Housing Market

Phoenix-area Housing Supply Increasing

Over the past two years, the tight supply of homes for sale in the Phoenix area has helped to dramatically drive up prices. However, a new report from the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University shows change on the horizon. The data for Maricopa and Pinal counties, as of August, reveals:

* The median single-family-home price is up 28 percent from last August, to $192,000.
* However, supply is finally starting to increase to help meet demand, and may be in balance by the end of the year.
* The luxury market is powering back, but might be derailed if the economy is pounded by the government shutdown and other events in Washington, D.C.

Phoenix-area home prices have shot up since hitting a low point in September 2011. From last August to this August, the median single-family-home price rose 28 percent – from $150,000 to $192,000. Realtors will note the average price per square foot went up 22 percent. The median townhouse/condo price rose 31 percent.

“We predicted the price-increase slowdown that happened over the summer months,” says the report’s author, Mike Orr, director of the Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice at the W. P. Carey School of Business. “Now that temperatures are cooling, prices will start rising again, at least for the near term. However, they’re likely to go up at a less furious pace than the last two years.”

Orr says increases in the amount of homes for sale are helping to stop the price boom. As of Sept. 1 this year, the area had 29 percent more active listings (not under contract) than at the same time last year. As supply has been going up, demand has gone down, with sales of single-family homes 12 percent lower this August than last August.

“Although demand still exceeds supply, they are fast moving toward each other,” says Orr. “If the current pace of change continues, they are likely to be in balance before the end of the year. The seller is no longer holding all the cards in the Greater Phoenix housing market, and if their offers are countered aggressively, some potential buyers may walk away because they now have more alternatives.”

The types of transactions happening in the market are also noticeably shifting. Luxury homes over $500,000 grew their market share from 15 to 21 percent of the money being spent over the past year, while the lowest-priced homes (below $150,000) fell from 25 to 14 percent of the market.

“Access to finance at the high end of the market is very good, and we are seeing interest rates for jumbo loans even lower than the rates for conventional loans,” Orr explains. “However, if the stock market is negatively affected by events in Washington, then this will have an impact on the luxury housing market in Arizona.”

Investors continue to lose interest in the Phoenix market, with better bargains available in other parts of the country. The percentage of residential properties purchased by investors fell from the peak activity of 39.7 percent in July 2012 down to just 23.7 percent this August. The rates of all-cash buyers and out-of-state buyers are also dropping. In fact, the percentage of Maricopa County residences sold to non-Arizona owners in August was only 17 percent, the lowest percentage since January 2009.

Prices in all areas of Maricopa County are up over last year, and cheap foreclosures are tough to find. Foreclosure starts – owners receiving notice their lenders may foreclose in 90 days – declined 61 percent from last August to this August. Completed foreclosures went down an incredible 73 percent.

Orr’s full report, including statistics, charts and a breakdown by different areas of the Valley, can be viewed and downloaded at www.wpcarey.asu.edu/realtyreports. A podcast with more analysis from Orr is also available from knowWPCarey, the business school’s online resource and newsletter, at http://knowwpcarey.com/index.cfm?cid=13.

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Phoenix-area Foreclosure Saga Ending

The Phoenix-area housing market has finally hit “normal, historical levels” for those going into foreclosure. After years of severe foreclosure trouble, a new report from the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University reveals that good news and more for Maricopa and Pinal counties, as of May:

* The median single-family home price rose again to $185,000, up about 26 percent from May of last year.
* The final chapter of the foreclosure crisis is wrapping up in Phoenix, as foreclosure starts — homeowners receiving notice their lenders may foreclose in 90 days – finally hit normal, historical levels in May.
* On the negative side, the chronic shortage of area homes available for sale continues to be an issue and could last for years.

Phoenix-area home prices hit a low point in September 2011 and have risen dramatically since then. The median single-family-home price reached $185,000 this May, up from $147,000 last May. That’s a boost of 25.9 percent. Realtors will note the average price per square foot went up 22 percent at the same time. The median townhouse/condo price went up about 27.1 percent.

“Between this January and May alone, the average price per square foot rose about 13 percent for area single-family homes,” says the report’s author, Mike Orr, director of the Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice at the W. P. Carey School of Business. “However, the upward pricing pressure should disappear during the summer. I expect the prices to resume their strong upward direction in the fall, once temperatures drop below 100 degrees and snowbirds return.”

