Healthcare, construction and hospitality will lead job growth as Arizona’s employment expands nearly four times faster than the national average, according to a new report from the Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity (OEO).
Arizona is projected to add more than 412,000 jobs over the next decade, with healthcare, construction and hospitality driving much of the growth as the state’s economy continues to outpace the nation, according to the OEO report.
The Arizona 2025-2035 Projected Employment Report, released Nov. 5, forecasts that statewide employment will increase from 3,477,669 jobs in 2025 to 3,889,995 jobs in 2035. That represents a gain of 412,326 jobs, or an average annual growth rate of 1.1%.
By comparison, U.S. employment is projected to increase just 0.3% annually during the same period, meaning Arizona’s employment growth rate is expected to be nearly four times the national pace.
While the outlook points to continued economic expansion, it also represents a slowdown from the previous decade. Between 2015 and 2025, Arizona added 672,537 jobs, reflecting annual growth of 2.2%.
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Healthcare leads Arizona’s job growth
Healthcare and social assistance is expected to be Arizona’s fastest-growing major employment sector, adding 112,612 jobs by 2035. The sector’s projected annual growth rate of 2.1% reflects increasing demand for medical services as Arizona’s population expands and ages.
Construction follows with a projected annual growth rate of 1.9%, adding 48,483 jobs over the decade.
Leisure and hospitality is projected to add 59,979 jobs, growing 1.4% annually, while trade, transportation and utilities will contribute another 65,465 jobs.
Professional and business services is expected to gain 47,370 jobs, and manufacturing is projected to add 22,815 positions.
Together, these industries represent a substantial portion of Arizona’s anticipated employment expansion.
Arizona industries projected to gain the most jobs by 2035
| Industry | Projected job gains |
|---|---|
| Healthcare and social assistance | 112,612 |
| Trade, transportation and utilities | 65,465 |
| Leisure and hospitality | 59,979 |
| Construction | 48,483 |
| Professional and business services | 47,370 |
| Manufacturing | 22,815 |
| Financial activities | 16,148 |
| Other services | 10,835 |
| Educational services | 5,317 |
| Government | 4,049 |
Not every industry is expected to expand. Natural resources and mining is projected to lose 1,647 jobs, while the information sector is expected to decline by 657 positions.
Government and educational services are expected to experience the slowest positive growth, each increasing by just 0.2% annually.
Maricopa County dominates Arizona job creation
Maricopa County is projected to account for the overwhelming majority of Arizona’s new jobs, adding 327,037 positions between 2025 and 2035.
That represents approximately 79% of the state’s projected employment gains.
The county’s annual employment growth rate of 1.2% is also among the highest in Arizona, reinforcing Metro Phoenix’s position as the state’s primary economic engine.
Pima County is expected to add 35,767 jobs, making it the second-largest contributor to statewide employment growth.
Pinal County, which continues to attract manufacturing, industrial and residential development, is projected to gain 10,938 jobs. Yavapai County follows closely with 10,474 additional positions.
Although Maricopa County leads in total job creation, Graham County is expected to record the fastest percentage growth, with employment increasing 1.3% annually.
Arizona counties projected to add the most jobs
| County | Projected job gains |
|---|---|
| Maricopa | 327,037 |
| Pima | 35,767 |
| Pinal | 10,938 |
| Yavapai | 10,474 |
| Coconino | 6,472 |
| Mohave | 5,999 |
| Yuma | 5,701 |
| Navajo | 1,849 |
| Graham | 1,711 |
| Gila | 1,459 |
All 15 Arizona counties are expected to experience employment gains during the forecast period.
However, growth will vary significantly by region. Cochise County is projected to add just 764 jobs, representing annual growth of 0.2%, while Apache County is expected to gain 857 jobs, growing 0.4% annually.
Population growth fuels demand for workers
Arizona’s projected employment expansion is closely tied to continued population growth, particularly as residents relocate to the state from other parts of the country.
The OEO report assumes Arizona will remain among the nation’s fastest-growing states, with migration continuing to support economic activity.
That population growth is expected to increase demand for healthcare, housing, transportation, retail services and other essential industries.
However, demographic changes also present challenges.
As Arizona’s population ages, labor force participation rates could face downward pressure, potentially making it more difficult for employers to fill available positions.
The report also anticipates rising demand for healthcare services as the state’s demographics shift, helping explain why healthcare and social assistance is projected to lead employment growth.
Arizona’s economic outlook remains positive
Despite the projected slowdown from the previous decade, Arizona’s employment outlook remains considerably stronger than the national forecast.
The state is expected to continue creating jobs across a broad range of industries, with particularly strong opportunities in healthcare, construction, hospitality and professional services.
Still, OEO emphasizes that its projections depend on several economic assumptions, including the absence of major, prolonged economic or political disruptions, relatively stable national economic conditions and continued long-term industry trends.
The projections also assume that government agencies will maintain employment within existing budget constraints.
For Arizona employers, economic development organizations and workforce training institutions, the forecast highlights both an opportunity and a challenge: preparing enough qualified workers to support the state’s continued expansion.
With more than 412,000 additional jobs anticipated by 2035, Arizona’s next decade of growth will depend not only on attracting new businesses and investment, but also on developing the workforce needed to sustain them.
