According to Thompson Thrift, during the first quarter of 2024, the Phoenix market had 4.5 million square feet of net absorption, representing a double-digit increase over 2023, which should make for a spirited discussion at the AZRE Forum, which offers a mid-year analysis of market conditions and market opportunities in commercial real estate.
The AZRE Forum takes place Thursday, Aug 8. Get your AZRE Forum tickets here.
MORE NEWS: AZRE’s Most Influential Women in Commercial Real Estate for 2024
“While national industrial numbers continue to show a cool down after record growth coming out of the pandemic, Phoenix’s diversified economy, affordability relative to other larger cities in the Southwest and business-friendly regulation have allowed it to remain one of the strongest markets for population and job growth and one of the top-performing industrial markets in the nation,” says Ashlee Boyd, managing partner for Thompson Thrift,.
While commercial real estate in Arizona is on a hot steak, how long can it last? Are we risking over supply? Will power availability tamp down the ability to deliver projects? Can economic developers still attract companies despite concerns over water? Can the Valley continue to build enough housing as more people and companies continue to move to Arizona?
“The AZRE Forum, our annual mid-year commercial real estate update and forecast, will answer those questions,” says Amy Lindsey, publisher of AZ Big Media, which produces AZRE magazine. “Our panels of experts represent some of the brightest minds in the industry whose insights will leave you better informed about the most pressing issues in commercial real estate today.”
AZRE magazine will host the annual AZRE Forum on Aug. 8, 2024, bringing together Arizona’s most brilliant and informed commercial real estate minds for panel discussions covering all things commercial real estate. To get tickets or to learn more, click here.
AZRE Forum moderators and panelists
The AZRE Forum moderators and panelists include (in alphabetical order):
Ryan Abbott, Southwest region president, Clayco
Phil Breidenbach, senior executive vice president, Colliers
Earl Collins, CEO, Cordia
Brian Cousins, senior vice president of commercial real estate, Arizona Bank & Trust
Jeff Dalton, vice president of pre-construction, FCL Builders
Benjamin Gottlieb, founding partner, Gottlieb Law, PLC
Alex Hancock, senior vice president of national sales & leasing, Howard Hughes
John Orsak, senior vice president, Lincoln
Jennifer Stein, director of economic development services department, City of Peoria
Marti Weinstein, partner, Diversified Partners
Meet the AZRE Forum panelists
Ryan Abbott, president, Southwest region, Clayco
BACKGROUND: With more than two decades of experience, Abbott is a modern construction leader, builder, national lecturer and educator on alternative project delivery methods. He embraces Integrated Project Delivery and Lean concepts, and his talent for understanding complex, highly technical, large-scale projects has been demonstrated on jobs which have collectively netted 57 awards for excellence. Abbott is responsible for managing the regional team and the success of local projects.
INSPIRATION: “Over the last quarter century, I have come to a modest truth. I found that when I focused on the success of our clients, on the success of our community, when I devoted every ounce of energy to solving the challenge of your project, the world would change.”
IMPORTANCE OF AZRE FORUM: “Having direct access to the frontlines of Arizona real estate. In a world of sensational headlines, instantaneous publishing, single-click purchasing and an exponential rate of change… where do you find your source of truth?”
TREND TO WATCH: “Market cycle amplitude is explosively stretching, at the exact time the cycle period is compressing. To adapt Megginson’s teaching of Darwin: It’s not the most intellectual solution; it’s not the strongest balance sheet; today, it’s the team that is best able to quickly adapt and adjust to the change that moves forward.”
SOURCE OF PRIDE: “Being a part of the evolutionary advancement of the design-build industry with a team that is creating harder working, longer lasting, more technologically advanced sustainable built infrastructure.”
LEARN MORE: claycorp.com
Phil Breidenbach, senior executive vice president, Colliers
BACKGROUND: Breidenbach specializes in commercial office properties, representing both landlords and tenants. He focuses on life-of-the-asset landlord agency, tenant advocacy, corporate solutions, acquisitions and dispositions. Breidenbach has specialized in commercial real estate since joining Colliers in 1984.