Rising prices don’t appear to be dampening the housing recovery in the Phoenix area at this point. In fact, home-and-condo sales activity went up 6.6 percent between April and May. May is the second month in a row where activity increased from the same time during the prior year, reversing a long negative trend. Even the luxury market is gaining, with more sales in May than in any other single month over the past six years.

“There has been much talk of rising interest rates and the negative effect this might have on demand,” says Orr. “The sudden and recent increase in rates has certainly reduced the motivation to refinance existing home loans. However, it is almost certainly increasing buyers’ determination to purchase homes now, rather than later, when rates may go even higher.”

Orr adds he sees early signs some lenders may react to higher interest rates by easing up their rules, allowing more people to buy homes. He also believes prospective buyers may simply settle for purchasing smaller, more affordable houses than they originally wanted, in order to manage the higher interest payments.

At the same time, the wave of foreclosures triggered by the housing crisis appears to be ending in the Phoenix area. Completed foreclosures on single-family homes and townhome/condos in May were down 53 percent from last May. Foreclosure starts – owners receiving notice their lenders may foreclose in 90 days – went down an incredible 67 percent in the same period. Given population growth, this means the area finally hit its normal, historical level of foreclosure starts this May.

“Foreclosure starts dropped 15 percent just between April and May alone,” says Orr. “Foreclosure levels are now far below the peak levels of March 2009, and the number of pending foreclosures is below the level from the first quarter of 2002. We expect these numbers to continue to fall over the next several years due to the very tight underwriting standards in place.”

Without cheap foreclosures coming into the market — and with ordinary homeowners reluctant to sell because they’re either locked in by negative equity or waiting for prices to keep rising — the Phoenix-area housing market continues to struggle with a chronic shortage of homes available for sale that may last for years. The number of active single-family listings without an existing contract was just over 11,000 as of June 1. That’s down 0.4 percent since May 1, and 83 percent of the available homes are priced above $150,000, creating a problem for those looking in the lower price range. At least the shortage has improved somewhat from last year, when supply was dropping at a rate of 6 percent per month.

“The chronic shortage applies to both homes for purchase and homes for lease,” Orr explains. “The average time for a leased home to be on the market is down to about one month. With this fast turnover and relatively low vacancy rates, it’s perhaps surprising that single-family and condo rents have only very modestly increased.”

New-home builders don’t appear too anxious to help meet the demand. They are trying to make sure they don’t overbuild like they did before the housing crisis, and they want to keep prices moving up. Current new-home sales rates are less than a third of what would normally be needed to keep up with local population growth. As a result, Orr says the combined population of Maricopa and Pinal counties grew 2.9 percent from 2010 to 2012, but the number of owned and leased dwelling units only grew by 1 percent.

Lastly, institutional investors continue to lose interest in the Phoenix area. Their buying spree that began in 2011 is in a downward trend. The percentage of the area’s total single-family-home and condo sales carried out by investors is down from 39.7 in July 2012 to 27.3 percent this May. Most investor transactions are actually going to so-called “mom and pop” purchasers. Orr says they own roughly 96 percent of the area’s rental-home inventory.

Orr’s full report, including statistics, charts and a breakdown by different areas of the Valley, can be viewed at http://wpcarey.asu.edu/finance/real-estate/upload/Full_Report_201306.pdf. A podcast with more analysis from Orr is also available from knowWPCarey, the business school’s online resource and newsletter, at http://knowwpcarey.com/index.cfm?cid=13.

housing.prices

No Housing Bubble for the Phoenix Area?

Despite dramatic home-price boosts, don’t expect another housing bubble anytime soon in the Phoenix area. A new report from the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University breaks down what’s happening in the Maricopa and Pinal County housing market, as of April:

* The median single-family home price climbed again to $181,399, up almost 30 percent from April of last year.
* The report’s author sees no housing bubble on the way, with a very tight supply of available homes for sale.
* He also sees no significant negative effect yet from rising interest rates on local housing demand.

Phoenix-area home prices have been soaring since they reached a low point in September 2011. The median single-family home price rose 29.6 percent — from $140,000 to $181,399 — between April 2012 and April 2013. Realtors will note the average price per square foot went up 23.5 percent. The median townhouse/condo price went up 34.6 percent.

“In previous reports, we predicted prices would rise significantly during the strong annual buying season that lasts until June,” says the report’s author, Mike Orr, director of the Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice at the W. P. Carey School of Business. “From February through April, the average price per square foot did rise more than 9 percent for single-family homes, but the upward pricing pressure may finally ease somewhat this month.”

