Greater Phoenix pending home sales fell 40.1% year over year in September, according to Phoenix REALTORS data, while the inventory of homes for sale climbed 6.7%. For buyers, that means more choice. For brokerages, fewer sales may mean less income. Brokers need to check their own sales and agent numbers to see how this affects their teams.
A slowdown like this hits brokerages from three directions at once. Agents may close fewer deals, other firms may try to hire your best people and old hiring methods may bring in agents who need more help than your team can give.
The brokerages that come out of this period strongest are likely to be the ones that stop chasing headcount and start recruiting fewer, better-fit agents. Here is what the current numbers mean for brokers and how recruiting can adjust.
What the September Numbers Mean for Brokerages
Phoenix REALTORS reported fewer September sales, though sales through September were still up 2.9% from last year. Closed sales of single-family homes were down 4.9% from last year, and the median sales price slipped to $475,000. Months of supply rose to 4.3, up from 4.0 a year earlier, and the housing affordability index dropped to 72, meaning the median household earned only 72% of the income needed to qualify for a median-priced home.
The slowdown is sharper locally than nationally. Zillow’s September market report puts Phoenix metro existing-home sales down 5.1% from last year and U.S. sales down 2.5%. These early estimates may change.
For a brokerage, these numbers translate into a simple equation. Fewer sales can put pressure on agent pay. But each agent’s income depends on how many deals they close and what they earn. The affordability pressures cooling the Phoenix housing market affect buyers first, but they reach agent income, and then brokerage revenue, soon after.
Why Volume Hiring Stops Working in a Slower Market
When the market is hot, adding agents usually adds deals. Leads are plentiful, transactions move quickly, and even newer agents can close enough business to cover their share of overhead.
A cooler market changes that math. Each new agent still adds onboarding time, desk costs, technology fees, and management attention, but there are fewer deals to go around. Part-time or less active agents tend to struggle most when transactions take longer and buyers hesitate.
There is also a retention risk on the other side. When income dips, productive agents start listening to offers from competing brokerages. A brokerage focused only on adding names to its roster can end up losing the agents who were carrying its production.
The shift brokers need to make is from asking how many agents they have to asking which agents they have.
What Phoenix Brokerages Should Prioritize Now
Brokers need agents who can find clients and close deals in this market. Focus on these four things when choosing who to bring onto your team.
Productivity Over Headcount
The strongest recruiting targets in a slow market are agents with a steady record of closed transactions over the past 12 months. Consistent production during a soft stretch shows an agent can generate business without relying on a hot market to do the work.
Market-fit Skills
Today’s Phoenix transactions call for skills that mattered less a few years ago. Phoenix REALTORS’ board president has pointed to seller concessions as a useful tool on both sides of the deal, whether buyers use them to buy down their rate or sellers use them to stay competitive. Agents who can structure concessions well and compete against new construction are especially valuable right now.
Submarket Knowledge
The Valley is not moving as one market. In September, closed sales rose 2.2% in Scottsdale but fell 12.5% in Gilbert and 17.3% in Avondale. Agents who understand the pricing, buyer profiles, and inventory of specific submarkets can guide clients through conditions that vary from one city to the next.
Cultural and Model Fit
An experienced producer and a newer agent need different things from a brokerage. Matching training, support, and split structure to each agent’s stage improves the odds that a recruit stays and performs.
Recruiting Tactics That Work When the Market Slows
Top producers rarely answer job postings, so waiting for applications tends to miss them. In a slower market, recruiting works better when it starts with data and moves through direct contact.
Build a target list from transaction data: Agent sales histories show who has closed consistently in the submarkets a brokerage wants to grow in. That gives recruiters a focused list instead of a broad one.
Reach proven agents directly: Productive agents who feel underserved by their current brokerage during a slowdown are often open to a conversation, even if they are not actively looking. Rather than waiting for applications, CallingAgency can run realtor recruiting as a structured outbound effort, calling experienced agents directly and booking conversations with the ones who fit.
Lead with the support that matters now: Commission splits still matter, but agents in a cooler market care about practical help: lead generation, training on concessions and financing options, and marketing that holds up through longer listing periods.
Track recruiting like a sales pipeline: Measuring contacts, conversations, meetings, and joins shows where the process stalls and which outreach brings in agents who actually produce.
Retention Is Part of the Recruiting Plan
Losing a strong agent can leave a gap in sales. Finding someone who can fill that gap may take time, money and support. That makes retention one of the most cost-effective recruiting strategies a brokerage has.
Brokers can start by checking in with top producers before competitors do. A direct conversation about workload, support, and goals often surfaces problems early enough to fix them.
Brokerages can also give agents tools that help them close in this market, such as guidance on concession strategy, comparisons against new construction, and talking points for rate buydown conversations. Agents who feel equipped to win deals are less likely to look elsewhere.
Positioning for the Next Upturn
Fewer Phoenix sales may leave agents with fewer deals to close. Brokers need to hire people who fit their team and can bring in business. Brokerages that focus on productive, market-fit agents and protect the producers they already have will carry less dead weight through the slowdown.
They will also be better placed when activity returns. If mortgage rates ease, buyers and sellers are likely to come back to the market. When that happens, the brokerages with the right agents already on board will be the first to benefit.
Conclusion
Phoenix brokers should hire agents who know their local market and can bring in business. Give them the tools and support to help buyers and sellers close deals. Keep talking with your current agents too. Fix problems early and help them grow, so they have good reasons to stay.
