As the U.S. continues to make progress with the vaccination rollout, the attention is now turning to how quickly we can recover from the pandemic and return to something resembling economic normality. Research by TOP Data indicates that some states are fairing much better than others, with the Pandemic Recovery Index revealing that Vermont is recovering best overall, with major states like New York and California struggling in comparison.
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We compared 48 states across 23 key indicators to determine the states that are leading the way in pandemic recovery. The data set considers a depth of topics, ranging from the number of visits to bars to social distancing rate, all the way through to the number of businesses being created during the pandemic. Read on for our findings, additional insights, and a full description of our methodology.
Pandemic Recovery Index
Methodology
In order to determine how states are recovering from the pandemic, TOP Data compared the 48 states across three key dimensions for pandemic recovery:
1. Consumer Confidence
2. Job Market Strength
3. COVID-19 Safety
We evaluated those dimensions using 23 relevant metrics, which are listed below with their corresponding weights. Each metric was graded on a 100 point scale, with a score of 100 being the max.
Finally, we determined each state’s weighted average across all metrics to calculate its overall score and used the resulting scores to rank-order our sample.
Consumer Confidence (50 Points)
Visits to Sit-down Restaurants: Full Weight (5 Points)
Note: This metric measures the ratio of visits to casual dining restaurants in April 2021 compared to pre-pandemic figures.
Visits to Bars: Half Weight (2.5 Points)
Note: This metric measures the ratio of visits to bars, lounge bars, pubs, sports bars, and wine bars in April 2021 compared to pre-pandemic figures.
Visits to Bus Stations: Half Weight (2.5 Points)
Note: This metric measures the ratio of visits to bus stations in April 2021 compared to pre-pandemic figures.
Visits to Airports: Full Weight (5 Points)
Note: This metric measures the ratio of visits to airports in April 2021 compared to pre-pandemic figures.
Visits to Malls: Full Weight (5 Points)
Note: This metric measures the ratio of visits to Malls in April 2021 compared to pre-pandemic figures.
Visits to General Retail: Full Weight (5 Points)
Note: This metric measures the ratio of the number of visits to Big Box, Convenience Stores, Department Stores, Gas Stations, Grocery Stores, and Home Improvement stores in April 2021 compared to pre-pandemic figures.
Visits to Car Dealerships: Full Weight (5 Points)
Note: This metric measures the ratio of visits to car dealerships in April 2021 compared to pre-pandemic figures.
Visits to Hotels: Half Weight (2.5 Points)
Note: This metric measures the ratio of the number of visits to hotels and resorts in April 2021 compared to pre-pandemic figures.
Visits to Movie Theaters: Half Weight (2.5 Points)
Note: This metric measures the ratio of the number of visits to movie theaters in April 2021 compared to pre-pandemic figures.
Visits to Personal Care Services: Full Weight (5 Points)
Note: This metric measures the ratio of the number of visits to beauty salons and diet and weight reducing centers in April 2021 compared to pre-pandemic figures.
Visits to Clothing and Shoe Stores: Half Weight (2.5 Points)
Note: This metric measures the ratio of the number of visits to children and infants’ clothing stores, family clothing stores, men’s clothing stores, shoe stores, and women clothing stores in April 2021 compared to pre-pandemic figures.
Visits to Passenger Car Rentals: Full Weight (5 Points)
Note: This metric measures the ratio of the number of visits to rental car facilities in April 2021 compared to pre-pandemic figures.
Visits to Amusement and Recreation: Half Weight (2.5 Points)
Note: This metric measures the ratio of the number of visits to amusement parks and recreational facilities in April 2021 compared to pre-pandemic figures.
Job Market Strength (25 Points)
Unemployment Rate: Full Weight (5 Points)
Available Jobs Per Capita: Full Weight (5 Points)
Note: This metric was calculated as follows. The total number of jobs posted in May across the three largest job board sites / 100,000 People.
Change in Employment 2021: Full Weight (5 Points)
Note: This metric measures the % change in the number of non-farm payroll jobs between February 2020 and April 2021.
Change in State GDP: Full Weight (5 Points)
Note: This metric measures the % increase in annual GDP as reported per state in Q4 2020.
Number of Business Created in 2021: Full Weight (5 Points)
Note: This metric measures the ratio of the number of businesses created in 2021 vs the number of businesses created in 2020.
COVID Safety (25 Points)
Current # of COVID-19 Cases per Capita: Full Weight (5 Points)
Note: This metric represents the 7-day case rate per 100,000 people.
Current # of COVID-19 Deaths per Capita: Full Weight (5 Points)
Note: This metric represents the 7-day death rate per 100,000 people.
Share of Fully Vaccinated Population: Full Weight (5 Points)
Note: This metric represents the percentage of the total population that is fully vaccinated.
Social Distancing Rate: Full Weight (5 Points)
Note: This metric represents the ratio of the number of daily close interactions with members outside of their household in May 2021 vs pre-pandemic figures.
Stress Levels: Full Weight (5 Points)
Note: This metric measured the percentage of adults aged 18 and older who reported being highly stressed.
