Game three of the World Series between the Texas Rangers and the Arizona Diamondbacks is set for tonight. With the series tied at 1-1, JLL Research put together research using the regional office market as a proxy.
As the Texas Rangers prepare to square off against the Arizona Diamondbacks in the 2023 World Series, spectators will witness two of Major League Baseball’s best teams battle it out on the field amidst two of the strongest-performing real estate markets in the country. Globe Life Field in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) will play host to the Arizona Diamondbacks in Game 1 of Major League Baseball’s championship series. Just as these teams overpowered formidable competitors from gateway cities like New York, San Francisco and Los Angeles during the season, their hometowns of Dallas and Phoenix have drawn population from gateway markets over the past decade –with gains accelerating during the pandemic as they became magnets for workers seeking a lower cost of living, higher quality of life and less-severe pandemic-related restrictions.
Dallas and Phoenix have both been the beneficiaries of accelerated corporate migration during the past cycle, as several prominent employers relocated their headquarters or signed leases for major satellite campuses in these markets. Companies like JP Morgan, Liberty Mutual and Goldman Sachs have actively expanded in Dallas, while groups including PayPal, DoorDash and Carvana targeted Phoenix. Over the past 10 years, Dallas has registered the second-most net absorption of any office market in the U.S., while Phoenix saw the seventh-most net absorption despite being the 15th-largest office market.
While Dallas’s out-of-market growth has been sourced from a variety of markets and covers diverse industries, Phoenix’s growth has come largely at the expense of companies moving operations out of California –a coincidental parallel to the Arizona Diamondbacks shocking the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League Division Series.
World Series prediction using the regional office market as a proxy
While both Dallas and Phoenix are positioned to continue generating outpaced economic growth over the coming cycles, Dallas possesses an array of advantages. Dallas’s scale, economic might and role as a prominent hub for skilled talent support one of the top-performing office markets even among other demographically attractive Sun Belt cities such as Phoenix. Akin to the Rangers’ strong pitching staff and offensive power from the likes of Corey Seager and AdolisGarcia, these market advantages suggest an edge for the Texas Rangers.