In an updated forecast released today, the Arizona Department of Commerce Forecast reports that the state’s nonfarm job losses for 2010 have been revised downwardly. The department now forecasts that the state’s economy will lose 25,700 jobs this year, as opposed to the 50,400 originally forecast. However, the department also revised its forecast on how many nonfarm jobs Arizona’s economy will create in 2011, from 23,100 to 16,500. The fact that Arizona will be losing fewer jobs this year is being attributed to:
- Federal government economic stimulus program spending that began in 2009.
- Continued employment growth in the education and health services sector.
- Improved job growth in the professional and business services; trade, transportation, and utilities; leisure and hospitality; and natural resources and mining sectors.
- Stronger than anticipated global economic growth.
The downward revision in 2011’s job growth rate is being attributed to:
- Tepid growth in the private sector due to sluggish business and consumer spending.
- Large state and local government budget deficits.
- A slowdown in population growth.
- Limited consumer and small business lending by banks.
Gains in five sectors and losses in six sectors are expected over the two-year period (2009 to 2011). The major sectors in the Arizona economy where job gains are forecast include: educational and health services; professional and business services; trade, transportation and utilities; leisure and hospitality; and natural resources and mining. Sectors with projected job losses during the same time period include: government; construction; financial activities; information; manufacturing; and other services.
Arizona Sector Employment
Average Annual Over-the-Year Change
|
|
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
|
Total Nonfarm |
-7.3% |
-1.1% |
0.7% |
|
Manufacturing |
-11.6 |
-3.0% |
1.3% |
|
Natural Resources/Mining |
-17.8% |
1.8% |
12.3% |
|
Construction |
-30.8% |
-11.8% |
1.8% |
|
Trade, Trans. & Utilities |
-7.1% |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
Information |
-6.4% |
-6.4% |
-2.9% |
|
Financial Activities |
-5.0% |
-3.2% |
-1.6% |
|
Professional & Business Svcs |
-10.4% |
-0.3% |
2.8% |
|
Educational & Health Svcs |
2.7% |
2.6% |
1.8% |
|
Leisure & Hospitality |
-5.2% |
0.4% |
0.8% |
|
Other Services |
-6.6% |
-2.1% |
2.0% |
|
Government |
-2.2% |
-1.8% |
-1.9% |
Total Nonfarm Employment
Annual Average Growth Rate
|
|
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
|
Arizona |
-7.3% |
-1.1% |
0.7% |
|
Phoenix MSA |
-7.9% |
-1.0% |
0.8% |
|
Tucson MSA |
-5.1% |
-1.1% |
0.4% |
|
Rest of State |
-6.4% |
-1.1% |
0.6% |
