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Mike Haenel, Chairman, NAIOP - AZRE Magazine September/October 2011

NAIOP-AZ Mike Haenel A Major Player In Future Of State's CRE Industry

NAIOP-AZ chairman Mike Haenel a major player in the organization and in the future of state’s CRE industry

For 26 years, Mike Haenel, executive vice president for Cassidy Turley/BRE Commercial Industrial Group, has been successful marketing industrial and back-office land and building space in Arizona.

In the early 1990s, he even did a brief stint in the development side of the business.
Since 2003, Haenel has completed 300-plus deals worth a combined $740M. He also has collected several industry awards along the way.

But Haenel said he couldn’t have achieved these significant accomplishments without his partner, Andy Markham, and the support of Cassidy Turley.

They have been able to close transactions during the good and bad times.

So for more than two decades, he has been an active member of NAIOP — the organization he considers a must for anyone hoping to be a major player in Arizona’s commercial real estate future.

Now as NAIOP Arizona chairman, Haenel gets to set the course for the organization.

It’s a challenging time to be at the helm.

Arizona’s commercial real estate industry, like that of much of the country, is adrift in turbulent waters.

In Arizona, the industrial segment has hit bottom and is slowly heading back into better times, Haenel said.

The Phoenix metro area absorbed 3 MSF of industrial space in 2010, and, with the new Amazon warehouse deal, already surpassed 4 MSF by mid-year 2011.

“There are several large build-to-suits looking in the marketplace, and we expect to exceed 5.5 million square feet (absorbed by year-end),” he says.

But the office market, NAIOP’s other purview, is still foundering with too-high vacancy rates and too low rents.

Still, Haenel offers tempered optimism for that segment going forward.

Office rental rates “showed some stabilization” in second quarter, he says, and that is a hopeful sign.

“If we continue to absorb industrial space as we have for the last 18 months, I see speculative development again within the next three years,” Haenel says. “Clearly, office would be longer.”

NAIOP will be essential for charting a clear course through the still-choppy seas ahead, he adds.

Industry professionals banding together, exercising their combined clout and sharing knowledge and experience, helps them survive the difficult times and prosper when the storm clouds dissipate, Haenel says.

“NAIOP is such a great networking organization,” Haenel says. “It shows how important relationships are especially in a period like this. The relationships you create, nurture and foster help as the market recovers, but help (especially) when the market is as tough as it’s been.”

Haenel said while it’s a rough time for Arizona’s commercial real estate industry, it’s really not so bad sitting in NAIOP’s pilot seat.

The previous chairman, Todd Holzer of Ryan Companies US, and NAIOP Arizona president Tim Lawless, have set so many fruitful programs in motion, Haenel just has to hold the wheel steady, he says.

“I am grateful for the past chairmen and current/past board members who have built the organization to what it is today,” Haenel says.

But he has his own pet programs, too.

Member education, developing the industry’s future leaders and fostering positive public policy, are top focuses for the new chairman. He sees them as the keys not just for his organization, but for the future of Arizona’s commercial real estate industry.

Providing networking events, information sessions, and education opportunities for more than 540 members is so important for fostering relationships and keeping industry pros abreast of issues and concerns that impact their business, he says.

The Arizona chapter’s Market Leader Series, quarterly events that feature small panels of experts on such important local topics as job growth, distressed real estate and the like, has garnered standing- room-only attendance, he says.

This year, local members also get to share with their peers from around the country and showcase their own state’s attributes as Phoenix hosts NAIOP’s annual meeting in October.

Other key strategies for Haenel as he steers the NAIOP ship forward are mentoring and encouraging the next generation of local commercial real estate leaders to ensure the industry remains vital for the short- and long-term future.

“As we continue to get older, we are blessed to have some great young people coming up in the ranks,” he says. And Haenel is determined to indoctrinate them with the importance of his “build relationships” mantra.

He is a big backer of NAIOP’s Developing Leaders program, aimed at the under-35 up-and-comers, and the Arizona chapter’s DL Mentor Program, a new initiative that has been a year in development and has just launched.

Along with continuing education for all members and developing and nurturing the young members, the third leg of Haenel’s stool of NAIOP initiatives aimed at nursing the state’s commercial real estate industry back to health, is influencing public policy.

The group lobbied hard for HB2001, dubbed “the jobs bill,” which has several elements including tax incentives and the new Arizona Commerce Authority to proffer those enticements to businesses looking to expand or relocate. Haenel hopes the new legislation will reinforce Arizona’s image as business-friendly and provide a big lure for new or growing businesses and their commercial real estate needs.

