Metro Phoenix ranks No. 3 among most cooled down housing markets
New home buyers are becoming more cautious. Rising mortgage rates and declining home sales have signaled the end of a hot housing market that has plagued buyers for over a year. According to the Census Bureau, home sales are down almost 18% since January 2022. However, some areas have cooled more than others. So, which housing markets have cooled down the most?
To uncover where housing markets are cooling off most, SmartAsset analyzed the 100 largest metro areas, 92 of which had complete data. We compared places across a total of eight metrics, split into two categories: price reduction and decreased demand. For details on our data sources and how we put all the information together to create our final rankings, read the Data and Methodology section below. But the analysis showed Metro Phoenix ranks No. 3 among the most cooled down housing markets.
California metro areas are cooling off the most. Three California metro areas rank in the top 10 for our study. In these areas, homes are staying on the market longer relative to a year ago – nearly double the amount of time. Moreover, all three areas have seen over a 33% decrease in the number of houses sold monthly from August 2021 to August 2022.
The share of listings with price cuts is up 10% from a year ago. Nationally, about 16% of home listings had a price cut in August 2021. Comparatively, that figure is now almost 26%.
Homes are on the market for less than 10 days in 36 metro areas. Last year, 67 metro areas fell into that category. Nationally, the average time on the market for a home listing currently stands at 13 days.
1. Boise, ID
The housing market in Boise, Idaho is cooling off the most relative to all other metro areas in our study. Boise has the sixth-lowest ratio of number of sold houses to new listings (0.49), meaning that almost twice as many houses are being listed relative to ones that are sold. The median days a house sits on the market is 20, and this figure is almost 186% higher than one year previously.
2. Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
The fourth-largest metro area in Texas has experienced a chill in its housing market with the fourth-largest decrease in demand and the 13th-largest price reductions. Across specific metrics, Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown has the second-highest median days on the market for home lists (27 days) and the fourth-worst ratio of houses sold to new listings (0.49).
3. Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, Arizona ranks No. 3 overall. The metro area has the fifth-highest percentage of house listings with a price cut (39.61%), which 25% point higher than a year ago. Additionally, the number of houses sold in a month has declined by more than 41% between August 2021 and August 2022.
4. San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, California ranks in the top 10 for both larger price reductions and lower demand. Houses are on the market for roughly 19 days (eighth-highest), which is a 90% increase since exactly one-year ago (18th-highest). There has also been a 43.17% decrease in the number of houses sold and 26.81% of current listings have a price cut.
5. Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV
Across all 92 metro areas we considered, Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, Nevada ranks worst for our decreased demand category. Over the past year, the number of houses sold monthly has fallen by about 44%. And as a result, Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise has the third-lowest ratio of number of sold houses to new listings (0.48), meaning that almost twice as many houses are being listed relative to ones that are sold.
6. Salt Lake City, UT
Salt Lake City, Utah has the eighth-largest decrease in demand and 16th-largest price reductions. Specifically, this area takes spots in the top 10 across five metrics including the percentage of listings with a price cut (41.89%) and the one-year change in the number of houses sold monthly (down 41.88%).
7. North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
Home prices in North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, Florida are experiencing significant reductions. As of August 2022, over 31% of house listings have a price cut and the average price cut as a percentage of the home value is almost 6%. Relative to one year previously, this is a 17% increase in the percentage of homes with a price cut.
8. San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
The San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, California metro area takes a top 15 spot across three metrics: the one-year change in houses sold (35.53% decrease), the one-year change in the median amount of time that a house is on the market (two times higher) and the percentage point difference between the share of listings with a price cut over a one-year period (17.78%).
9. Provo-Orem, UT
Price reductions on homes in Provo-Orem, Utah have been widespread. The metro area has the second-highest share of listings with a price cut (45.58%) and the largest increase in this figure relative to one year prior (26.26%). In terms of demand, there was a 57.38% decrease in houses sold in the area from August 2021 to August 2022 and there were nearly double the new listings compared to houses sold in August 2022.
10. Stockton, CA
Rounding out the top 10 is Stockton, California, which eighth-longer average number of days on the market for home listings (19 days) and the 10th-highest one-year change in the percentage of listings with a price cut (33.85%). As of August 2022, over a third of home listings in the area experience a price cut.
Methodology for most cooled down housing markets
To uncover which housing markets are cooling off most, SmartAsset compared data for the 100 largest metro areas, 92 of which had complete data. We compared these areas across two categories and a total of eight metrics:
- Percentage of listings with a price cut
- One-year change in the percentage of listings with a price cut
- Average price cut relative to average home value
- One-year change in average price cuts
- Ratio of houses sold to new listings
- One-year change in number of houses sold
- Median days on the market
- One-year change in median days on the market
Data for all metrics comes from Zillow and is for August 2021 and August 2022.
We ranked each metro area in every metric and found an average ranking and score for each category. We then found a final score, averaging the two category scores. The metro area with the highest cumulative score ranked at the top of our list.