Recent years have brought numerous big deals and billions of dollars in investment to the Valley. That growth has come with challenges, such as concerns over water supplies, rising construction costs and the need for more power. But another issue affecting development is getting more attention — air quality in Metro Phoenix. During Willmeng Construction’s Fence Post Speaker Series event on Oct. 30, James Murphy, CEO of Willmeng Construction, notes that a slew of major deals that will impact the state for generations were completed under moderate nonattainment, but Maricopa County will soon pass into a higher level of nonattainment.

A “nonattainment area” is a geographic area where air quality standards, known as National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS), are not being met for one or more criteria pollutants like ozone, particulate matter, lead, carbon monoxide, sulfur oxides, and nitrogen oxides. 

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The Clean Air Act outlines air quality standards across the nation, and the Valley has been in moderate nonattainment for some time. According to Eric Massey, director of sustainability for APS, the Valley is expected to enter serious nonattainment in early 2025, which affects permitting for certain industrial projects.  

“There is reason for hope,” Massey explains. “The standard [under the Clean Air Act] has changed over time. Back around the turn of the century, we had a lot of nonattainment issues. The long and the short of it is that we solved this problem before. It takes collaboration, but we can do it again.” 

A look at Phoenix air quality

Looking across the country, urban centers, including Denver, Salt Lake City and Las Vegas all struggle with nonattainment. But what exactly pushes an area into that classification? Massey explains that when discussing ozone, it refers to an atmospheric chemical reaction that combines three oxygen molecules together.  

“Ozone at the stratospheric level is good because it protects us from ultraviolet rays,” he continues. “But at the ground level, it’s bad for public health issues. Ozone forms from what we call volatile organic compounds — such as gasoline when it evaporates — mixed with oxidized nitrogen, called NOx, which is usually a product of combustion from engines or powerplants. When combined with sunlight and heat, there’s a complex reaction that forms ozone.”  

Another crucial aspect of what teeters a region into nonattainment has to do with the classification of the pollution. Standards are tied to what’s called PM2.5, which refers to particulate pollution that is 2.5 microns or smaller. For context, 2.5 microns is somewhere between 20 and 30 times smaller than a human hair.  

“[Air quality] is a public health issue because we’re all obligated to breathe,” Massey says. “These pollutants can damage airways, make chronic conditions such as COPD and asthma worse, and in the case of PM2.5, the particulates are small enough to pass through your lungs and enter your bloodstream, potentially creating cardiovascular challenges or even death.”  

The good news is that the Clean Air Act has been exceptionally successful in reducing air pollution across the nation. Massey notes that during the last four decades, emissions have been reduced upwards of 70% as the economy has expanded by 300% — all while the population has continued to grow.  

Complicating the problem is that there are some peculiarities about Arizona, both geographical and historical. Danny Seiden, president and CEO of the Arizona Chamber of Commerce & Industry, explains that the state is relatively new to manufacturing, meaning there are fewer facilities producing high levels of emissions that can be modernized — something other states can do to meet pollution targets.   

“We’re not an old school industrial state. We’ve been using good, efficient equipment, yet we keep finding ourselves with attainment problems,” he continues. “We don’t control the pollution [that blows into Arizona from outside its borders] — 80% comes from somewhere else. So, in a way, we’re being punished for things out of our control, and that’s why we at the chamber have done everything from litigation to sitting in the White House to solve these problems.” 

Seiden and others met with then-U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo to discuss how Arizona is solving its air quality issues, including accounting for pollution that is created in other states and countries but ends up here due to wind patterns.  

“Arizona is doing the right things, and we want to make sure we’re rewarded for that,” Seiden says. “The government at all levels wants to work with the industry to solve this problem and see Arizona be successful.”  

Impact of serious nonattainment 

When it comes to how air quality issues will affect development moving forward, Christine Mackay, community and economic development director for the City of Phoenix, notes that it’s already hard for companies to get air quality permits under moderate nonattainment. When the Valley enters into serious nonattainment in early 2025, Mackay says it’s the smaller business that will be most affected.  

“Big companies can take care of themselves. They have people working on getting [air quality] credits,” she continues. “I’m not saying we won’t help them — we absolutely will — but our small and medium manufacturers are going to be shocked the next time they go for an air quality permit and they can’t get one. We’ve worked diligently for so long to create an Arizona with a thought-leading knowledge economy, and it’s going to get snatched away from us if we can’t fix this quickly.”  

Sandra Watson, president and CEO of the Arizona Commerce Authority (ACA), notes that the ACA has been speaking about Metro Phoenix air quality issues with clients for the past few years. When having conversations around where a company may locate, she says that the ACA asks about their emission levels to help them locate in the appropriate place.  

“Out of the 460 or so projects we’re currently working on, about 70% of them are in the advanced manufacturing sector,” Watson continues. “We’ve targeted about 19 of them that are at risk [due to the Valley passing into serious nonattainment.] Not all hope is lost — we know what those projects are and what we need to do. Companies are now looking at new equipment to reduce emissions and we’re talking to them about credits.”  

Companies can receive credits towards their air quality permits based off of steps they take to reduce emissions. Mackay gives the example of Sky Harbor International Airport, which recently worked with a group to switch its baggage tugs from gas powered to electric, reducing overall emissions and earning credits.  

“Like I said earlier, it’s not the big companies that I’m worried about,” she concludes. “What keeps me up at night are the small- and medium-sized businesses that want to expand or renew their air quality permit. They don’t know how to find me [or other economic development organizations.] They may just say, ‘Wow, we can’t expand or get a permit, so we’re going to have to close.’ That’s why we need to be educating and working together with these companies to help them, so they don’t move somewhere else.”