Haenel says NAIOP will continue to pressure the legislature on issues that the organization feels could make Arizona more competitive for any type of businesses, and to educate members on the legal ramifications of any new or proposed bills and clarify why they should care.

His assessment of the local commercial real estate industry’s short-term future is that Arizona has all the right elements to take advantage of the recovery as it gains ground, and, long-term, to grow and prosper.

“Arizona is considered a top-tier commercial real estate community,” Haenel says. “We are so lucky to have the quality of professionals in Arizona to create and develop first-class commercial real estate projects. And that allows us to attract, compete and win high quality jobs.”NAIOP-AZ Chairman Mike Haenel

For more information about NAIOP-AZ and chairman Mike Haenel, visit www.naiop-az.org.

AZRE Magazine September/October 2011

 

NAIOP Roundtable 2011 - AZRE Magazine September/October 2011

NAIOP Roundtable 2011

NAIOP Roundtable 2011

The commercial real estate industry is clearly recovering. Companies are absorbing vacant space, build-to-suit development is active and abundant capital is pursuing core real estate. The key question remains, however, how do we compare with the other major markets when it comes to job and population growth?
In short, when will the market justify new development and how will the state and our local commercial real estate industry assist in this effort? To be sure, the future remains bright in Arizona but the recovery will last longer before the next boom.

— Mike Haenel


NAIOP Roundtable Participants Key NAIOP Roundtable - AZRE Magazine September/October 2011

Roundtable Participants

 

1 — SB: Scott Bjerk
President
Bjerk Builders, Inc.

2 — MC: Megan Creecy
Leasing and Development Manager
EJM Development Co.

8 — JD: John DiVall
Senior VP
Liberty Property Trust

MH: Mike Haenel
Executive VP, Industrial Group
Cassidy Turley BRE Commercial
Chairman Profile

6 — TH: Todd Holzer
VP of Development
Ryan Companies US

5 — KM: Keaton Merrell
Principal
Legacy Capital Advisors

7 — BM: Bob Mulhern
Managing Director Greater Phoenix
Colliers International

3 — DW: Deron Webb
Managing Principal
Wentworth Webb & Postal

4 — CW: Clay Wells
Director, Business Development
McShane Construction Co.


Q: What is different in July 2011 in our local commercial real estate industry than a year ago?

BM: The short answer is that the market is stronger, but still burdened by vacancy rates that are high by historical standards, despite being lower than recent peaks. What is decidedly different, however, is that the outlook is considerably brighter than it was a year ago.

Last year at this time, uncertainty was the overriding theme and it plagued the market. The industrial market had posted just one quarter of positive absorption, and it was unclear whether that was a one-time burst in activity or a sign that tenants were more optimistic and the industrial market was beginning to turn a corner. Now we can see that tenant demand for industrial space has been sustained for more than a year, vacancy is tightening, and rents are stabilizing. We are also seeing headline-making announcements from companies such as Amazon and First Solar that not only improve the numbers, but also renew confidence in the market as a whole.

The office market has been slower to bounce back, but it is far more stable today than it was a year ago. A year ago, we were averaging negative net absorption of more than 500,000 SF per quarter, and the vacancy rate was shooting higher. While absorption has been mixed in recent quarters — up one quarter, down the next — the overall vacancy trend is essentially flat. The market hasn’t necessarily started to improve, but it’s no longer in free fall. We’re forecasting slightly positive absorption in the second half of 2011 and then positive absorption of nearly 1 MSF in 2012. We think rents will likely tick lower through the remainder of this year, because the high availability of space will continue to create competition in the marketplace.

MC: Activity is up, but it is still the quintessential “tale of two tenants.” National companies with 200,000 SF+ warehouse requirements are in the market. And, there are definitely more of those types of requirements (including build-to-suits) in the market today than there were last year at this time.

When looking, however, at say deals in the 5,000 SF to 20,000 SF range, there has been an increase in activity, but the regional and local tenants who comprise a large portion of that market segment are still facing a lot of challenges, such as difficulty obtaining financing, and economic uncertainty. These challenges result in a constraint on their ability to expand and the lack of confidence needed to make long term real estate decisions, which is why we are still seeing a number of these tenants in the smaller size ranges wanting only short-term extensions in their current spaces.

TH: I sense that we are now a local real estate industry made up of survivors. The attrition of firms is over for the most part. Those remaining have right sized for this “new normal” that we find ourselves in. Companies in our business have had to make changes in their business plans and doing activities that they did not anticipate 4 to 5 years ago. I think that this transformation has completed where a year ago it was still finding itself.