IMPORTANCE OF AZRE FORUM: “Mindshare makes all of us better. We all benefit when our industry’s brightest have a chance to gather, exchange best practices, share ideas and experiences, and opine on the market with their visions about what the future may bring. We’re grateful to AZRE for hosting this program that brings together so many smart people who generously contribute their time and shared wisdom.”
TREND TO WATCH: “As of the time of this writing, nine significant Valley companies are in the process of securing new office space and re-imagining their corporate headquarters. These organizations all seem to share the same driver: Creating an environment that makes their workforce want to come in every day and thrive together. The outcome of these companies’ efforts and their success stories will ‘turbocharge’ the back-to-office trend we are starting to feel. We are excited to see what the next generation of workspaces looks like and what the future brings for the buildings that house corporate America.”
SOURCE OF PRIDE: “Watching our clients and friends prosper, and knowing our team played a part in that prosperity is a real thrill. Nothing can replace the feeling of walking into a company’s new facility for the first time and witnessing expressions on the faces of the executives and the workforce alike — the excitement, the joy and sense of newfound inspiration is really fun to watch. It is like having a front row seat to Christmas morning.”
LEARN MORE: colliers.com
Earl Collins , CEO, Cordia
BACKGROUND: Collins has served as CEO of Cordia since July 2022. Based in Phoenix, Collins oversees Cordia’s operations from its corporate headquarters, a strategic move catalyzed by the company’s rebranding post a monumental $1.9 billion acquisition by KKR in October 2022. He brings a wealth of experience to his current position, having worked in various capacities across engineering, construction, operations and maintenance for the power, industrial and renewable energy sectors.
IMPORTANCE OF AZRE FORUM: “The AZRE Forum is a unique opportunity to connect with Arizona’s leading commercial real estate minds and gain insights into the industry’s growth trends. As Arizona’s commercial landscape expands, district energy has the potential to play a major role in ensuring sustainable and efficient development. By attending the AZRE Forum, my hope is that Cordia can be at the forefront of these discussions and forge key relationships that will shape the future of our industry.”
TREND TO WATCH: “The integration of district energy systems and renewable energy sources is a rising trend to watch in commercial real estate. District energy systems provide reliable and efficient heating and cooling by sharing resources across multiple buildings. When coupled with renewable energy sources like solar or wind power, these systems can significantly reduce a building’s environmental footprint and operating costs. We expect to see growing adoption of these technologies as tenants prioritize sustainability and cost-effectiveness.”
LEARN MORE: cordiaenergy.com
Brian Cousins, senior vice president, commercial real estate, Arizona Bank & Trust
BACKGROUND: For over two decades, Cousins has been committed to thoroughly comprehending each client’s banking needs and leveraging our bank’s competencies to deliver exemplary service. His expertise includes real estate economics, commercial real estate and working with investors and real estate professionals on complex real estate projects. He is steadfast in ensuring exceptional customer service and upholding the core values of community banking. In addition to his professional endeavors, Cousins is an active board of directors member for Elevate Phoenix, a non-profit organization that delivers complimentary programs to schools. Elevate Phoenix fosters enduring connections with urban students by deploying full-time teacher mentors, establishing a supportive framework to develop life plans and ensuring accountability for positive change.
IMPORTANCE OF AZRE FORUM: “Events like the AZRE Forum are an excellent way to stay current on the latest commercial real estate (CRE) topics. Additionally, they provide a great opportunity to network, learn and stay relevant in CRE’s fast-paced and ever-changing world. In the digital age, events like these offer the best way to continue having human interaction and to develop lifelong, meaningful connections.”
TREND TO WATCH: “Rate, rates, rates. Rates have become more important than location, location, location heading into 2025. Regardless of rate fluctuations, there will be significant opportunities in commercial real estate as always.”
