Tag Archives: Pinal County

Sandra Wilken Luxury Properties

Phoenix-area Housing Market Officially in Slowdown

Expect those big price increases we’ve seen for Phoenix-area homes to slow down, possibly even stop or reverse a little this year. A new report from the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University predicts two-plus years of large gains to come to an end in 2014. The latest data for Maricopa and Pinal counties, as of December, reveals:

The median single-family-home sale price was still up 25 percent from December 2012.

However, demand was already falling sharply, with home and condo sales activity down 16 percent from the previous December.
Investors are showing less interest in the market, and construction-permit numbers remain small by historic standards.

Phoenix-area home prices have been going up since they hit a low point in September 2011, but the increases have been slowing down in recent months. The median single-family-home sales price was up 25 percent – $164,000 to $205,000 – from December 2012 to December 2013. Realtors will note the average price per square foot went up about 20 percent. The median townhouse/condo price rose 20 percent, to $120,000. However, those annual gains don’t accurately reflect the cooling pattern that started in July.

“We are seeing a big drop in demand compared with the last two years, and there are ominous indications of a softening market when we dig deep into the numbers,” says the report’s author, Mike Orr, director of the Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice at the W. P. Carey School of Business. “Sales of single-family homes were down 17 percent from December 2012 to this December. Townhome/condo sales were down 11 percent.”

The supply of homes available for sale also fell in a normal seasonal pattern in December. However, the number of active listings was still up 36 percent from Jan. 1, 2013 to Jan. 1, 2014.

Orr says one other bright spot is the luxury market – homes priced over $500,000. That end of the market is doing well, with activity up 21 percent from December 2012 to this December, as jumbo loans are readily available and the stock market is still near historic highs. At the low end of the spectrum, sales activity for homes priced under $150,000 is down an incredible 47 percent.

“Overall, buyers are enjoying less competition in bids for homes, but sellers should be prepared for possible cuts in asking price,” says Orr. “A larger portion of the population is simply choosing to rent, instead of buy. That includes much of the Millennial generation and those who lost their homes to foreclosure or short sale. They either prefer the rental lifestyle, don’t feel that secure in their jobs, or don’t have the credit history or down payment needed for a purchase.”

Orr says there’s more competition to get rental homes than homes for sale. He also says this could lead to rent increases over the next two years, especially since more owners are now institutional investors who will have less hesitation in raising rents than traditional mom-and-pop landlords.

Investors continue to lose interest in buying more in the Phoenix area, as better bargains can be found in other areas of the country. The percentage of residential properties purchased by investors was just 19.3 percent in December, down from the peak of 39.7 in July 2012.

Foreclosed homes aren’t plentiful anymore. Orr says Maricopa county was 19 percent below its normal, historic foreclosure-notice level in December. Foreclosure starts – owners receiving notice their lenders may foreclose in 90 days – were down 43 percent from December 2012 to December 2013. Completed foreclosures dropped 53 percent.

New-home sales had an excellent month, increasing their market share to 16 percent this December from 13 percent in December 2012. However, Orr says this was a normal seasonal bump. Construction-permit numbers remain low by historic standards.

Orr adds, “We’re seeing growing evidence the housing slowdown is also being experienced in other parts of the country, including southern California. If current conditions persist in the Phoenix area for several months, downward pressure on pricing will become hard to resist.”

Orr’s full report, including statistics, charts and a breakdown by different areas of the Valley, can be viewed and downloaded at www.wpcarey.asu.edu/realtyreports. A podcast with more analysis from Orr is also available from knowWPCarey, the business school’s online resource and newsletter, at http://knowwpcarey.com/index.cfm?cid=13.