Q: How would you compare our Metro Phoenix commercial real state market to other major markets throughout the Western U.S.?

BM: At present, the characteristic that best describes the Phoenix commercial real estate market is the vacancy rate, which is among the highest, if not the highest of the major markets in the Western U.S. In the period immediately preceding the recession, development in Phoenix was fairly active, and when the economy cratered and companies slashed payrolls, there was a significant supply/demand imbalance.

The difference between Phoenix and the major California markets — where employment losses were nearly as dramatic as losses here — is that those markets didn’t have nearly as much speculative construction in the pipeline. As a result, vacancies rose in California, but not to the heights that they rose in Phoenix.

The other state that makes for an interesting comparison is Texas, where development has historically been quite active — just like Phoenix. The primary difference between Phoenix and the major Texas markets in the recession and thus far in the recovery is that the Texas markets weren’t hit nearly as hard by job losses during the downturn and the state has led the way with job gains during the recovery.

Looking ahead, the picture brightens significantly. Most forecasts call for Phoenix to rebound favorably once the economic recovery really gains traction nationally. Long-term forecasts call for annual population and employment gains in the 2.5% range, which should be similar to the major Texas markets and far outpace the California markets. This anticipated expansion is the primary source of optimism in the Phoenix market — now we’re just waiting for it to happen.

CW: The Metro Phoenix commercial real estate market has actually fared no worse or better than the other major Western U.S. markets. Retail and office continue to struggle in most markets while industrial vacancies for building over 500,000 SF have started to decrease. Recently a 500,000 SF speculative building broke ground in the Inland Empire and I believe if the economy stays as is we will see a speculative industrial building in Phoenix breaking ground by 3Q 2012. Where the Phoenix market differs from the rest of the Western U.S., with the exception of Las Vegas, is the residential real estate market. Metro Phoenix was too dependent on the residential construction market for creating jobs.

The reason this is so important until we create new jobs to replace these lost jobs, the retail and office sectors will continue to be slow to recover. People have to have a job, which allows them to have diposable income to spend at stores creating a need for new retailers. The same can be said for the office market. Until new companies locate to Metro Phoenix or are created here the need for office space will remain depressed. Most activity we are seeing in the office market are new investors coming to Metro Phoenix and buying distressed properties at a discount. This allows them to quote reduced rents forcing a downward pressure on existing landlords, who must rent space at a loss or lose a tenant. Office markets in some cities that have a more diverse economic base are recovering at a better pace than Metro Phoenix.

MC: While there has been increased activity across the Western U.S., the divergence is in the stage of recovery in primary markets such as the Inland Empire, vs. secondary markets like Phoenix.

The Inland Empire, for example, is one of the strongest industrial markets in the country with vacancy at 6.3%, which is the lowest vacancy rate in 14 quarters. By comparison, Phoenix’s Q2 2011 industrial vacancy rate was 13.9%, which was our 5th consecutive quarterly decline. But, I would say that the steady decline in vacancy we are experiencing here in Phoenix is a positive indicator, and it is only a matter of time before our recovery picks up speed.

Todd Holzer, NAIOP-AZ - AZRE Magazine September/October 2010

NAIOP-AZ Chairman Todd Holzer Provides Leadership At Crucial Time

After more than a quarter century in commercial real estate, Todd Holzer, chairman of NAIOP-AZ, has been witness to many industry ups and downs.

Holzer began his career with Opus Southwest in Phoenix and San Diego. After 12 years at Opus, he moved on to DeRito Partners, where he spent eight years developing retail projects. Now in his sixth year at Ryan Companies US Inc., specializing in office and industrial projects and overall marketing for its Southwest regional operation, Holzer says market conditions in Arizona make for some intriguing times.

“Two things that I find interesting about our local market: First, the volatility of the Metro Phoenix market has to be among the greatest of all major U.S. markets,” Holzer says. “It seems that in my career, the overall market conditions for office and industrial have either been on fire or in the dumps. There are days I wish we were a little more steady, like some other Ryan offices in the Midwest. The feast-or-famine scenario we have can be an emotional and economic roller coaster for those in the business.

“Secondly, and again unfortunately, I always think about what could have been a very cool, relevant Downtown Phoenix. Despite some good vision out of the City of Phoenix political leaders, we are still a metro area that has grown outward with sprawl. I wonder if true urbanism can happen here. Most people live here to take advantage of activities that are suburban in nature: golf, hiking and other outdoor activities that don’t occur in a downtown setting.”