SOURCE OF PRIDE: “Observing people’s dreams materialize in their projects is truly inspiring. Being involved in commercial real estate, I’ve come to appreciate the immense dedication and effort entrepreneurs and developers pour into their work. Witnessing their success and knowing that I’ve contributed to their achievements is incredibly fulfilling and motivates me every single day.”
LEARN MORE: arizbank.com
Jeff Dalton, vice president of pre-construction, FCL Builders
BACKGROUND: Dalton has more than 30 years of industry experience, starting as a project engineer in Portland and working on a variety of projects throughout the western U.S. — including parking garages, casinos, prisons, ski lifts and the Rose Garden for the Portland Trailblazers.
IMPORTANCE OF AZRE FORUM: “The CRE industry is a large and dynamic part of the AZ economy, and a gathering of a variety active stakeholders in the region is very valuable. Getting real information directly from those involved daily in the local market rather than a national or regional research associate provides real insight into market sentiment.”
TREND TO WATCH: “Everybody is watching interest rates and finding out that outguessing the Fed is a fool’s errand. The larger forces we see shaping the market will continue regardless of rates — although rates will impact pace. The country is shifting clearly toward on-shoring and near-shoring, which will be the key drivers of the industrial sector for the next 10 years. Spec industrial is slow now, but will pick back up as manufacturing drives distribution needs. The other big driver will be digital infrastructure driven by the wildfire-like growth of AI. Phoenix is a perfect spot for data centers and will be the leader nationwide in coming years for new data center construction — if we can meet the power demands.”
LEARN MORE: fclbuilders.com/team/phoenix
Benjamin Gottlieb, founding partner, Gottlieb Law, PLC
BACKGROUND: Gottlieb graduated with high honors from the business program at Michigan State University, and then attended the Sandra Day O’Connor School of Law at Arizona State University, where he served as the managing editor for the Arizona State Law Journal. Gottlieb is an experienced attorney who has handled hundreds of real estate, business and commercial cases. His more than 13-year legal career has been highlighted by numerous court victories and successful settlements for his clients.
IMPORTANCE OF AZRE FORUM: “It is important to keep abreast of the current state of the commercial real estate market in Arizona, which does not necessarily follow national trends due in part to people and businesses that continue to move to Arizona each year. Further, the federal reserve and federal government unleashed an unprecedented amount of stimulus into the economy in 2020 and 2021, followed by a rapid rate hike cycle to contain inflation in 2022, we are currently at an inflection point — will rates come down or stay higher for longer?”
TREND TO WATCH: “People should pay attention to interest rates, which have broad ramifications as to the commercial real estate market and could affect whether investors are able to refinance, whether loan workouts occur, or whether sales altogether might happen. If rates stay higher for longer, this could lead to more dealmaking and activity, as borrowers struggle to refinance.”
LEARN MORE: gottlieblawaz.com
Alex Hancock, senior vice president of national sales and leasing, Howard Hughes
BACKGROUND: Hancock is the senior vice president of national sales and leasing for Howard Hughes. In this capacity, Hancock is involved in all aspects of commercial growth in Teravalis, Howard Hughes’ new 37,000-acre community in the Phoenix West Valley.
IMPORTANCE OF AZRE FORUM: “Forums are important as they give those of us in commercial real estate an opportunity to get outside of our organizations and projects to hear from others in our industry about development forecasting, commercial trends, overall industry updates and what others are experiencing in the space.”
TREND TO WATCH: “A trend we have already seen take hold the last few years following the pandemic that will continue is the move for individual cities and towns to create their own urban entertainment districts utilizing commercial space. East Valley towns like Gilbert and Chandler have already achieved this, Goodyear is currently building GSQ and one day, Teravalis will have a ‘downtown’ with mixed-use commercial space so residents can enjoy an urban-city feel without having to drive to Phoenix, Scottsdale or nearer by in Avondale and Goodyear.”
SOURCE OF PRIDE: “My greatest professional accomplishments are all related to ‘wins’ that have been worked on in collaboration with our economic development and municipal partners. Working together with those regional or local teams shows the strength of the community and the power of aligned vision to grow or diversify a local economy.”