One big reason for the price gains has been the chronic shortage of available homes for sale in the Phoenix area. The number of active single-family-home listings (not including those already under contract) fell 7.3 percent just from April 1 to May 1. Only 24 days of lower-end supply (priced under $150,000) is out there. However, the frequent drops in supply have at least slowed down enough to let the market accumulate 20 percent more listings than it had at the same time last year.

Investor interest in Phoenix has also waned as prices went up and better bargains were still available in other areas of the country. Orr says the institutional-investor buying spree here began in 2011, peaked in summer 2012, and is now in a downward trend. The percentage of homes purchased by both small and institutional investors in Maricopa and Pinal counties in April was 26.8 percent, down all the way from 39.7 percent in July 2012, and most of these purchases were actually made by small-scale investors.

Many of the investor-purchased homes have already been turned into rentals for people who lost their houses during the recession. Some commentators have been saying there might be another housing bubble when investors decide to sell these homes, but Orr strongly disagrees.

“Some commentators talk ominously of a bubble bursting when these homes come back onto the market,” he says. “Such talk gets a lot of attention because we are over-sensitized to bubble talk after the disruptive events of 2004 to 2006. However, this idea falls flat when we examine the actual number of homes involved. The entire institutional inventory of 10,000 to 11,000 rental homes here represents a tiny fraction, less than 1 percent, of our housing stock. If every single one were to be placed for sale next month, we would still have less supply than in a normal balanced market.”

Demand from investors is already being replaced by demand from owner-occupiers and second-home buyers. Most homes priced below $600,000 continue to attract multiple offers within a short time. The luxury market is also gaining some steam. Single-family-home sales activity overall went up 4 percent from April 2012 to this April, beginning to reverse a long downward trend in year-over-year activity.

“There has been much talk of the negative effect that rising interest rates might have on demand,” says Orr. “So far, the increases have been minor, and the main effect has been to reduce the motivation to refinance existing home loans. At the same time, higher interest rates often create a greater sense of urgency among home buyers, so if lenders simultaneously relax their underwriting rules, this could stimulate demand, rather than reduce it.”

The market also continues to recover from the foreclosure crisis. The number of completed foreclosures on homes and condos in April of this year was down 46 percent from April last year. Foreclosure starts – homeowners receiving notice their lenders may foreclose in 90 days – dropped 60 percent. Orr expects the rates to fall below long-term averages soon.

With fewer foreclosures coming on the market, some buyers have turned to new-home builders. However, Orr says the construction industry is still building far fewer homes than needed to keep up with rising population and demand in the area. This is partly because the prices of land, materials and construction labor are all rising as subcontractors struggle to attract more workers. He says the developers are also being very cautious in their expansion. They enjoy the fact that limited supply allows them to continue increasing prices faster than their costs and don’t want to disturb this trend by overbuilding.

“Given the balance between supply and population growth in Phoenix, home prices are unlikely to fall below today’s level and are more likely to continue to climb for a long time, though at a more gentle pace.”

Orr’s full report, including statistics, charts and a breakdown by different areas of the Valley, can be viewed at http://wpcarey.asu.edu/finance/real-estate/upload/Full-Report-201305.pdf. A podcast with more analysis from Orr is also available from knowWPCarey, the business school’s online resource and newsletter, at http://knowwpcarey.com/index.cfm?cid=13.

Arizona Is Losing Economic Grounds To Other Southwestern States, 2008

Rebound for Arizona and U.S. Slows Down

Jobs, home prices and population growth are all slowly rebounding in Arizona. However, experts from the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University say we still have a long way to go, and the automatic federal budget cuts known as the sequester aren’t helping our momentum. The experts delivered their forecasts today at the annual Economic Outlook Luncheon sponsored by the Economic Club of Phoenix.

Research Professor Lee McPheters, director of the JPMorgan Chase Economic Outlook Center at the W. P. Carey School, confirmed Arizona is once again a Top 15 growth state for both employment and population, but we’re not back to normal levels. From 1960 to 2007, we routinely ranked among the Top 5 states for both employment and population growth. In the rough years from 2008 to 2011, we dropped down to No. 48 and No. 14 in those areas.

“Last year, we finally bounced back to No. 8 for employment growth and No. 7 for population growth,” said McPheters. “However, the sequester and other factors have been clouding the economy here in recent months, and the year-over-year job-growth ranking issued this March dropped Arizona down to No. 13. The state will have to wait a couple more years for full recovery.”