Pinal Land Holdings Closes Largest Acreage Deal Since Recession

Pinal Land Holdings, LLC (PLH) announced Tuesday that it has closed on more than 11,400 acres of land in Pinal County. The land, previously owned by the City of Mesa will be purchased in three phases. This is one of the largest land deals in the history of the City and represents a great economic outcome for the surrounding communities and a positive shift in the real estate industry.
The property is comprised of 86 parcels that lie from Curry Road to the west, Clemans Road to the east, Bartlett Road to the north and Houser Road to the south. Primarily used for agriculture, the property currently sits within the city limits of Coolidge and Pinal County.
“After a comprehensive purchase process, we are very excited to be the investors that will bring this economic boom to the Southeast Valley and Arizona,” said Jackob Andersen, PLH President. “We chose this site for many reasons including the existing infrastructure, the current and planned transportation access and the existing sense of community born through its agricultural heritage. This really and truly is the Center of Arizona.”
Michael Zipprich, PLH Vice President agreed, “The acquisition will vastly grow the Metro Phoenix area and will become the catalyst in bringing Phoenix and Tucson closer together and better connected. As a group, we have worked diligently with the State, the State Land Department, Pinal County, Arizona Department of Transportation, the cities of Mesa and Coolidge and Nathan and Associates Inc. to ensure the viability of our long term vision.”
Nate Nathan, broker at Nathan and Associates Inc., has represented the City of Mesa since 2005. His team, including Courtney Buck, David Mullard and Daniel Baldwin, was instrumental in finding the right buyer for this property. “It was a good move on Mesa’s part to buy the land originally and based on the Mayor and City Council’s strategic planning, they knew when to sell,” said Nathan. “With a rich history in strategic investments, development and an agricultural affiliate, the principals of PLH LLC were absolutely the right fit.”
“With this investment, PLH will help secure a better quality of life for our community, spur industrial growth and ultimately create jobs for the region,” said Rick Miller, Growth Management Director for the City of Coolidge. “I have been working with the principals of PLH for several years on properties in Casa Grande, and I see them as a great partner with integrity in everything they do.”

“This piece of real estate converges the Southeast Valley with Metro Phoenix making it an economic engine for growth,” said Steve Miller, District Three Supervisor and Chairman of the Pinal County Board of Supervisors. “The group is known to us and with their experience and sense of partnership, we are excited for what this will do for the community, the planned North South Freeway and Arizona’s economy. This is an opportunity for the Pinal County communities to work together and shape our future to be the best place to live, work and play in Arizona.”

Banner Good Samaritan Hospital

Innovative Banner program helps cut healthcare costs

In its first year of performance, Banner Health Network (BHN) was successful in delivering more coordinated care and a considerable savings over traditional fee-for-service Medicare plans as part of the Medicare Pioneer Accountable Care Organization (ACO). BHN leaders are now focusing efforts on the true test of this model– whether it can be sustained and improved upon in coming years.

“We are very pleased by our first year results in Medicare’s Pioneer Accountable Care Organization,” said Tricia Nguyen, Chief Medical Officer for Banner Health Network. “Our ability to deliver shared savings, in excess of $13 million, has been the result of more coordinated care by our providers, advanced population health technology and surrounding our most vulnerable and chronically ill beneficiaries with supportive case management.”

In the first year BHN also demonstrated an ability to reduce hospital admissions, hospital length of stay and the need for hospital readmissions by supporting beneficiaries when they are most at risk and in need of care and advocacy. BHN was a top performer in terms of shared savings compared to other Pioneer organizations nationally.

“Through our experience, we believe the value-based Pioneer ACO model has merit, and that it has the potential to diminish the predominance of fee-for-service plans in government and private sectors,” said Chuck Lehn, CEO for Banner Health Network. “It is the best solution at this time for creating sustainability for the Medicare program, and could be the basis for historic change in the U.S. healthcare industry.”

Banner Health Network will proceed with the Pioneer ACO program in Performance Year 2 (calendar year 2013) and has begun recruiting additional physicians for Performance Year 3 (calendar year 2014).

The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation (CMMI), that operates the Pioneer program, reported that the results from the Pioneers overall were promising. “These results show that Pioneer ACOs have been successful in reducing costs for Medicare, improving the quality of care for their patients, and that incentives to align payment with quality can work.”

In December 2011, Banner Health Network announced that it had been selected as one of only 32 organizations in the country to demonstrate the Pioneer ACO Model.  The central premise of the Pioneer ACO effort is to create value through a highly coordinated, collaborative network of providers who are focused on achieving the highest level of wellness possible for their Medicare patients.

The financial incentive for Pioneer physician providers is to have improved financial benefit through shared savings, not increased volume of services that are reimbursed in a traditional fee-for-service model. Provider revenues are generated through a percentage of Medicare savings. Further, if provider expenses are greater than available Medicare funding, the individual ACO is at risk for that loss.

In addition to participating in the Medicare Pioneer ACO, BHN has developed accountable care relationships with Blue Cross Blue Shield of Arizona, Aetna, Health Net, United Healthcare and Cigna in the last 18 months.

