The Phoenix housing market is not performing as well as the rest of the nation, according to an analysis from Eller’s Economic and Business Research Center.
Phoenix house prices declined 1.4% over the year in November based on the latest S&P Cotality Case-Shiller report, in contrast to the 1.4% gain in house prices nationally. The 20-city composite also reported an increase of 1.4% over the year in November. The highest annual gain in prices was reported in Chicago at 5.7%, followed by New York at 5.0% and Cleveland at 3.4%. Tampa continued to experience decreasing house prices, falling 3.9% over the year in November. This was the 13th month of declining house prices for Tampa. Eight other metro areas also reported year-over-year declines in house prices: Dallas, Phoenix, Denver, Miami, Portland, Las Vegas, Seattle, and Atlanta. – Valorie Rice
READ MORE: Here is the outlook for Phoenix’s 2026 housing market
LOCAL NEWS: TSMC Arizona preparing workers for a chips future
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.4% in the third quarter of 2025, according to the updated estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP rose 3.8%. Real GDP in the third quarter was revised up by 0.1 percentage points from the initial estimate, primarily reflecting upwards revisions to exports and investment that were partially offset by a downward revision to consumer spending. Real gross domestic income, an alternate measure of GDP, increased 2.4% in the third quarter. The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.4% in the third quarter, and the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 2.8%. -Delaney O’Kray-Murphy
Real GDP for the third quarter of 2025 rose in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Arizona GDP increased 4.6%, just above the national increase of 4.4%. State real GDP in the third quarter of 2025 ranged from 0.4% in North Dakota to 6.5% in Kansas. Leading contributors to growth nationally and for nearly half of all states were information; finance and insurance; and professional, scientific, and technical services. The agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting sector was the leading contributor to growth for Kansas and South Dakota, which had the second-largest increase in GDP among states. Personal income rose at an annual rate of 3.3% in the U.S. in the third quarter of 2025, with state income increases ranging from 0.1% in Louisiana to 6.3% in Kansas. Personal income in Arizona rose 3.2% during that period. -Valorie Rice
Total nonfarm employment in Arizona increased by 24,600 jobs year-over-year in December, with the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remaining at 4.3%. The U.S. seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell 0.1 percentage points to 4.4% in December. Arizona non-seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment increased 6,500 jobs in November, more than the pre-pandemic average of 5,600. Employment gains were reported in Trade, Transportation, & Utilities (5,900), Health Care and Social Assistance (2,900), Leisure & Hospitality (2,600), Financial Activities (2,000), Construction (1,200), Other Services (400), Professional & Business Services (300), Information (300), and Natural Resources & Mining (200). Employment losses were reported in Government (-7,000), Manufacturing (-1,400), and Private Educational Services (-900). -Delaney O’Kray-Murphy
In December, over the month state unemployment rates were higher in 6 states and stable in the remaining 44 and the District of Columbia. Arizona’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained unchanged over the month at 4.3%. Hawaii and South Dakota had the lowest jobless rates in December at 2.2%. The District of Columbia had the highest unemployment rate at 6.7%, followed by California and New Jersey at 5.5% and 5.4%, respectively. Twenty-one states and the District of Columbia saw unemployment rate increases over the year, the largest of which was in Delaware (+1.6 percentage points). Eight states had over-the-year rate decreases, the largest of which was in Indiana (-0.9 percentage points). -Delaney O’Kray-Murphy
Labor turnover changed little in Arizona over the month in November, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics State Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). Job openings rates decreased in seven states and changed little in all other states. Alaska (-3.9 percentage points), Wyoming (-2.7 points), and Montana (-2.0 points) reported the largest decreases in the job openings rate. The seasonally adjusted job openings rate in Arizona for November was 4.2%, down from 4.5% in October and 5.3% in September. The hires rate increased in one state, Rhode Island (1.0 percentage point), decreased in four states (including Alaska at -3.8 points and Wyoming at -1.4 points), and was little changed in all other states, including Arizona. The total separations rates were statistically higher in six states and declined in two states. Increases were noted in Idaho (1.5 percentage points), Alaska (1.4 points), and Tennessee (1.1 points), while the two states with decreases were Michigan (-1.1 points) and Indiana (-0.7 points). The Arizona total separations rate was unchanged at 3.4%. Within separations, the quits rate increased in six states and decreased in one (New York). Seven states had lower layoff and discharges rates, while they increased in one (Idaho). Note that the December report for state JOLTS coming next month will be the final monthly release as the report will transition to an annual news release. The first annual release will occur in July 2026. -Valorie Rice
The November goods and services trade deficit came in at $56.8 billion, up $27.6 billion from a revised $29.2 billion in October. November exports fell $10.9 billion to $292.1 billion, and November imports rose $16.8 billion to $348.9 billion. The increase in the deficit reflects an increase in the goods deficit of $27.9 billion to $86.9 billion and an increase in the service surplus of $0.3 billion to $30.1 billion. Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $32.9 billion, or 4.1%, from the same period last year, with exports rising 6.3% and imports rising 5.8%. The largest surpluses, in billions, were with Switzerland ($7.8), Netherlands ($5.6), and South and Central America ($5.1), while the greatest deficits were with Mexico ($17.8), Vietnam ($16.2), and Taiwan ($15.6). -Delaney O’Kray-Murphy