Holzer takes the reins at NAIOP-AZ during rocky economic times, but he says he is up to the challenge. When he started at Opus, he joined NAIOP-AZ mainly for networking purposes.

“When I moved into retail development, I spent more time and energy in other organizations such as ICSC, Valley Partnership and ULI,” he says. “But when I came to Ryan with an office and industrial focus, I decided that I needed to get back into NAIOP and take on a leadership role.”

Holzer has been on NAIOP’s local board of directors for five years and on the national board for three. After about two years on the local board, he was asked to take on the time and challenge of training for his eventual role as chairman.

“I have served under a few visionary and hard-working chairmen that have given me the experience to run the local chapter in what are very challenging times,” he says.

Holzer is not one to dwell on the negative. Instead, he says focus should be put on the quality of projects being built today, including NAIOP-member LEED certification initiatives.

“I take my hat off to some developers in our market that build with quality and with vision,” he says. “RED Development building CityScape and SunCor building Hayden Ferry are great projects that went to a level that most developers would not go.

“In my opinion, there has not been an increase in the quality of office projects over the last 15 to 20 years. The granite exterior projects built in the ’80s and early ’90s have stood the test of time. Most developers don’t build true quality because they are building to the level requested by the tenant and user market, and tenant and user groups have been fixed upon cost rather than quality and amenities.

“On the other hand, industrial projects have been built in the last cycle to a much higher standard of function than in the past.”

Among those higher standards is building to LEED specifications and the move toward more energy-efficient projects. Nationally, Holzer says, NAIOP has become fully engaged in LEED initiatives by having educational events tied around the green movement, with the major event being an annual conference dedicated to energy-efficient development. Phoenix hosted the conference a few years ago.

“Locally, we are giving awards to the best energy efficient new development each year at our Best of NAIOP event,” he says.

Examples of recent projects, Holzer cites, are Liberty Property Trust and its Scottsdale building for Vanguard; Lincoln Property Company and the Arizona Game and Fish Department building; Ryan’s 3900 E. Camelback building; and Hines’ office building at 24th Street and Camelback. There also are numerous local municipal and higher-education projects that have been built to LEED standards.

For those in the commercial real estate industry preparing for the future, Holzer offers this advice:

“At the present time, our industry is going through a monumental change,” he says.

“Speculative development will not re-appear for approximately five years in the Valley, so new development will be way down and that side of the business will not be hiring. People and companies will need to reinvent themselves. Take your strengths and use them in different ways within our industry.

“We are still the fifth-largest city in the country and our role as a major place of commerce in the Western U.S. will continue to grow.”

Holzer predicts 2011 will be a sequel of 2009 and 2010; users and tenants are price sensitive and looking for deals.

“We are in a period where land, rents and construction costs are on sale,” he says. “Those with a long-term approach and sufficient funding can solve real estate needs at very attractive costs.”

Some of the biggest challenges Holzer sees in 2011 are lack of capital and nominal job growth. The industrial sector needs capital to be available to companies for expansion and purchasing of inventories and equipment, he says, and the office sector is tied to job creation.

“Unless we can get local and national job creation to pick up dramatically, high-vacancy rates and shadow space inventory will continue with us,” Holzer explains. “The main challenge facing most sectors of commercial real estate is the national political scene and the decisions coming out of Washington, D.C. There is too much uncertainty currently for small business owners to make real estate decisions.”

For more information about NAIOP-AZ and Todd Holzer, visit naiop-az.org.

AZRE Magazine September/October 2010

NAIOP, AZRE Magazine September/October 2010

NAIOP Roundtable 2010: Q&A With Members of NAIOP

NAIOP Roundtable 2010: Q&A With Members of NAIOP

Members of NAIOP-AZ sat down with AZRE magazine in a roundtable discussion, discussing the state of the local commercial real estate industry.


NAIOP Roundtable 2010 NAIOP Roundtable 2010 Participants

NAIOP Roundtable 2010 Participants:

1 — DW: Deron Webb, Managing Principal, Wentworth Webb & Postal 5 — BM: Bob Mulhern, Managing Director Greater Phoenix, Colliers International

2 — JB: Jodi Bailey, VP Property Management Services, Transwestern

6 — KR: Kurt Rosene, Senior VP, The Alter Group
3 — WS: William L. Spart, Senior VP & Manager, Middle Market Real Estate, Wells Fargo Bank 7 — TH: Todd Holzer, VP of Development, Ryan Companies US
4 — MH: Mike Haenel, Executive VP, Industrial Group, Cassidy Turley/BRE Commercial 8 — JD: John DiVall, Senior VP, Liberty Property Trust

Economy

TH: We are more than two years into the so-called “Great Recession.” How much longer will it last? Will Arizona pull out the same time as the rest of the nation? Since the commercial real estate industry is closely tied to the job market, it’s been a bumpy ride.