Arizona added 48,900 jobs in 2012. The state is projected to add 61,000 jobs this year. The fastest-growing industries are construction, wholesale trade, information, state government and leisure/hospitality.

“Arizona has gained back 39 percent of the 314,000 jobs we lost in the recession,” explained McPheters. “However, that’s a pace well behind the nation as a whole, which has regained 67 percent of its 8.8 million lost jobs.”

In recent years, population growth in Arizona had dropped from the state’s typical 2- to 3-percent range to less than 1 percent. Finally last year we popped back up to 1.3 percent.

Personal income may also be coming back. The consensus of Arizona Blue Chip economists shows growth in this area of 3.7 percent in 2012, 5.1 percent expected in 2013, and 6 percent expected in 2014.

“The bottom line is that Arizona is doing better than most states, but this will still be the seventh year in a row of lean, subpar growth for us,” said McPheters.

Dennis Hoffman, economics professor and director of the L. William Seidman Research Institute at the W. P. Carey School of Business, reiterated that Arizona is recovering more slowly from this recession than from others in the past. However, we are coming back stronger than the nation as a whole in most areas of the economy. Hoffman expects the United States to see 2- to 3-percent gross-domestic-product (GDP) growth this year. That will likely include more moderate job growth and low inflation.

“The economy is plodding along, assisted by the real-estate and stock-market recoveries, low fuel prices and innovation in the business world,” said Hoffman. “Still, we face a lot of uncertainty from our national-debt crisis, political squabbling in Washington, economic difficulties in Europe and China, and changing demographics. One huge issue remains the problem of future funding for Social Security and Medicare.”

At the state level, Hoffman says we’re going to be strongly affected by the decisions still to be made this year on possible Medicaid expansion, the loss of the temporary sales tax, the potential taxing of online sales, and other big issues. For now, state revenue has been coming back with the rebounding economy.

When it comes to the housing market, Mike Orr, director of the Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice at the W. P. Carey School of Business, delivered good news about the recovery. Specifically, the median Phoenix-area home price was up a whopping 58 percent from a low of $111,000 in May 2011 to $175,000 this March. Foreclosures were down 60 percent just over the last year from March 2012 to March 2013, and Orr expects foreclosure rates to dip below long-term averages by the end of next year. Also, less than 5 percent of Arizona home loans (not already in foreclosure) are delinquent now.

However, we do face some problems in the housing market. For one thing, there’s a chronic shortage of homes for sale. Now that there’s no flood of cheap foreclosures and short sales coming onto the market, buyers are dependent mostly on normal resales and new-home sales.

“Higher prices would normally bring more ordinary home sellers into the market, but many are either locked into their homes because of negative equity, or they’re simply waiting for prices to go up more,” explained Orr. “As a result, some buyers are turning to new-home sales, but developers are reluctant to overbuild as much as they did at the market peak. Therefore, we may see about 50,000 to 60,000 new people being added to our local population this year, but only around 12,000 new single-family homes being built.”

Today’s Economic Outlook Luncheon was held at the JW Marriott Desert Ridge Resort & Spa in Phoenix. The Economic Club of Phoenix hosts this event every spring, as one of its opportunities for Valley business leaders and others to network and engage. The club was founded by a group of prominent business executives called the Dean’s Council of 100, in conjunction with the W. P. Carey School of Business. More information about the club can be found at www.wpcarey.asu.edu/ecp.

Today’s presentations will be posted at knowWPCarey, the business school’s online resource, at http://knowwpcarey.com.

Luxury Home - AZ Business Magazine November 2008

Luxury market sees 54% drop in short sales

This summary looks at single family homes over $500,000 in all areas of the Northeast Valley, including Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Fountain Hills, Rio Verde, Arcadia, Biltmore, Cave Creek and Carefree.

SUPPLY

The supply of active listings offered for sale as of May 1 is 2,222 down 2% from last month and comprising 2,122 normal (down 2%), 83 short sales (down 8%) and 17 lender-owned (up 31%). Last year on the same date we had 2,017, with 1,803 normal, 179 short sales and 35 lender-owned. So supply is 10% higher than last year, with more sellers encouraged by the improvement in the market. Homes in distress have declined significantly over the last year with short sales down by 54% and lender-owned homes down by 51%. 2,222 luxury home listings remains a sufficient supply to satisfy the present number of buyers and the market remains fairly balanced, without the chronic shortages of supply which have been affecting prices at the low end of the market. For homes priced over $2,000,000 there are 454 active listings, down 8 from last month but 3% higher than the 439 we measured last year. This higher priced sector has more plentiful supply than the lower priced ranges. However this year there are only 2 lender-owned home and 5 short sales over $2,000,000, down from 5 and 13 on May 1, 2012.