LEARN MORE: howardhughes.com
John Orsak, senior vice president, Lincoln
BACKGROUND: A 22-year veteran of the commercial real estate industry, Orsak and his team are responsible for development, acquisitions, leasing, property and project management across Arizona, Nevada and New Mexico. Orsak has been successful in developing over 13 million square feet during his time at Lincoln Property Company.
IMPORTANCE OF AZRE FORUM: “I’m a huge proponent of collaboration, and events like the AZRE Forum provide a unique platform for this. If you’ve worked in the Phoenix commercial real estate market for any length of time, you’ve witnessed its steady — sometimes dizzying — evolution. Listening and learning together builds a collective knowledge, with which we can build better projects that best speak to market demand and drive progress. That is critical to maintaining our industry’s relevance and its sustainability.”
TREND TO WATCH: “Labor is a huge factor driving commercial real estate decisions. Employees want well located, quality buildings with onsite and nearby amenities, and developers are responding. On the industrial front, this helps our tenants compete for workers and in their marketplace. On the office front, it empowers businesses to compete for labor and can actually be a make-or-break move when it comes to enticing workers back to the office. It has been our goal to develop creative solutions to solve for this factor and contribute to the evolution of our markets.”
LEARN MORE: lpc.com/office/phoenix/
Jennifer Stein, director of economic development services department, City of Peoria
BACKGROUND: Stein’s primary focus is leading a team of experts who specialize in business attraction and development, business retention and expansion. She brings more than 25 years of experience in public and private sector communications, marketing, strategic planning, management and community relations to her new economic development role in the City of Peoria.
IMPORTANCE OF AZRE FORUM: “The AZRE Forum brings together some of Arizona’s most respected and influential commercial real estate leaders to share their insights on the health of the industry. For economic developers, it’s critical to understand the market from a CRE perspective and see what’s driving development. By attending the AZRE Forum, we can expect to hear from a diverse panel of speakers sharing future market trends and expectations, and what industries are rapidly growing in Arizona.”
SOURCE OF PRIDE: “As the Economic Development Director in Peoria, I have a unique position which provides me with an opportunity to meet many people from a diversity of industries. This allows me to be a connector and collaborator. I have brought together workforce development connections with industry partners that have resulted in hiring talented residents/students while strengthening our future workforce. My position also affords me the opportunity to be at the forefront of building a city with key amenities that have been most requested by our residents.”
LEARN MORE: peoriaaz.gov
Marti Weinstein, partner, Diversified Partners
BACKGROUND: Weinstein has been instrumental in driving internal leasing efforts for new developments at Diversified Partners, serving as a dynamic team leader while nurturing and mentoring junior agents within the office. In her new role as partner, she is responsible for overseeing a majority of Diversified’s third-party leasing and sales business across numerous shopping centers throughout Arizona.
IMPORTANCE OF AZRE FORUM: “Events like the AZRE Forum are important because they provide a platform for industry professionals to exchange insights, network and stay updated on the latest trends and developments in CRE. These forums foster collaboration and innovation, helping attendees make informed decisions and drive the industry forward. They also offer opportunities for professional growth and community building, which are essential for the continued success and evolution of the sector.”
TRENDS TO WATCH: “I think there are three key trends to watch as we head into 2025 and beyond. First, the fluctuation of interest rates significantly impacts borrowing costs and investment returns, playing a crucial role in real estate financing and development decisions. Second, rising construction costs, driven by supply chain disruptions and increasing material prices, affect project feasibility and profitability. And lastly, the retail landscape is shifting towards more experience-focused concepts. Shopping center owners are increasingly filling their properties with ‘Instagrammable’ and entertainment-focused venues, catering to consumers’ desires for unique and engaging experiences. This evolution is transforming retail spaces into dynamic destinations that attract visitors and enhance customer engagement.”
LEARN MORE: dpcre.com
