This summary looks at single family homes over $500,000 in all areas of the Northeast Valley, including Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Fountain Hills, Rio Verde, Arcadia, Biltmore, Cave Creek and Carefree.

Supply has increased sharply over the last month. The number of active listings offered for sale as of November 1 is 2,314, up 20% from 1,935 last month and comprising 2,234 normal, 64 short sales and 16 lender-owned. Last year on the same date we had 1,864, with 1,713 normal, 122 short sales and 29 lender-owned. Supply is 24% higher than last year and showing the largest increase in several years. However there are relatively few homes in distress, no longer enough to have a significant effect on the market. Short sales are down by 48% and lender-owned homes down by 45% compared with a year ago. We certainly have enough luxury home listings to satisfy the present number of buyers and the market has become more favorable to buyers as a result. For homes priced over $2,000,000 there are 477 active listings, 21% more than last month. Supply in the range $800,000 to $1,000,000 has increased the least, up 12% from 308 to 344. There are now 5 lender-owned home and 8 short sales over $2,000,000, up from 4 and 3 last month.

There were 233 sales closed though ARMLS in October, the same as last month, and up 2% from the 229 we saw in October 2012. Since last December sales numbers have been impressive and this was the strongest October for sales over $500,000 that we have seen since 2006, when there were 278. There were 6 sales over $3,000,000 and 9 sales between $2,000,000 and $3,000,000. Sales were particularly strong for the $800,000 to $1,000,000 price range where sales were up 69% year on year to the highest level since 2005. 96% of sales were normal in October 2013 compared with only 82% last year.

Due to relatively low volumes and a wide range of price points, the Northeast Valley luxury market can display a lot of volatility if measured on a monthly basis. We therefore prefer to measure over a longer period in order to identify trends more accurately. The 12 month moving average hit a low point on two occasions in August 2011 and in February 2012, both around $219 per sq. ft. For the last 12 months we have seen a steady move upwards to around $245 per sq. ft. which is an increase of around 9% over the year and 12% above the low point. The six month moving average hit its low point of $215 in December 2011 and has now risen 16% since that point to $249. The three month moving average has moved from $213 in August 2011 to reach $252 in October 2013, a rise of 19%. These confirm a strong upward trend in luxury home prices over the last year, although there had been little movement during the summer.

The pricing for homes under contract was at a low point of $165 per sq. ft. in September 2011. Since then it has advanced to a peak of $232 as of May 1, but retreated during the summer. We usually see this price weakness during the heat of the summer. As of November 1 it is still standing at $232. The average under contract price for normal listings is $245 per sq. ft. The average for lender owned homes is $237 per sq. ft and short sales average $179.