First-time buyers today need a year longer to save for a 20% downpayment than they did five years ago, a new Zillow analysis shows. And with starter home prices growing almost seven times faster than renter incomes, it almost certainly will take even longer for today’s renters to save up for tomorrow’s homes.

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If an average renter household saves 10% of its income, it would take about six years and five months to save enough for a 20% down payment on today’s typical starter home, worth about $148,500. That’s a full year longer than it would have taken in 2016. Zillow forecasts 14.9% home value growth over the next year, which would mean renters need to save an additional $369 per month just to keep up with appreciation.

In the Phoenix metro:

• The typical starter home — the median home in the bottom third of home prices — is worth $270,560.

• It would take an average renter household saving 10% of its income 10.6 years to save for a 20% downpayment on that starter home. That’s 3.3 years longer than it would have taken five years ago.

• With a 20% downpayment and a 3% mortgage rate, the monthly mortgage payment on that starter home would be $1,133. With a 10% down payment, it would be $1,481 — still only 29.6% of the typical renter income.

While these numbers are daunting, most first-time buyerswho want to save for a downpayment put down less than 20% and today’s low mortgage rates are helping keep monthly payments relatively affordable even with a smaller down payment. The new freedom for many to work remotely and live anywhere as part of the Great Reshuffling may also help renters move into homeownership, as renters in high-cost areas can more easily save for a home in a less expensive locale.