BHN is comprised of Banner Health employed physicians and Banner affiliated physicians; 13 Banner hospitals (12 in the Phoenix metro area); Banner Health Centers and Clinics; and other Banner services in Arizona. The Network ensures convenient access to Medicare members with more than 2,600 physicians located throughout Maricopa County and into Pinal County.

housing.prices

No Housing Bubble for the Phoenix Area?

Despite dramatic home-price boosts, don’t expect another housing bubble anytime soon in the Phoenix area. A new report from the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University breaks down what’s happening in the Maricopa and Pinal County housing market, as of April:

* The median single-family home price climbed again to $181,399, up almost 30 percent from April of last year.
* The report’s author sees no housing bubble on the way, with a very tight supply of available homes for sale.
* He also sees no significant negative effect yet from rising interest rates on local housing demand.

Phoenix-area home prices have been soaring since they reached a low point in September 2011. The median single-family home price rose 29.6 percent — from $140,000 to $181,399 — between April 2012 and April 2013. Realtors will note the average price per square foot went up 23.5 percent. The median townhouse/condo price went up 34.6 percent.

“In previous reports, we predicted prices would rise significantly during the strong annual buying season that lasts until June,” says the report’s author, Mike Orr, director of the Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice at the W. P. Carey School of Business. “From February through April, the average price per square foot did rise more than 9 percent for single-family homes, but the upward pricing pressure may finally ease somewhat this month.”

One big reason for the price gains has been the chronic shortage of available homes for sale in the Phoenix area. The number of active single-family-home listings (not including those already under contract) fell 7.3 percent just from April 1 to May 1. Only 24 days of lower-end supply (priced under $150,000) is out there. However, the frequent drops in supply have at least slowed down enough to let the market accumulate 20 percent more listings than it had at the same time last year.

Investor interest in Phoenix has also waned as prices went up and better bargains were still available in other areas of the country. Orr says the institutional-investor buying spree here began in 2011, peaked in summer 2012, and is now in a downward trend. The percentage of homes purchased by both small and institutional investors in Maricopa and Pinal counties in April was 26.8 percent, down all the way from 39.7 percent in July 2012, and most of these purchases were actually made by small-scale investors.

Many of the investor-purchased homes have already been turned into rentals for people who lost their houses during the recession. Some commentators have been saying there might be another housing bubble when investors decide to sell these homes, but Orr strongly disagrees.

“Some commentators talk ominously of a bubble bursting when these homes come back onto the market,” he says. “Such talk gets a lot of attention because we are over-sensitized to bubble talk after the disruptive events of 2004 to 2006. However, this idea falls flat when we examine the actual number of homes involved. The entire institutional inventory of 10,000 to 11,000 rental homes here represents a tiny fraction, less than 1 percent, of our housing stock. If every single one were to be placed for sale next month, we would still have less supply than in a normal balanced market.”

Demand from investors is already being replaced by demand from owner-occupiers and second-home buyers. Most homes priced below $600,000 continue to attract multiple offers within a short time. The luxury market is also gaining some steam. Single-family-home sales activity overall went up 4 percent from April 2012 to this April, beginning to reverse a long downward trend in year-over-year activity.

“There has been much talk of the negative effect that rising interest rates might have on demand,” says Orr. “So far, the increases have been minor, and the main effect has been to reduce the motivation to refinance existing home loans. At the same time, higher interest rates often create a greater sense of urgency among home buyers, so if lenders simultaneously relax their underwriting rules, this could stimulate demand, rather than reduce it.”

The market also continues to recover from the foreclosure crisis. The number of completed foreclosures on homes and condos in April of this year was down 46 percent from April last year. Foreclosure starts – homeowners receiving notice their lenders may foreclose in 90 days – dropped 60 percent. Orr expects the rates to fall below long-term averages soon.

With fewer foreclosures coming on the market, some buyers have turned to new-home builders. However, Orr says the construction industry is still building far fewer homes than needed to keep up with rising population and demand in the area. This is partly because the prices of land, materials and construction labor are all rising as subcontractors struggle to attract more workers. He says the developers are also being very cautious in their expansion. They enjoy the fact that limited supply allows them to continue increasing prices faster than their costs and don’t want to disturb this trend by overbuilding.

“Given the balance between supply and population growth in Phoenix, home prices are unlikely to fall below today’s level and are more likely to continue to climb for a long time, though at a more gentle pace.”

Orr’s full report, including statistics, charts and a breakdown by different areas of the Valley, can be viewed at http://wpcarey.asu.edu/finance/real-estate/upload/Full-Report-201305.pdf. A podcast with more analysis from Orr is also available from knowWPCarey, the business school’s online resource and newsletter, at http://knowwpcarey.com/index.cfm?cid=13.