Q: What is different in July 2010 in our local commercial real estate industry than a year ago?

MH: The two biggest differences today compared to a year ago, are that tenant demand is on the rise and there are limited distressed industrial real estate opportunities available for sale. It’s important to note that, because we have not seen the oversupply of distressed real estate hit the market, values are higher than we thought they would be given the overall market conditions. This has translated into a significant and noticeable increase in tenant demand.

JD: It is marginally better. As part of the Arizona NAIOP, I wish I could say substantially better, but it’s not. There is more activity, but rates are still depressed, and we are now in the summer doldrums. We are clearly experiencing a jobless recovery. With no new construction on the horizon, we should gradually absorb space and improve.

WS: There are more lenders jumping into the market. We are seeing conduit, CMBS, life and other banks. A year ago we did not see much activity.

Q: How would you compare our Metro Phoenix commercial real estate market to other major markets throughout the Western U.S.?

BM: Phoenix’s metro commercial real estate market has been hit harder than most Western cities, with Las Vegas being the exception. At the end of the second quarter Phoenix vacancies for office (29 MSF/22.5%), industrial (41 MSF/17.7%) and retail (28 MSF/13.3%) were all in historically high ranges, and they remain significantly higher than other Western cities such as Denver (6.7% industrial/14.8% office), San Diego (8.7% industrial/16.2% office), and Los Angeles (not including Orange County and the Inland Empire — 5.0% industrial/12.7% office). Most of the basic fundamentals that draw people to the Valley are still in place, but the lack of job growth, coupled with the depressed residential housing market, are continuing to act as detriments to a commercial real estate rebound. Recognizing these realities, it should be noted that multi-family sales, for which purchase financing is available, are very strong, and that foreign investors, especially from Canada, are entering the market and helping create some velocity in the private client sales market.

JB: Phoenix is a very dynamic commercial real estate market with a highly skilled labor force, an abundance of labor because we are a right-to-work state with competitive wages, and reliable, lower cost energy sources for large users. Ultimately, this means that we attract a wide variety of users from semiconductor manufacturers, biotech/life science laboratories, aerospace and Department of Defense manufacturing, as well as back office and data center occupiers of space. Each building occupier has their reasons for choosing Phoenix over other markets, but we find ourselves to be very competitive as compared to other regional markets.

TH: Phoenix is in the infamous Bermuda Triangle of both residential and commercial real estate, which also includes Las Vegas and the Inland Empire of California. Because of the housing market dive, cities in this area went into recession mode before the rest ofthe nation, and the drop in our economy has been greater than most. Los Angeles, San Francisco and Seattle keep their economy above water due to Pacific Rim trade. Denver has energy and high tech, and Salt Lake City was not overbuilt. Texas has fared well due to energy and the George W. Bush presidency. It will be a long and difficult struggle for Metro Phoenix to pull out of the tough times it finds itself in.

Q: How are the boycotts and state public policies affecting our industry?

BM: I have not heard one comment about the boycott in our offices or from any of our clients, which is an indication to me that the boycotts, though serious issues, do not rank high in the commercial real estate priorities of concern. Shrinking rents and occupancies are a much bigger issue these days.

Regarding public policy, the inability of the federal and state governments to implement policies and programs to stimulate job growth is prolonging our recession. There will not be a jobless recovery so, until jobs are created, our industry is continuing to experience high levels of tumult.

Public policy toward banks is also prolonging our recession as the de-leveraging process is being allowed to be spread over time, preventing the painful, but inevitable total market reset necessary to stabilize the real estate market and allow it to begin to create some positive momentum.

TH: The boycotts are affecting the convention and tourist sector, but I do not believe that they have affected the office and industrial markets here in Arizona. Companies choose to come here due to the ease of doing business and quality of life, not due to our state’s policy on immigration. That being said, our state needs to make job creation and business attraction a primary focus. We need the Legislature and the governor’s office to make jobs our No. 1 priority. I suggest a formal jobs bill from our legislative leadership should come forward that includes a lower tax burden on hiring businesses and commercial property owners.

DW: After the initial national “knee jerk” reaction of higher deficit spending and dubious stimulus policy, leaders underestimated the outcry and we did not do a good job of getting the message out nationally. Projects have been stalled and some major players are taking a wait-and-see attitude. Any time there is substantial disturbance, those active in the market cool.