Tag Archives: Retail Market

improvement forecast for retail market

Resurgent Economy Bodes Well For Valley Retail Market

As the economic recovery gains steam, the Phoenix retail market will continue to strengthen this year, according to a market forecast from Marcus & Millichap. Over the past 12 months, the metro has been one of the top-performing job markets in the country. Additionally, after years of setbacks, the housing market recorded six consecutive months of price increases through March.

As these trends unfold, retailers that shuttered during the housing crisis will be encouraged to expand in densely populated areas of the metro. Most of the submarkets will post positive absorption this year as new supply remains limited and national tenants, including Sprouts, Hobby Lobby, and Dollar General, capitalize on the available space and low rents. However, store closures by Borders, Circuit City and, more recently, Best Buy has left more than 8.5 million square feet of empty big-box space on the market. Operators sitting on large blocks of space in established areas will have to offer lucrative concessions to backfill the space, while properties in less-desirable neighborhoods will struggle to attract tenants. In the East Valley, a few owners will reconfigure layouts and offer smaller footprints to broaden their potential tenant roster, while others may redevelop the property into another commercial use.

As CMBS loans mature, more distressed properties will hit the market this year, attracting private investors seeking steep discounts. A bulk of the multi-tenant deals that traded in the last year involved bank-owned strip centers, a trend that will continue for the remainder of 2012 as banks foreclose on over-leveraged owners. In hard-hit areas of Mesa, Chandler, and Gilbert, where population growth did not meet prior expectations, buyers will be able to purchase highly vacant strip centers for below $60 per square foot. Well-capitalized local and California investors who waited on the sidelines will pay cash for troubled assets. The owner will renovate the property and adapt the use toward the changing demographics in the area. The new configuration, along with favorable leasing terms, will help the operator backfill the space over several quarters. After holding the asset for three to five years, the owner may list the stabilized strip center at a cap rate around 9 percent, depending on interest rates.

2012 ANNUAL RETAIL FORECAST

Employment: By year end, total employment will expand by 2 percent as companies generate 35,000 new jobs. The increase represents a modest uptick from last year, when employers hired 28,600 workers.

Construction: In 2012, projects totaling 600,000 square feet of retail space will be completed in Phoenix, expanding supply levels by 0.4 percent. In the previous year, construction output fell to the lowest level on record as builders delivered a mere 391,000 square feet.

Vacancy: As the economic recovery gains traction this year, retailers will continue to expand in the metro. Vacancy will finish 2012 at 11.2 percent, marking a 70-basis point improvement from a year earlier as tenants occupy 1.5 million square feet. In 2011, vacancy fell 30 basis points.

Rents: Asking rents will show a 0.5 percent increase this year to $18.18 per square foot, while effective rents will rise 0.6 percent to $15.26 per square foot. In 2011, owners trimmed asking rents 0.6 percent as effective rents retreated 0.5 percent.

For more information on the retail market forecast by Marcus & Millichap, visit Marcus & Millichap’s website at marcusmillichap.com.

Metro Phoenix 1Q Market Analysis

CBRE Releases 1Q 2012 Analysis Of Metro Phoenix Office, Industrial And Retail Markets

CBRE has released its 1Q 2012 market analysis of the metro Phoenix area office, industrial and retail sectors.  Report highlights include:

Office

  • The overall office market vacancy rate increased modestly in the first quarter of the year, rising from 25.5% at year-end 2011 to 26.1%. While vacancy remains high, the Phoenix area ranked fifth among major U.S. metropolitan markets in terms of absorption in 2011.
  • The average asking lease rate for existing office space continued to decline, ending the first quarter at $20.72 per SF. This marks the eighth consecutive quarter in which rates have decreased.
  • Just 959 SF of positive absorption was recorded throughout Metro Phoenix in the first quarter of the year. This was due, in part, to favorable market conditions causing tenants to renew early or trade up in terms of building class. Class A buildings had 266,875 SF of positive absorption, while Class B assets had 320,297 SF of negative absorption. Class C buildings reported positive absorption of 54,381 SF.
  • Speculative construction has returned, with a 92,109 SF office building breaking ground in the Chandler submarket. However, new product is not predicted to significantly impact the Valley’s vacancy rate in the near term.

 

Industrial

  • The industrial market recorded 1.5 MSF of positive net absorption in the first quarter. Leading the way was the Southeast submarket, reporting 795,912 SF of positive absorption. Conversely, the Northeast area reported negative absorption of 42,903 SF.
  • The overall industrial vacancy rate has dropped by slightly more than two full percentage points year-over-year to end the first quarter at 12.1%. Distribution product experienced the greatest improvement, declining from 16% to 11.4% during the same period. However, general industrial space has increased in vacancy, climbing to 17.2% from 15% one year ago.
  • The average asking industrial lease rate for existing product has remained flat since the end of 2009, hovering fairly consistently between $0.55 and $0.54 per SF. The average rate at the end of the first quarter stayed at $0.55 per SF.
  • Build-to-suits continue to dominate the market, representing 97.6% of all current construction activity or 3.25 MSF. Yet, it is expected that speculative construction on the first large-scale distribution building will occur this year, due to continued demand for space and a lack of product greater than 500,000 SF.

 

Retail

  • The Phoenix area retail market recorded 663,337 SF of positive absorption in the first quarter, which is the largest quarterly gain of occupied space in the past three years. Of its 12 submarkets, only Scottsdale recorded negative absorption in the first quarter, with a loss of 23,319 SF.
  • The overall retail vacancy rate in Metro Phoenix declined half a percentage point in the first quarter to 11.7%. The Mesa/Chandler/Gilbert submarket, which has the largest rentable area, reported the highest vacancy, 14.7%, while Apache Junction had the lowest vacancy rate, 6.4%.
  • The average net asking lease rate for existing retail space throughout the Phoenix area continued to decline in the first quarter of the year, dropping from $15.90 per SF at year-end 2011 to $15.71 per SF. By comparison, the current rate is identical to the average net asking lease rate one year ago.
  • While the total amount of available big box space decreased in the first quarter, leaving the market with 295 spaces and 8.1 MSF, it remains a concern for property owners. Much of this space, 71.5%, is classified as class C or D, which remains the most challenging product to backfill.