Arizona’s retirees are heading toward a significant financial shortfall, with the average 65-year-old in the state projected to run out of money before they run out of years, according to a new analysis by CareScout, a Genworth Financial subsidiary.
The study, which examined life expectancy, Social Security income, household net worth, and cost-of-living data across all 50 states and Washington, D.C., ranks Arizona 12th among states where seniors face the steepest financial risk in retirement.
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The average Arizona retiree can expect to bring in approximately $822,000 from Social Security, savings, and investments over the course of their retirement — but will spend an estimated $984,000 on housing, healthcare, food, transportation, and other essentials. That $163,000 gap is not a rounding error. For most families, it is a crisis that arrives quietly and hits hard.
A separate CareScout cost-of-care survey helps explain why. Long-term care costs in Arizona rose sharply in 2025 across nearly every care category.
A private room in an Arizona nursing home now runs $137,240 annually — up 9% in a single year and well above the national median of $129,575.
Semi-private nursing home rooms climbed 10% to $100,375.
Home care from a non-medical caregiver costs $86,944 per year in Arizona, a 9% increase that outpaces the national average of $80,080 by nearly $7,000. Only assisted living showed modest relief, dipping 3% to $74,220 — though that figure still represents more than $6,000 per month. These are not abstract statistics. They are the bills Arizona families are being handed, often without warning and without a plan.
Arizona’s outcome mirrors a national trend that is broader and more severe than most Americans realize. Seniors in 41 states and Washington, D.C., are projected to outlive their savings. Only nine states leave older adults with a financial surplus.
Nationally, the average 65-year-old faces a $109,000 shortfall — the difference between the roughly $788,000 they are likely to accumulate from retirement income and the approximately $897,000 they will spend on necessities over a retirement that now spans nearly 19 years on average.
The numbers land against an already anxious backdrop. Americans now believe they need $1.46 million to retire comfortably, a figure that has jumped $200,000 in a single year, according to Northwestern Mutual.
At the same time, 40% of Baby Boomers and 50% of Gen Xers believe they will outlive their savings — and 8% of non-retired adults have already tapped retirement accounts just to cover current expenses, according to the Federal Reserve.
The geographic divide is stark. New York seniors face the largest projected shortfall, at $471,000, driven by lifetime expenses exceeding $1.18 million relative to income of roughly $712,000. Washington, D.C., and California trail close behind at $432,000 and $395,000.
On the other end, Washington state leads all states with a $276,000 surplus, followed by New Hampshire at $240,000 and Colorado at $188,000 — states where retirement income and costs align in ways that give seniors a genuine shot at financial stability through their later years.
For Arizona, the challenge is compounded by a retirement population that is growing faster than the infrastructure around it. The state has long attracted retirees drawn by its climate and relative affordability, but the care cost data from CareScout make clear that the math has tightened considerably.
A state that feels affordable at 65 can look very different at 80 — particularly when nursing home costs are rising at nearly three times the national pace.
That is precisely why CareScout’s mission has never been more urgent. I am running a few minutes late; my previous meeting is running over.
The company offers “Care Plans” — personalized evaluations developed with licensed nurses that give families a concrete starting point before care becomes urgent.
Rather than scrambling to make decisions during a medical crisis, families who engage with a Care Plan early understand their options, know what care costs in their region, and enter aging with a roadmap rather than panic.
Alongside that, CareScout’s “Care Assurance long-term care insurance” is designed to address what the cost of care data keeps confirming: that care costs rise faster than most people plan for, and that protecting a financial legacy requires acting during peak earning years, not after the need has already arrived.
“For many families in Arizona, long-term care costs aren’t theoretical — they’re already influencing real decisions,” said Samir Shah, CEO of CareScout.
“The data helps put those costs into context and underscore why starting to plan earlier can make a meaningful difference before care becomes urgent.”
The takeaway for Arizona families is straightforward, even if acting on it is not: where you live, when you plan, and whether you account for the actual cost of care in your region can matter as much as how much you save. Families that understand this now retain far more options than those who find out later.
