Marcus & Millichap (NYSE: MMI) has published its Q4 2026 Phoenix Metro Area Industrial report, which shows a 240-basis-point decline in vacancy.

 “Phoenix industrial has moved beyond the supply-demand imbalance created by the recent construction cycle and is entering a healthier phase of the market. Large-block vacancy is falling, new supply is moderating and users are continuing to absorb the space delivered during the last development cycle. Those are encouraging indicators for owners and investors.” said Ryan Sarbinoff, senior managing director, market leader.

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Key findings include:

  • Metro vacancy declined 240 basis points during the year ended in June, among the strongest reductions nationally. Vacancy in spaces larger than 250,000 square feet fell below 10%, while the 50,000- to 100,000-square-foot segment recorded negative absorption.
  • Industrial deliveries are projected to fall nearly 50% from 2025 to 9 million square feet, the lowest annual total since 2019. Two bulk warehouses exceeding 1 million square feet are scheduled for completion  along the Loop 303 corridor.
  • Phoenix added roughly 21,000 jobs during the first eight months of 2026 after losing 3,500 positions in 2025, providing a strengthening economic backdrop for industrial demand. 
  • Transaction activity rose 20% during the year ended in June, with increased trading near Sky Harbor and along the U.S. 60-Glendale corridor. Activity in the Southeast declined roughly 25%, although the area remained the metro’s primary source of warehouse transactions.
  • The 2026 forecast calls for vacancy to decline 200 basis points to 11.4% and average asking rent to increase 1.1% to $12.35 per square foot by year-end. The metro is projected to add 33,000 jobs.

 “Phoenix industrial has moved beyond the supply-demand imbalance created by the recent construction cycle and is entering a healthier phase of the market. Large-block vacancy is falling, new supply is moderating and users are continuing to absorb the space delivered during the last development cycle. Those are encouraging indicators for owners and investors,” added Sarbinoff. 

Access the report here.