Temps are heating up in Arizona and seasonal slowdown for the residential real estate market is on the horizon for 2024 Q3. But is it really? Monie Wilder, west coast regional vice president of the Jason Mitchell Group says that’s not the real story. She shares her insights and offers her predictions for the state of the market this summer:
MORE NEWS: Phoenix ranks No. 3 for increase in number of newly listed homes
• Despite supply being up 44% from last year, the market experienced a new all-time high in average price per square foot at $308 in April 2024.
• Over the last two-plus years of higher interest rates, the market hasn’t experienced the drop in prices many are holding their breaths for. This is because there is still slightly more demand than supply.
• “In watching these two indicators, we see that as long as supply stays less than demand, prices hold or may even rise,” Wilder says. “Being out in the field I am seeing it play out like this. More and more, the sellers that are selling really need to sell; if they didn’t, they wouldn’t give up their juicy low interest rates. They are pricing their homes according to the market—not hopes and fairy dust—and getting sold.”
• On the other hand, those she calls “tire kicker sellers” are pulling their houses off the market when it’s clear their unrealistic price isn’t happening because times have changed since 2021.
• “That’s why we see more canceled listings right now,” she says, adding, “Sellers who aren’t willing to sell at market value are taking their balls and going home, leaving the more serious sellers to make deals with the available buyer pool.”
• On the flip side, the buyers who are buying need to buy. They are realizing that waiting out the interest rates isn’t “a thing” and instead are finding ways to make purchasing affordable (typically using seller concessions for rate buy downs). “The result of this is still an overall seller’s market, but it’s pretty weak,” she says. “In some cities, it’s actually a buyer’s market and in many it’s balanced.”
• Looking forward Wilder says, if interest rates stay about where they are, supply will likely continue to slowly rise bringing a net balance across most cities and towns.
• She advises sellers to get their homes on the market ASAP if they want to sell; and she tells buyers that now is the time to shop.
Wilder is a Top 40 Under 40 Realtor who has sold more than 700 homes sold in just seven years. She uses her unique approach to real estate to get the maximum satisfaction for her clients and to help other agents grow. She has been featured on NPR and in Bloomberg Magazine and is well-versed in media interviews.
