The Arizona Diamondbacks began the 2025 season with promise, but as June unfolds, they’ve found themselves stalled. With a 27-29 record as of May 30, they sit in fourth place in the NL West, trailing the division-leading Dodgers by seven games and five back of the final National League Wild Card slot.
A disheartening home series loss to the lowly Pirates, punctuated by a stretch where Pittsburgh scored nineteen unanswered runs, crystallized Arizona’s current struggles. The question is whether this team can right the ship and claw its way back into postseason contention.
Hope and Reality Converge
Some fans point to last year’s midseason turnaround as a beacon of hope. In 2024, the D-backs sat two games worse at this point and were mired in a losing streak. They followed that slump with a 33-19 surge.
Arizona’s early schedule has been grueling, among the toughest in MLB, but the road ahead looks more forgiving. Tankathon ranks their remaining slate as the third-easiest in baseball. That said, their uninspiring 10-8 record against sub-.500 teams like the Rockies and Pirates suggest this club’s issues run deeper than just opponent quality.
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The Offense Isn’t the Issue—Until It Is
Statistically, Arizona’s offense has held up better than expected despite losing key bats like Christian Walker and Joc Pederson. Team OPS is nearly unchanged from last year, sitting at 114. However, the scoring output tells a different story.
The D-backs have dropped from 5.47 to 4.97 runs per game. The culprit? A dramatic collapse in production with runners in scoring position. In 2024, Arizona led MLB with a scorching .852 OPS with RISP. In 2025, that figure has cratered to .687, ranking 21st. The team’s BABIP in those moments, just .249 suggests some bad luck, but also poor execution. It’s no surprise that Diamondbacks game odds have become increasingly volatile as a result.
Personnel options are limited. Jordan Lawlar has been sent back to Reno, replaced by utility man Ildemaro Vargas, though that swap is unlikely to move the needle. Alek Thomas has been ice-cold, posting just a .479 OPS over the past three weeks.
A shift involving Corbin Carroll to center and more playing time for Randall Grichuk could help, but such changes are more about rearranging deck chairs than upgrading the vessel. And with no big bats expected at the trade deadline, internal improvement is the only realistic hope.
Rotation: Top-Heavy and Troubled
The Diamondbacks’ rotation has been underwhelming relative to expectations. Corbin Burnes has delivered as an ace, with a 2.66 ERA. Merrill Kelly (3.43 ERA) and Brandon Pfaadt (5.51 ERA, but 7 wins) have offered decent support. However, the rotation’s Achilles’ heel has been Zac Gallen and Eduardo Rodriguez, who’ve combined for an ERA north of 6.00 across 21 starts. Rodriguez in particular, has been a lightning rod for criticism, though his peripheral stats (4.28 FIP) tell a different story. That’s close to Burnes’ own FIP, suggesting bad luck or defensive failings may be inflating E-Rod’s ugly 7.05 ERA.
Still, relying on positive regression can be like chasing Fool’s Gold. The 2024 Diamondbacks hoped for the same with Jordan Montgomery, only to watch his performance sputter. Contract considerations complicate any bullpen shift for Rodriguez—he’s still owed $40 million after this season, and no club wants to pay that for a reliever. Oddly enough, Gallen might be more expendable. His FIP is worse than Rodriguez’s, and he’s set to hit free agency. Since returning from injury in mid-2024, his 4.64 ERA across 29 starts has been thoroughly pedestrian.
Bullpen in Freefall
If there’s one area dragging this team down more than any other, it’s the bullpen. May was historically bad—Arizona’s relief corps posted a 6.75 ERA and a 2-7 record. It’s their worst bullpen month since 2010, a stretch that contributed to A.J. Hinch’s firing as manager. For comparison, even the Dodgers have more blown saves (12 vs. Arizona’s 11), but L.A. holds a significant advantage in holds (43 to 30), highlighting better middle-inning support.
According to FanDuel’s MLB stats and trends, bullpen performance has been a key differentiator among playoff contenders this season.
This is the area where GM Mike Hazen is most likely to act before the trade deadline. Arizona struck gold in 2023 with Paul Sewald, but reliever volatility makes that strategy risky. Sewald, after all, owns a sub-3.00 ERA from 2021–2023 but a 5.55 ERA outside that window. It’s also noteworthy that last year’s Dylan Floro experiment flamed out spectacularly.
Fixing the bullpen might require surrendering valuable prospects. Financial flexibility is limited, especially with Montgomery’s entire $22.5 million contract still on the books despite his Tommy John surgery.
Mounting Pressure Behind the Scenes
On-field struggles are putting the spotlight on the coaching staff and front office, and pitching coach Brian Kaplan may be on the thinnest of ice. Fans will also note that despite the addition of Burnes, the team’s ERA+ has dropped to 89, two points worse than in 2024, when Brent Strom was dismissed. Bullpen coach Wellington Cepeda may also be under scrutiny.
As for manager Torey Lovullo, he continues to draw criticism from frustrated fans, some of it warranted, much of it not. His defenders note that execution often fails more than decision-making, and the front office appears to agree. Hazen recently expressed support, emphasizing shared responsibility and defending Lovullo’s tactical decisions. Still, the leash may shorten if results don’t improve.
If Arizona finishes with a worse record than last year despite its highest-ever payroll, ownership may not wait long to chart a new course.
What Comes Next?
Despite a shaky 27-29 start, the Diamondbacks aren’t buried yet. After a four-game win streak brought them back to .500 at 31-31, they remain just six games out in the division. With a soft upcoming schedule, especially against teams like the Rockies and Nationals, there’s an opportunity to build momentum. But time is tightening, and the margin for error is shrinking.
The 2025 Diamondbacks don’t need miracles, they need execution. Better at-bats with runners on, rebound performances from Gallen and Rodriguez, and at least one reliable bullpen arm could change the season’s trajectory. If those adjustments don’t come quickly, what once looked like a playoff-caliber roster may finish the season as an expensive indulgence.
