Arizona’s population is projected to grow by more than 2 million people over the next 35 years, pushing the state close to the 10 million-resident mark and further concentrating growth in Metro Phoenix.
New population projections from the Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity estimate the state will grow from 7.72 million residents in 2025 to 9.75 million in 2060. That represents an increase of 2.03 million people, or 26%.
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But the growth will be far from evenly distributed.
Pinal County is projected to be Arizona’s runaway growth leader, with its population more than doubling from 502,071 in 2025 to nearly 1.1 million in 2060 — an increase of 118%.
That growth would put Pinal County nearly on par with Pima County, which is projected to have 1.14 million residents in 2060 after growing just 5% during the 35-year period.
Here are the projections at a glance:
| County | 2025 Estimated Population | 2060 Projected Population | Numeric Change | Percent Change | As a Percent of State Population, 2060 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apache | 65,998 | 55,873 | -10,125 | -15% | 0.6% |
| Cochise | 129,042 | 120,476 | -8,566 | -7% | 1.2% |
| Coconino | 149,453 | 154,217 | 4,764 | 3% | 1.6% |
| Gila | 53,908 | 48,686 | -5,222 | -10% | 0.5% |
| Graham | 40,277 | 47,488 | 7,211 | 18% | 0.5% |
| Greenlee | 9,687 | 12,165 | 2,478 | 26% | 0.1% |
| La Paz | 17,273 | 13,975 | -3,298 | -19% | 0.1% |
| Maricopa | 4,787,790 | 6,070,046 | 1,282,256 | 27% | 62.3% |
| Mohave | 231,078 | 243,003 | 11,925 | 5% | 2.5% |
| Navajo | 111,365 | 96,350 | -15,015 | -13% | 1.0% |
| Pima | 1,093,761 | 1,143,575 | 49,814 | 5% | 11.7% |
| Pinal | 502,071 | 1,096,916 | 594,845 | 118% | 11.2% |
| Santa Cruz | 51,324 | 60,733 | 9,409 | 18% | 0.6% |
| Yavapai | 253,595 | 297,944 | 44,349 | 17% | 3.1% |
| Yuma | 222,125 | 289,118 | 66,993 | 30% | 3.0% |
| Arizona | 7,718,747 | 9,750,566 | 2,031,819 | 26% | 100.0% |
Metro Phoenix drives Arizona population growth
Maricopa County will remain Arizona’s population powerhouse, adding more than 1.28 million residents and growing from 4.79 million people in 2025 to 6.07 million in 2060, a 27% increase.
Combined, Maricopa and Pinal counties are projected to account for 73.5% of Arizona’s population by 2060. Maricopa County alone would represent 62.3% of the state’s residents.
The projections underscore the continued economic importance of Metro Phoenix and the surrounding region as employers, developers and policymakers prepare for additional demand for housing, infrastructure, healthcare, education and other services.
Elsewhere, Yuma County is projected to grow 30%, from 222,125 to 289,118 residents. Greenlee County is also projected to grow 26%, while Graham and Santa Cruz counties are each expected to increase 18% and Yavapai County is projected to grow 17%.
Several counties face a dramatically different outlook.
Apache County is projected to lose 15% of its population by 2060, while Navajo County is expected to decline 13%. La Paz County is projected to shrink 19%, Gila County 10% and Cochise County 7%.
Coconino, Mohave and Pima counties are projected to experience relatively modest growth of 3%, 5% and 5%, respectively.
Arizona population continues to age
Arizona’s changing age profile could have equally significant implications for the state’s economy and workforce.
In 2025, residents age 65 and older account for 22% of Arizona’s population. That share is projected to rise to 26% in 2035, 27% in 2045 and 29% by 2055.
The state’s oldest population is expected to grow even faster. Arizonans age 85 and older represent 2% of the population in 2025 but are projected to account for 7% by 2055 — more than tripling their share of the population.
Meanwhile, the proportion of Arizona residents ages 18 to 64 is projected to decline from 58% in 2025 to 55% by 2055. The share of residents younger than 18 is expected to fall from 20% to 17%.
Those demographic shifts could have long-term implications for Arizona’s labor supply, healthcare system and demand for senior services.
Migration becomes critical to growth
Another major demographic shift is approaching: Arizona is projected to record more deaths than births as early as 2029.
Deaths are expected to rise approximately 3% annually during the next decade from about 71,000 in 2025 before the pace of growth slows. Births, starting at approximately 79,000 in 2025, are projected to increase less than 1% annually for roughly 15 years before beginning a prolonged decline.
By the 2050s, annual deaths are projected to exceed births by more than 40,000, creating what demographers call a natural population decrease.
Despite that shift, Arizona’s overall population is projected to continue growing throughout the forecast period because of robust net migration.
That means attracting new residents will become increasingly important to Arizona’s long-term population growth — even as where those residents choose to live continues reshaping the state’s economic map.