Scottsdale Area Chamber of Commerce’s prestigious Sterling Award.

Behring named Scottsdale’s city manager

The Scottsdale City Council has selected Fritz Behring to be the new city manager.

Behring has been Pinal County’s manager and also has been city manager in two Florida cities and one in Nebraska.

City officials announced the selection Wednesday.

Behring was one of three finalists for the Scottsdale job, which attracted 50 applicants in a nationwide search.

The other two were former Tempe City Manager Charlie Meyer and Tom Wilson, the assistant city manager for development services in Palm Springs, Calif.

Last July, Scottsdale City Manager David Richert resigned after two years on the job. At the time, he said he didn’t feel there was enough support from the mayor and councilors for him to be effective.

Scottsdale Area Chamber of Commerce’s prestigious Sterling Award.

Behring named Scottsdale's city manager

The Scottsdale City Council has selected Fritz Behring to be the new city manager.

Behring has been Pinal County’s manager and also has been city manager in two Florida cities and one in Nebraska.

City officials announced the selection Wednesday.

Behring was one of three finalists for the Scottsdale job, which attracted 50 applicants in a nationwide search.

The other two were former Tempe City Manager Charlie Meyer and Tom Wilson, the assistant city manager for development services in Palm Springs, Calif.

Last July, Scottsdale City Manager David Richert resigned after two years on the job. At the time, he said he didn’t feel there was enough support from the mayor and councilors for him to be effective.

home.prices

Phoenix-area Housing Prices Keep Soaring

Home prices continue their upward climb in the Phoenix area, with more momentum expected until at least June. A new report from the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University reveals the latest information about the Maricopa and Pinal County housing market, as of March:

The median single-family home price was all the way up to $175,000, about a 30-percent increase from March of last year.
The supply of homes for sale continued to fall, but the problem is not so much the high demand, but more the lack of sellers getting into the market.
Rebounding population growth in the Phoenix area is also blasting past the rate at which builders are constructing new homes.

Phoenix-area home prices reached a low in September 2011 and have largely shot up since then. The median single-family home price went up 29.7 percent – from $134,900 to $175,000 – in the year from March 2012 to March 2013. Realtors will note the average price per square foot went up 23.6 percent during the same time. The median townhouse/condo price increased 43.2 percent – from $81,000 to $116,000. A big reason for all this upward movement is the scarcity of affordable homes for sale.

“The number of active single-family listings has been dropping fast and went down another 4 percent from March 1 to April 1,” says the report’s author, Mike Orr, director of the Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice at the W. P. Carey School of Business. “Fewer than 12,000 single-family homes were up for sale (without an existing contract) on April 1, and 80 percent of those were priced above $150,000, making it very tough to find properties in the lower price range.”

Orr adds it’s actually not high demand that’s the major culprit here.

“The low number of sellers is what’s unusual, not the number of buyers, which is only slightly above normal,” he says. “Higher prices would normally encourage more ordinary home sellers into the market, but many are either locked into their homes because of negative equity, or they’re simply waiting for prices to go up more.”

Orr says most homes priced below $600,000 continue to attract multiple offers, and March is the peak of the buying season that lasts from January to June. However, due to the chronic supply shortage, the amount of single-family home sales actually went down 8 percent from March 2012 to March 2013.

Investors are also starting to lose some interest in the Phoenix area, since bigger bargains can be found in other areas of the country that haven’t rebounded as fast. The percentage of residential properties bought by investors dropped from 29.2 percent in February to 27.1 percent in March, the lowest percentage in several years. The market is now seeing increased demand from owner-occupiers and second-home buyers, instead.

Completed foreclosures were down an incredible 60 percent from March 2012 to March 2013. Foreclosure starts – homeowners receiving notice their lenders may foreclose in 90 days – dropped 53 percent. Orr believes we’ll see foreclosure-notice rates “below long-term averages” by the end of next year.

Meantime, new-home sales are also going up, in tandem with resale prices. In Maricopa County alone, new-home sales increased 37 percent from March 2012 to March 2013. However, new-home construction isn’t keeping pace with the Phoenix area’s rebounding post-recession population growth. The U.S. Census reports 1,220 single-family-home construction permits were issued in March, a very small number by historic standards. For example, the total in March 1996 was 3,071, and the total in March 2004 was 5,490.