DEMAND – SALES

There were 354 sales closed though ARMLS in April, up 16% from the 305 reported in March, and up a strong 31% from the 271 we saw in April 2012. Since last December sales numbers have been getting increasingly impressive and this was the strongest April for sales over $500,000 that we have seen since 2007, when there were also 354 sales. There were 7 sales over $3,000,000 compared with 8 in April 2012, and 18 sales between $2,000,000 and $3,000,000, up from 10 in April 2012. The range from $1,500,000 to $2,000,000 declined from 16 to 11 sales, but all the lower price ranges saw substantial increases over last year. 92% of sales were normal in April 2013 compared with 82% last year.

Phoenix-area Housing Prices Keep Soaring

Home prices continue their upward climb in the Phoenix area, with more momentum expected until at least June. A new report from the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University reveals the latest information about the Maricopa and Pinal County housing market, as of March:

The median single-family home price was all the way up to $175,000, about a 30-percent increase from March of last year.
The supply of homes for sale continued to fall, but the problem is not so much the high demand, but more the lack of sellers getting into the market.
Rebounding population growth in the Phoenix area is also blasting past the rate at which builders are constructing new homes.

Phoenix-area home prices reached a low in September 2011 and have largely shot up since then. The median single-family home price went up 29.7 percent – from $134,900 to $175,000 – in the year from March 2012 to March 2013. Realtors will note the average price per square foot went up 23.6 percent during the same time. The median townhouse/condo price increased 43.2 percent – from $81,000 to $116,000. A big reason for all this upward movement is the scarcity of affordable homes for sale.

“The number of active single-family listings has been dropping fast and went down another 4 percent from March 1 to April 1,” says the report’s author, Mike Orr, director of the Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice at the W. P. Carey School of Business. “Fewer than 12,000 single-family homes were up for sale (without an existing contract) on April 1, and 80 percent of those were priced above $150,000, making it very tough to find properties in the lower price range.”

Orr adds it’s actually not high demand that’s the major culprit here.

“The low number of sellers is what’s unusual, not the number of buyers, which is only slightly above normal,” he says. “Higher prices would normally encourage more ordinary home sellers into the market, but many are either locked into their homes because of negative equity, or they’re simply waiting for prices to go up more.”

Orr says most homes priced below $600,000 continue to attract multiple offers, and March is the peak of the buying season that lasts from January to June. However, due to the chronic supply shortage, the amount of single-family home sales actually went down 8 percent from March 2012 to March 2013.

Investors are also starting to lose some interest in the Phoenix area, since bigger bargains can be found in other areas of the country that haven’t rebounded as fast. The percentage of residential properties bought by investors dropped from 29.2 percent in February to 27.1 percent in March, the lowest percentage in several years. The market is now seeing increased demand from owner-occupiers and second-home buyers, instead.

Completed foreclosures were down an incredible 60 percent from March 2012 to March 2013. Foreclosure starts – homeowners receiving notice their lenders may foreclose in 90 days – dropped 53 percent. Orr believes we’ll see foreclosure-notice rates “below long-term averages” by the end of next year.

Meantime, new-home sales are also going up, in tandem with resale prices. In Maricopa County alone, new-home sales increased 37 percent from March 2012 to March 2013. However, new-home construction isn’t keeping pace with the Phoenix area’s rebounding post-recession population growth. The U.S. Census reports 1,220 single-family-home construction permits were issued in March, a very small number by historic standards. For example, the total in March 1996 was 3,071, and the total in March 2004 was 5,490.

“The population is growing much faster than the housing supply, with an expected 50,000 to 60,000 people being added to the Phoenix-area population this year, but only around 12,000 new single-family homes being built,” Orr explains. “Builders are scratching their heads, trying to figure out what to do. They don’t want to overbuild like they did during the peak, and they don’t want to build a bunch of new homes for people who can’t secure the mortgages needed to buy them with such tight lending conditions.”

Orr’s full report, including statistics, charts and a breakdown by different areas of the Valley, can be viewed at http://wpcarey.asu.edu/finance/real-estate/upload/Full-Report-201304.pdf. A podcast with more analysis from Orr is also available from knowWPCarey, the business school’s online resource and newsletter, at http://knowwpcarey.com/index.cfm?cid=13.