CommercialCafe analyzed career opportunities for mid-skilled workers across major U.S. metro areas, comparing labor market conditions that shape wage growth, job mobility and access to higher-paying roles in U.S. metro areas with more than 1 million residents. Happily, Phoenix ranks among the best cities in the country for mid-skilled workers.

The study examined U.S. metro areas with more than 1 million residents using five labor market indicators, including median wage growth for mid-skill jobs (2014–2024), job-to-job flow rates, mid-skill employment share and the availability of higher-paying mid-skill occupations.

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Here are some of the key highlights:

  • Median wages for mid-skill jobs in Phoenix increased by 38% between 2014 and 2024, an above average growth which placed it ahead of all California entries.
  • As of 2024, the median annual wage for a mid-skilled worker in Phoenix stood at $52,035.
  • Phoenix recorded a 27% job-to-job flow rate, compared with the 18% average across the metro areas included in the study.
  • 36% of mid-skill workers employed in jobs across Phoenix are in roles that pay above the metro-wide median wage.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates that, this decade, roughly 60% of jobs will not require applicants to have an associate’s, bachelor’s or graduate degree — an evolution that is not accidental, but rather the result of several shifts within the U.S. labor market.

Among a variety of driving factors, the mounting cost of college education is the most obvious incentive for young people to take alternative paths that would allow them to avoid acquiring crippling debt.

Given the context of recent generations looking for ways to break from a heavily encumbered status quo, we conducted an analysis that aimed to understand and classify the various U.S. labor environments with particular focus on the opportunities they each present for mid-skill worker career advancement.

What the analysis showed about Phoenix

The high job-to-job flow in Phoenix signals a very different economic model — one defined by rapid expansion, low barriers to entry and high replaceability.

Consequently, mid-skill workers in industries such as construction, hospitality or general services frequently jump between similar roles, which creates plenty of movement in the labor market (27% job-to-job flow rate). But, from an employee point of view, it often ends up being a sideways step in terms of pay.

Indeed, precisely because there’s a constant supply of new labor, employers don’t feel the same pressure to pay a massive “retention premium” as they do in a more specialized metro area like Riverside, Calif. Furthermore, Phoenix firms also benefit from the fact that they don’t need to compete with another neighboring major hub (as is the case in southern California).