“The population is growing much faster than the housing supply, with an expected 50,000 to 60,000 people being added to the Phoenix-area population this year, but only around 12,000 new single-family homes being built,” Orr explains. “Builders are scratching their heads, trying to figure out what to do. They don’t want to overbuild like they did during the peak, and they don’t want to build a bunch of new homes for people who can’t secure the mortgages needed to buy them with such tight lending conditions.”

Orr’s full report, including statistics, charts and a breakdown by different areas of the Valley, can be viewed at http://wpcarey.asu.edu/finance/real-estate/upload/Full-Report-201304.pdf. A podcast with more analysis from Orr is also available from knowWPCarey, the business school’s online resource and newsletter, at http://knowwpcarey.com/index.cfm?cid=13.

95770266

Phoenix-area Home Prices, Supply Slowly Inching Up

Both Phoenix-area home prices and the number of homes available for sale are slowly inching up. A new report from the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University reveals the numbers for Maricopa and Pinal Counties, as of August:

> The median single-family home price went up from $149,000 in July to $150,000 in August — about 1 percent.
> The median price is up by more than one-third (about 34 percent) from last August.
Supply of available homes for sale finally went slightly up in most areas of the Valley, but overall, low supply continues to limit market activity.

“Overall prices reached a low point in September 2011 and have risen sharply since then,” says the report’s author, Mike Orr, director of the Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice at the W. P. Carey School of Business. “We’re experiencing a normal summer slowdown, and I expect prices to continue their advance as we move into cooler months.”

The median single-family home price in the Phoenix area went up about 0.7 percent, from $149,000 in July to $150,000 in August. The current median is 33.7 percent higher than last August, when it was $112,205. Realtors will also note the average price per square foot is up 24.6 percent from last August.

Sales activity has been relatively slow, due to the traditional summer lull in the market and the limited number of homes for sale in the area. Still, there was a small bump up in available supply.

“Supply increased 3 percent from July to August, but the inventory of homes for sale remains well below the average for the last 10 years,” says Orr. “The number of active single-family homes without an existing contract was just over 10,000 for the greater Phoenix area as of Sept. 1, and 77 percent of those homes were priced above $150,000. That inventory should last only about 27 days. At least it’s up from the low of just 15 days of inventory in May.”

Average buyers have to compete for relatively few homes priced under $250,000. They face multiple bids, including those from investors who can offer all cash and no appraisal required. The situation is moderately improving, though. Orr says, as prices go up, more people are becoming willing to sell their homes. He believes supply recently moved higher in about 80 percent of the Valley, especially the outlying areas.

“August home sales were up 3.6 percent from July,” says Orr. “However, activity was still down 9.2 percent from August of last year. The reduction is primarily due to a huge decline in distressed sales: short sales and sales of homes that recently went through a foreclosure. Also, the number of bank-owned homes sold in August was down a huge 78 percent from last August.”

Foreclosure starts – homeowners receiving notice their lenders may foreclose in 90 days – went down 2.5 percent from July to August. Foreclosure starts are down almost 38 percent from last August. Still, Orr says this number is about 2.3 times normal for a typical month in the Valley. The number of completed foreclosures in August was down 22 percent from last August.

Investors continue to play a key role in the Phoenix area housing market. Almost 36 percent of the homes sold in Maricopa County in August went to investors. That’s up from 28 percent last August. More than half of the homes sold this August for $150,000 or less went to all-cash buyers.

“Some large investment companies have been buying homes in bulk from other investment companies,” explains Orr. “They are clearly frustrated by the difficulty of acquiring large numbers of homes through normal channels. Most of the properties are being used as rentals for tenants who have lost their former homes to foreclosure or through a short sale. In greater Phoenix, we have never seen so many single-family homes used as rental accommodation, and it will be interesting to see how elastic the demand is over the coming year.”

Many average buyers are turning to new-home sales, given the difficulty of getting a bargain resale. New-home sales went up 55 percent from August to August, and some developers are starting to cap sales to conserve lots. The number of active subdivisions is down 18 percent since the beginning of the year, and about 63 percent of those currently active are expected to sell out within 12 months.

Orr’s full report, including statistics, charts and a breakdown by different areas of the Valley, can be viewed at http://wpcarey.asu.edu/finance/real-estate/upload/FullReport201209.pdf. More analysis is also available from knowWPCarey, the business school’s online resource and newsletter, at http://knowwpcarey.com/index.cfm?cid=13.