President Donald Trump’s tariffs on goods from the United States’ top trading partners – Canada, Mexico and China – went into effect Tuesday. But by Wednesday, some were already delayed. China and Canada swiftly announced retaliatory measures, including tariffs of up to 25% and potential restrictions on American products. Arizona farmers are bracing for increased financial stress because of tariffs as key agricultural imports, such as fertilizers, pesticides and machinery, become more expensive, while exported goods and crops potentially face higher taxes.
If the situation remains unchanged, U.S. farm income will continue to decline, making American agriculture less competitive globally due to rising costs, said George Frisvold, a professor of agricultural and resource economics at the University of Arizona.
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“If it stays that way, U.S. farm income is just getting lower,” Frisvold said. “It’s going to make U.S. agriculture less competitive in world markets, because their costs are going to go up.”
In an address Tuesday, Trump told Congress, “now it’s our turn” to tax other countries that have been taking advantage of the U.S.
“Tariffs are about making America rich again and making America great again,” Trump said. “There will be a little disturbance, but we are OK with that.”
Trump’s tariffs were supposed to go into effect in early February but were delayed. A change Wednesday came after three of the largest U.S. automakers requested an exemption “so they are not at an economic disadvantage.” Trump edited the tariff agreements to exempt vehicles coming into the U.S. from Mexico and Canada for one month, but other levies will continue.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Fox News that Trump would “work something out” long term with Canada and Mexico. “There’s not going to be a pause … somewhere in the middle will likely be the outcome,” Lutnick said.
In a press briefing Tuesday, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said her government would disclose its countermeasures Sunday.
China announced tariffs on U.S. exports at rates of 10% and 15%, which took effect on Feb. 10, according to the Tax Foundation, a nonpartisan tax research entity.
“If war is what the U.S. wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we’re ready to fight till the end,” the Chinese embassy in the U.S. said in a post on X.
Tariffs are taxes imposed on foreign-made goods, but the cost can be passed on to consumers. Arizona farmers now find themselves caught in the middle, facing yet another hurdle to feeding the country.
U.S. exports of oil, large vehicles and agricultural machinery will face a 10% tariff from China. The country will also impose 15% tariffs on chicken, wheat, corn and cotton, as well as a 10% tariff on pork, beef, dairy, fruits, sorghum, soybeans, vegetables and fish products.
Some family ranches in Arizona have thrived for decades. Cassy England is a fourth generation farmer at Sierra Farming, where they grow cotton. The ranch is among about 200 others who grow the crop in Arizona, according to the Arizona Farm Bureau.
“Our cotton is mainly exported, and the price is already not in a good position. If that gets any worse, that could be devastating for all of us,” England said, noting farming is not just about producing food and goods but preserving a way of life. “It’s a lot scarier to see the changes that are happening. … We all stay positive, but it’s definitely going to be challenging.”
Farmers will feel the financial strain on both ends as resources like fertilizer, farm equipment and repairs become more expensive and the goods they intend to produce may not yield the same income.
About 90% of U.S. fertilizers are imported, with the majority from Canada, according to Farm Doc Daily, a research-based publication on agricultural economics. A 25% tariff on Canadian goods could increase prices by over $100 per ton.
“I am currently concerned on fertilizer prices. I know that’s something we import,”England said. “I worry that the tariffs associated with Canada and Mexico are going to impact that for us. Prices have already increased since COVID tremendously for fertilizers. So any increase in fertilizer cost would be very bad for our budgets,” England said.
She also expressed fear over farm machinery costs, admitting how her panic has grown as prices rise.
“It’s a huge commitment to be able to purchase certain types of equipment right now,” England said. “That’s kind of a scary thing to go through. Before, it was a thought, but now it’s more in the forefront because just so much more of your budget goes towards that item.”
Frisvold, the UA professor, noted that tariffs can lead to inflation, higher borrowing costs and reduced farm income, which could make U.S. agriculture less competitive globally.
“When tariffs were imposed in the first Trump administration, virtually all the costs of the tariffs were passed on to U.S. consumers and U.S. businesses,” Frisvold said. “A lot of farmers are operating on pretty small margins. They don’t really control the price of what they’re getting.”
In a 2025 projection released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture prior to the escalation of the tariff war, farm profits were expected to rise, primarily driven by government aid rather than lower costs or higher crop prices.
In December, Congress enacted the American Relief Act, extending 2018 actions allowing producers to access programs like crop insurance and other agricultural financial subsidies. The act provided “one-time aid, including $21 billion to compensate farmers and ranchers for natural disaster losses sustained in 2023 and 2024, $10 billion to support struggling producers facing economic hardship and $2.5 billion for USDA-administered programs,” according to the American Farm Bureau Federation.
These safety nets provide short-term stability but do little to build sustainable income or alleviate new trade threats, Frisvold said.
On Monday, Trump addressed farmers on his social media platform, Truth Social.
“To the Great Farmers of the United States: Get ready to start making a lot of agricultural product to be sold INSIDE of the United States,” Trump said. “Tariffs will go on external product on April 2nd. Have fun!”
“April 2, reciprocal tariffs kick in,” Trump said in his address to Congress. “Whatever they tariff us, other countries, we will tariff them. … Just bear with me ”
Exports fuel farmers’ profits. U.S. agricultural export revenue has gradually increased over the past 25 years and has grown to surpass domestic demand for many products. According to the USDA, this revenue hit a high of $174 billion in 2023.
In his congressional address, Trump said new tariffs would protect American farmers by making foreign agricultural products more expensive and encouraging local sales. Trump suggested that imported agricultural goods are not properly inspected and could be of poor quality, which he said harms American farmers by creating unfair competition.
U.S. farmers have been here before. During Trump’s first term, a tariff war between the U.S. and China affected billions of dollars worth of products. At the time, Trump targeted technology and machinery, and China struck back with tariffs on agricultural goods and metals. This led to a period of relatively stagnant net farm income during his presidency.
Philip Bashaw, Arizona Farm Bureau CEO and executive secretary, discussed how these disputes leave farmers to bear the financial strain.
“When it comes to tariffs, the agriculture industry typically bears the brunt of retaliatory tariffs,” Bashaw said. “I feel deeply connected with the agriculture industry in our state. I know a lot of people, they’re really good business owners, that are going to be impacted by this.
“There’s a lot of uncertainty out there, but we continue to be hopeful that the administration can limit some of the disruptions that could impact the agriculture industry,” Bashaw said. “We do worry about input costs, particularly for an industry that has such small margins. However, we also believe that ensuring fair trade is extremely important. We hope that in the end it will provide better off, greater opportunities for … Arizona’s agricultural products to be sold worldwide.”
